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### Viewing cable 09RABAT1018, GUINEA LATEST: DADIS AND BEYOND?

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
09RABAT1018 | 2009-12-31 14:02 | 2010-12-09 21:09 | SECRET//NOFORN | Embassy Rabat

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    VZCZCXRO9054
    OO RUEHTRO
    DE RUEHRB #1018/01 3651455
    ZNY SSSSS ZZH
    O 311455Z DEC 09
    FM AMEMBASSY RABAT
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 1009
    INFO RUEHRY/AMEMBASSY CONAKRY IMMEDIATE 0013
    RUEHOU/AMEMBASSY OUAGADOUGOU IMMEDIATE 0593
    RUEHDS/USMISSION ADDIS ABABA IMMEDIATE
    RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK IMMEDIATE 0987
    RUCNMGH/MAGHREB COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
    RUEHAB/AMEMBASSY ABIDJAN PRIORITY 0081
    RUEHUJA/AMEMBASSY ABUJA PRIORITY 0101
    RUEHAR/AMEMBASSY ACCRA PRIORITY 0198
    RUEHBP/AMEMBASSY BAMAKO PRIORITY 0133
    RUEHJL/AMEMBASSY BANJUL PRIORITY 0105
    RUEHCO/AMEMBASSY COTONOU PRIORITY 0059
    RUEHDK/AMEMBASSY DAKAR PRIORITY 0518
    RUEHFN/AMEMBASSY FREETOWN PRIORITY 0038
    RUEHPC/AMEMBASSY LOME PRIORITY 0566
    RUEHMV/AMEMBASSY MONROVIA PRIORITY 0572
    RUEHNM/AMEMBASSY NIAMEY PRIORITY 1181
    RUEHTRO/AMEMBASSY TRIPOLI PRIORITY 0454
    RUEHOS/AMCONSUL LAGOS PRIORITY 0055

` `

    S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 RABAT 001018

    SIPDIS
    NOFORN

    STATE FOR AF, AF/W, NEA, NEA/MAG, AND INR/AA

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/01/2020
    TAGS: PINS PGOV PREL PINR GV MO
    SUBJECT: GUINEA LATEST: DADIS AND BEYOND?

    REF: A. RABAT 1009
    ¶B. RABAT 0988

    RABAT 00001018 001.2 OF 002

    Classified By: DCM Robert P. Jackson for reasons 1.4(b) and (d).

    ¶1. (S/NF) Summary: XXXXXXXXXXXX told PolOffs on
    December 30 that despite Dadis Camara's apparent desire to
    depart Morocco (Ref A), he is in no condition to travel and
    will not be able to resume control of the country. Minister
    of National Defense Sekouba Konate and an assistant, Mr. Bah,
    along with Minister of Communications Idrissa Cherif have
    been in Rabat to visit Dadis, but Konate planned to return to
    Guinea by December 31, possibly to present to the Guinean
    people a case for his assumption of power in place of Dadis.
    The next ten days would be telling and potentially chaotic
    for the country, according to XXXXXXXXXXXX, but with the
    assistance of the international community, Konate should be
    able to control the army and avert violence that could have
    regional implications. End Summary.

    ¶2. (S/NF) XXXXXXXXXXXX told PolOffs on December
    30 that Dadis Camara was in no condition to travel and would
    not be able to control Guinea again. XXXXXXXXXXXX said
    that Dadis Camara still had a bullet in his head, suffered from impaired
    vision and speech, and was not fully aware of his
    surroundings. XXXXXXXXXXXX  admitted that he had not
    seen Dadis; according to him only Konate and Bah were allowed
    into his room. Regarding earlier news reports that Dadis was
    preparing to speak to the Guinean people, XXXXXXXXXXXX
     said that if Dadis could speak to the media, he certainly would
    have by now. Evidently Dadis also suffered from heart
    problems unrelated to the gunshot wounds.

    ¶3. (S/NF) Konate evidently was not in the best of health,
    either, and sought medical consultation while here in Rabat.
    Reportedly a heavy drinker, Konate suffered from liver
    problems consistent with his intake of large amounts of
    alcohol. On December 30, senior Moroccan military officials
    separately questioned Konate's fitness to lead, calling him
    weak.

    ¶4. (S/NF) For XXXXXXXXXXXX,  Konate's travel to  Rabat allowed him to return to Guinea and report on the basis of his  first-hand knowledge that Dadis was unable to continue in his  role as leader of Guinea, paving the way for Konate to assume  power for a transitional period. Were Konate to attempt to  take control without having undertaken the trip to Rabat to  see Dadis, he would have been perceived as a traitor to Dadis  and have no legitimacy before the Guinean people and army.  Konate would then have Cherif and Claude Pivi, another CNDD  leader, arrested, XXXXXXXXXXXX said.

    ¶5. (S/NF) XXXXXXXXXXXX went on to say that Cherif
    was behind demonstrations being planned for Conakry,
    while Pivi, who was from the same ethnic group as Dadis,
    might organize supporters on an ethnic basis and incite
    clashes with other groups. Given that ethnic and national
    boundaries are not coterminous, this could affect neighboring
    countries and plunge the entire region into chaos (Ref B),
    asserted XXXXXXXXXXXX. With the help of the United States
    and European countries, Konate would be able to take power
    and control the army, which lacked discipline and had too many
    crooks and militias, but XXXXXXXXXXXX did not specify what sort of
    assistance from the international community would be
    necessary.

    ¶6. (S/NF) Comment: XXXXXXXXXXXX urged intervention, both to
    keep Dadis out of Guinea and to support an effort by Konate
    to take power in the country, in order to forestall
    devastating ethnic violence. His argument that Dadis would

    RABAT 00001018 002.2 OF 002

    have made a public statement by now if he could have is
    compelling, while his comment that Konate would have other
    CNDD leaders arrested suggests that the fate of Guinea does
    not depend on Dadis alone. Dadis has amassed militias and
    enjoys some popular support (Ref B), and for XXXXXXXXXXXX
     his return would undoubtedly lead to violence and unrest.
    His continued absence, however, might not preclude it.
    End Comment.

    ¶7. (U) Tripoli minimize considered.

    *****************************************
    Visit Embassy Rabat's Classified Website;
    http://www.intelink.sgov.gov/wiki/Portal:Moro cco
    *****************************************
    KAPLAN

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