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### Viewing cable 07HAVANA258, CUBA: HOW BELIEVABLE IS A FIDEL CASTRO COMEBACK?

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
07HAVANA258 | 2007-03-16 18:06 | 2010-12-17 22:10 | CONFIDENTIAL | US Interests Section Havana

`

    VZCZCXRO8161
    PP RUEHAG RUEHROV
    DE RUEHUB #0258/01 0751828
    ZNY CCCCC ZZH
    P 161828Z MAR 07
    FM USINT HAVANA
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 1454
    RHEHAAA/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
    INFO RUCNMEM/EU MEMBER STATES COLLECTIVE
    RUEHWH/WESTERN HEMISPHERIC AFFAIRS DIPL POSTS
    RUEHSW/AMEMBASSY BERN 0062
    RUEHROV/AMEMBASSY VATICAN 0050
    RUMIAAA/USCINCSO MIAMI FL
    RUESDM/JTLO MIAMI FL
    RUCOGCA/COMNAVBASE GUANTANAMO BAY CU

` `

    CLASSIFICATION: CONFIDENTIAL
    MISC:
    DESTINATION: VZCZCXRO8161
    PP RUEHAG RUEHROV
    DE RUEHUB #0258/01 0751828
    ZNY CCCCC ZZH
    P 161828Z MAR 07
    FM USINT HAVANA
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 1454
    RHEHAAA/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
    INFO RUCNMEM/EU MEMBER STATES COLLECTIVE
    RUEHWH/WESTERN HEMISPHERIC AFFAIRS DIPL POSTS
    RUEHSW/AMEMBASSY BERN 0062
    RUEHROV/AMEMBASSY VATICAN 0050
    RUMIAAA/USCINCSO MIAMI FL
    RUESDM/JTLO MIAMI FL
    RUCOGCA/COMNAVBASE GUANTANAMO BAY CU

    C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HAVANA 000258

    SIPDIS

    SIPDIS

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/16/2017
    TAGS: PGOV PINR CU
    SUBJECT: CUBA: HOW BELIEVABLE IS A FIDEL CASTRO COMEBACK?

    HAVANA 00000258  001.3 OF 002

    Classified By: COM Michael E. Parmly; Reasons 1.4 (b/d)

    ¶1. (C) Summary:  XXXXXXXXXXXX
    passed us a document March 14 that describes Fidel Castro's
    declining health, as analyzed by a respected, XXXXXXXXXXXX
    XXXXXXXXXXXX.  The document concludes by saying that Castro has a
    terminal condition, and will suffer an inevitable
    deterioration of his faculties until he dies.  But he is not
    about to die "immediately."  This contrasts with a flurry of
    news and public statements by key regime figures about Castro
    making a comeback, including his having spoken to Hugo Chavez
    on the phone while the latter was in Haiti.  We believe that
    a full comeback is unlikely, but that Fidel Castro is more of
    a presence behind the scenes -- and even "on stage" as a
    presence -- than he was a few months ago.  End Summary.

    ¶2. (U) Media have reported increased activity on the part of
    Fidel Castro this past week: Speaking on the phone to Hugo
    Chavez during the Venezuelan's visit to Haiti; and receiving
    Colombian author and long-time sympathizer Gabriel Garcia
    Marquez.  Both Foreign Minister Felipe Perez Roque (in
    Europe) and Parliamentary Speaker Ricardo Alarcon stated
    publicly that Fidel Castro was making a comeback and would
    return to the GOC's helm.  Alarcon's statement included
    Castro's "winning reelection for president" in 2008.  Interim
    dictator Raul Castro has kept a low profile during the past
    few weeks.

    ¶3. (C) XXXXXXXXXXXX passed COM and
    Pol-Econ Counselor a document based on XXXXXXXXXXXX interview with
    XXXXXXXXXXXX
    XXXXXXXXXXXX with an excellent reputation.  The
    document traces Fidel Castro's critical condition from its
    onset last July, through the various ups and downs with his
    local medical staff and with the visiting Spanish doctor,
    Garcia Sabrido.  Most of this repeats what has previously
    been reported, with one new development:  Castro has fired
    his long-time personal physician, Dr. Selman.  Informal
    translation of this document follows in Para 4.

    ¶4. (C) XXXXXXXXXXXX Statement:

    "The illness began in the plane from Holguin to Havana (Note:
    after a full day of July 26, 2006 activities.  End note).  As
    this was a short flight there was no doctor aboard and they
    had to land urgently once they knew of his bleeding.  He was
    diagnosed with diverticulitis of the colon.

    This illness is characterized by diverticulae in the large
    intestine, generally.  A diverticula is a protuberant sack in
    a segment of the intestine, not in itself necessarily
    dangerous.  Waste gets trapped in them, for example.
    Nevertheless, they can cause hemorrhaging, inflammation and
    infection, resulting in diverticulitis.  (Health Unit
    Comment:  Simple diverticulitis, without perforation,
    hemorrhaging or infection, is treatable.  End Comment.)

    The condition requires surgery when the diverticulae are
    gigantic, because they are more likely to become infected and
    burst.

    He had a perforation in the large intestine and needed to
    have a colostomy done; which he opposed, saying that they
    should splice out the infected part and reattach the
    intestine to his colon.  Dr. Selman, who was chief of the
    medical team, was in agreement, but the rest of the team
    opposed.  But Fidel Castro, capriciously, did not permit the
    colostomy.

    With the passage of time, as the colon was infected, the
    operation collapsed and the reattached part separated.  They
    had to operate again, but found a fistula.  It wasn't known
    at that time what he had, but normally a fistula in the
    abdomen has the effect of blocking the digestion of
    food--resulting in the loss of 40 pounds.  They began to feed
    him by IV serum, and they used a Korean-made device to treat
    the fistula, which didn't have much success.  That was when
    they called in the Spanish doctor, the one who said that they
    Cuban team had done what they could, but the correct
    treatment should have been a colostomy.

    At that point they removed Selman from the team, who is now
    working as a low-level doctor someplace else.

    XXXXXXXXXXXX explains that at his (Castro's) age

    HAVANA 00000258  002.3 OF 002

    this illness is not curable, and will notXXXXXXXXXXXX
    allow him to return to leading Cuba.  He won't die
    immediately, but he will progressively lose his faculties and
    become ever more debilitated until he dies."

    ¶5. (C) This report is consistent with our reporting that
    Fidel Castro probably came close to death in July, 2006, and
    then again around October.  Since then, as we have seen in
    video and audio broadcasts, Castro has been able to engage
    with Hugo Chavez and others for limited periods of
    conversation and other forms of carefully controlled
    activity.  He has not appeared live on TV or in any other
    public context during the entire period of his critical
    illness, which caused him to miss the September, 2006
    Non-Aligned summit and a large-scale celebration of his
    birthday and armed forces day in December, 2006.

    ¶6. (C) Cubans react to news about Fidel Castro with
    resignation and wild speculation.  XXXXXXXXXXXX
    XXXXXXXXXXXX that he thought last month's taped call-in
    by Castro to Hugo Chavez's radio show was fake and that he
    would die by May.  XXXXXXXXXXXX
    XXXXXXXXXXXX described the Castro illness as having a similar
    effect on the public as the Pope's 1998 visit:  Greatly
    raised expectation for change, followed by disappointment and
    reversion to the totalitarian norm.

    ¶7. (C) Comment:  We are missing too many variables to be able
    to predict accurately how many more months Fidel Castro will
    live.  Frankly, we don't believe anyone, including Castro
    himself, can state that with certainty.  However, while he is
    still alive, even in a reduced capacity, his presence has a
    chilling and retardant effect on Cuban society.  The high
    expectations for change are still out there, but are mostly
    associated with the idea that the dictator has to die first
    before anything substantial will happen.
    PARMLY

`