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### Viewing cable 09THEHAGUE264, NETHERLANDS/JSF FLYING INTO THE PERFECT STORM

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
09THEHAGUE264 | 2009-04-23 14:02 | 2011-01-17 00:12 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy The Hague

`

    VZCZCXYZ0000
    OO RUEHWEB

    DE RUEHTC #0264/01 1131458
    ZNY CCCCC ZZH
    O 231458Z APR 09
    FM AMEMBASSY THE HAGUE
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 2781
    INFO RUEHZG/NATO EU COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
    RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC PRIORITY
    RUEKJCS/CJCS WASHDC PRIORITY
    RUEKJCS/DIA WASHDC PRIORITY
    RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
    RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY

` `

    C O N F I D E N T I A L THE HAGUE 000264

    SIPDIS

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/22/2019
    TAGS: MARR MOPS NATO PINS PREL NL
    SUBJECT: NETHERLANDS/JSF FLYING INTO THE PERFECT STORM

    REF: A. 08 HAGUE 468
         ¶B. 07 HAGUE 714
         ¶C. 07 HAGUE 247
     ...

    203795,4/23/2009 14:58,09THEHAGUE264,"Embassy The Hague",
    CONFIDENTIAL,,"VZCZCXYZ0000
    OO RUEHWEB
    DE RUEHTC #0264/01 1131458
    ZNY CCCCC ZZH
    O 231458Z APR 09
    FM AMEMBASSY THE HAGUE
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 2781
    INFO RUEHZG/NATO EU COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
    RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC PRIORITY
    RUEKJCS/CJCS WASHDC PRIORITY
    RUEKJCS/DIA WASHDC PRIORITY
    RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
    RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
    ","C O N F I D E N T I A L THE HAGUE 000264
    SIPDIS
    E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/22/2019
    TAGS: MARR MOPS NATO PINS PREL NL
    SUBJECT: NETHERLANDS/JSF FLYING INTO THE PERFECT STORM
    REF: A. 08 HAGUE 468
    ¶B. 07 HAGUE 714
    ¶C. 07 HAGUE 247
    ¶D. 07 HAGUE 063
    Classified By: Charge d'Affairs Michael Gallagher for reasons 1.4 (b,d)
    ¶1. (C) Summary: The philosophical opposition of Labor Party
    members, the economic crisis, and unfavorable U.S. reports
    have brought Dutch support of the Joint Strike Fighter (JSF)
    Program to the political breaking point. Parliament is in a
    stalemate as it goes into a second day of emotionally charged
    debates. The future of Dutch JSF participation -- and the
    survival of the ruling coalition -- hangs in the balance.
    Post believes the coalition will survive, but any procurement
    of JSF test planes will come with a political cost. End
    Summary.
    Labor Party views:
    ------------------
    ¶2. (SBU) The Labor Party (PvdA) as a major coalition partner
    in the Dutch government has faced considerable pressure from
    the rank-and-file to oppose the JSF from the very beginning
    of the coalition (reftels B and C). The PvdA has always been
    philosophically opposed to being a partner in the development
    of the JSF. However, in 2006, party leaders were convinced
    during the formation of the coalition that they had to agree
    to a decision timeline on JSF in order to be a part of the
    coalition government. The coalition accord states ""The
    Memorandum of Understanding on the JSF test planes will be
    signed in 2007. In 2008 the business case will be reviewed
    before decision-making takes place in 2009 on signing the
    contract for the definite procurement of test planes. On the
    basis of the review and of comparison on price, quality, and
    term of delivery with possible other aircraft, the cabinet
    will present a decision to parliament in 2010 on the
    replacement of the F-16."" Under pressure from PvdA leader
    and Finance Minister Woulter Bos and PvdA floorleader
    Mariette Hamer, the PvdA congress on March 15 refrained from
    adopting resolutions on JSF and budget cuts. Hamer urged the
    congress to give the party leadership room to negotiate. At
    that time 83% of the PvdA rank and file opposed the purchase
    of the test aircraft.
    Economic crisis:
    ----------------
    ¶3. (SBU) The economic crisis has given a platform for the
    PvdA to rally against what is perceived as a costly program
    at a time where the funds should be used for critical
    services or offsetting the effects of the crisis. The
    handling of the crisis by PvdA party leader Bos has given him
    and the party a credibility that they can use for a political
    advantage. Bos did not disagree in March with a poll that
    showed that 84% of those interviewed believed that postponing
    the procurement of the JSF would be a good measure.
    Mixed U.S. signals:
    -------------------
    ¶4. (SBU) Adding to the complexities of the decision has been
    the mixed signals coming from various sectors within the U.S.
    Perhaps most often referred to by the PvdA has been the
    Government Accounting Office (GAO) reports that have been
    extremely critical of the JSF. This was compounded on a
    recent trip when a GAO official noted that it would be too
    risky to proceed with buying JSF aircraft. The uncertainty
    of the U.S. defense budget for the JSF and the subsequent
    impact on the overall cost of the program is also a concern
    to members of Parliament. This is the first time the Dutch
    have been in a major equipment development program vice an
    off-the-shelf purchase. The PvdA and opposition parties have
    Qoff-the-shelf purchase. The PvdA and opposition parties have
    been extremely critical at every stage of the business plan
    and have focused on each and every negative report or comment
    from any source, credible or not. The extensive number of
    articles clearly critical of the JSF from U.S. sources,
    specifically Winslow Wheeler and Pierre Sprey, continue to
    add fuel to the argument against the JSF program.
    Next steps:
    ----------
    ¶5. (SBU) Parliament will continue to debate JSF tonight.
    The Socialist Party will reportedly introduce a resolution
    calling on the government to end participation in JSF, and a
    majority of parliament appears ready to support that
    resolution. The cabinet will then consider, but is not bound
    by, the resolution. If the cabinet opposes the resolution
    and decides to proceed with the JSF test plane purchase, in
    effect disregarding parliament, opposition parties are then
    likely to propose a vote of no confidence. These decisions
    and votes could take place today, ahead of parliament's
    recess, or could require the parliament to reconvene on
    Tuesday, April 28.
    PvdA dilemma and prospects for a compromise:
    -------------------------------------------
    ¶6. (SBU) If/if there is a no confidence measure. PvdA members
    will face a difficult choice. If they oppose the no
    confidence measure, they undermine their opposition to JSF.
    If they support the no confidence measure, they bring down
    the government. With low numbers in the polls, PvdA would
    expect to lose seats and perhaps any role in a future
    coalition government. The largest coalition party, PM
    Balkenende,s Christian Democrats (CDA), also faces potential
    losses in an election. Despite these incentives for
    compromise, PvdA leaders have left themselves little room to
    change position, stating they will not support the purchase.
    They insist that it is premature to commit to JSF and that
    purchasing of the test aircraft de facto implies a decision
    in favor of buying JSF in the future. In addition, PvdA has
    seen a number of other political losses during their
    participation in the coalition government, including
    decisions on the Afghanistan deployment, the EU referendum,
    and road taxes. Nonetheless, PvdA leader Marriet Hamer has
    said this issue is not worth a cabinet crisis.
    Comment:
    --------
    ¶7. (C) COMMENT: The Parliamentary debate on the JSF is more
    about politics than it is about the merits of the program.
    The coalition will most likely survive this brinkmanship by
    the PvdA and the Christian Democrats (CDA) - the potential
    losses at the polls are too great -- but the storm will have
    damaged the credibility of both parties. The Dutch JSF
    program will continue to have fierce opponents, but
    ultimately the Dutch will probably purchase at least one test
    aircraft to remain a participant in the JSF program. The
    political damage and subsequent impact on next year's
    decision for the purchase of operational aircraft remains to
    be seen. END COMMENT.
    GALLAGHER

`