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### Viewing cable 09LISBON289, PORTUGUESE ELECTIONS: DOES ANYONE WANT TO WIN?

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
09LISBON289 | 2009-06-02 10:10 | 2010-12-12 21:09 | CONFIDENTIAL//NOFORN | Embassy Lisbon

`

    VZCZCXRO8194
    RR RUEHDBU RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHNP RUEHROV RUEHSR
    DE RUEHLI #0289/01 1531002
    ZNY CCCCC ZZH
    R 021002Z JUN 09
    FM AMEMBASSY LISBON
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 7645
    INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE

` `

    C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 LISBON 000289

    NOFORN
    SIPDIS

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/21/2019
    TAGS: PGOV PREL PO
    SUBJECT: PORTUGUESE ELECTIONS: DOES ANYONE WANT TO WIN?

    REF: LISBON 88

    Classified By: DEPUTY POL/ECON COUNSELOR TROY FITRELL FOR REASONS 1.4 (
    b, d)

    ¶1. (C/NF) Summary. This is a primer on each of Portugal's
    major parties and what is driving them for the election
    season, plus specific expectations for the June 7 European
    elections. Portugal has three elections this year; the June
    7 elections for the European Parliament, plus legislative and
    municipal elections later this autumn. Election season is in
    full swing, but major parties are riven with internal
    dissent. None of them is campaigning effectively and voter
    apathy is the major issue, as the European Parliament is
    divorced from Portuguese daily life. It appears that only a
    quarter of eligible voters will likely turn out June 7, and
    they will be voting for lists comprised of party insiders
    that inspire no one. Thus, the European elections will not
    be a litmus test for national elections or even a gauge of
    the national mood. The far left will likely pick up a few
    seats in the European Parliament, but ruling Socialist Prime
    Minister Socrates is most concerned about maintaining his
    absolute majority in Portugal's parliament. End summary.

    ¶2. (C/NF) Like many around the world, the Portuguese were
    enthralled by the U.S. election drama of 2008. One of the
    themes repeated endlessly in Portuguese commentary was
    admiration for the primary process in which voters winnow the
    candidate field through a succession of open plebiscites. In
    Portugal, however, the desire for a primary process has
    degenerated into internecine warfare within each party, such
    that none appear to have a strategy designed to win under
    Portugal's parliamentary party list system.

    ¶3. (C/NF) The June 7 elections for the European Parliament
    mark the first of Portugal's three elections this year.
    Portugal's legislative and local elections are expected in
    the autumn, by the end of October at the latest, with the
    dates to be determined. Editorialists are already opining
    about what the European elections will mean for Portugal's
    national elections. Indeed, political discourse is entirely
    focused on issues more appropriate to national elections,
    such as crime, unemployment, and infrastructure. The picture
    is complicated because this year's national elections will be
    the first to reserve one-third of the legislative seats for
    women. Also fueling internal bickering is that the
    Portuguese delegation to the European Parliament will shrink
    from 24 seats to 22 following institutional reforms, ensuring
    that at least two Portuguese politicians are going to have to
    give up the good life in Brussels and Strasbourg.

    ¶4. (C/NF) But European elections will tell us little about
    the national mood because so few people are expected to take
    part. Turnout at the European elections is traditionally
    quite low in Portugal, and it is unlikely to match the 2004
    turnout of 38 percent. None of the parties has engaged in
    major publicity campaigns; billboards are scarce and vague in
    message and few grassroots efforts are underway. Further
    depressing this year's turnout is that voting will be held on
    a holiday weekend.

    ¶5. (U) This is a primer on each of Portugal's major parties
    and what is driving them for the election season, plus
    specific expectations for the June 7 European elections.

    SOCIALIST PARTY (PS)
    --------------------
    ¶6. (C/NF) All signs ought to be positive for the ruling
    Socialists, but one would not know it by listening to them.
    Prime Minister Socrates took over a dysfunctional government
    apparatus and an economy in poor shape when the PS won
    parliament in 2005. Socrates presided over an austerity
    budget and significant internal reforms that largely got
    Portugal's economic problems under control, meeting EU
    benchmarks two years in advance. Socrates told us privately
    that the PS victory earned him political capital that "is
    only useful if you use it." To that end, Socrates overcame
    opposition from the trade unions that traditionally form the
    PS base in order to enact labor reforms, raising the
    retirement age and cutting benefits to address what he
    termed, "a demographic time bomb." Having fought -- and won
    -- those battles early in his tenure, Socrates was able to
    offer tax cuts and civil service pay increases this election
    year.

    ¶7. (C/NF) Socrates and his pragmatists have shifted the party
    to the center. While this has emasculated the opposition
    parties on the center-right and right, it has invigorated the
    smaller leftist parties and frustrated the vocal left wing of
    the PS itself. Socrates is betting that he can steal more
    support from the center than he will lose on the extreme
    left. He may be wrong for the short-term, but this may be an

    LISBON 00000289 002 OF 003

    astute move for the longer term, especially if he can hold on
    in national elections this fall. While shifting the party in
    regard to the political spectrum, Socrates is also looking at
    changing demographics throughout the country. The PS
    promotes itself as the party of Europe (and Socrates was
    midwife to the Lisbon Treaty in late 2007). On social issues
    like abortion, divorce, and gay marriage, PS policies are in
    line with European norms, but alienate the country's socially
    conservative Catholics, a key voting bloc.

    ¶8. (C/NF) One of the old lions of the left wing of the
    Socialist Party, Manuel Alegre, is often said to want to form
    his own party in rebellion against the centrist-drifting PS.
    He tells us privately that is not the case, although he would
    not rule it out publicly just yet. Alegre ran as an
    independent for the Portuguese Presidency in 2006, outpolling
    the PS candidate, but falling just short of the center-right
    PSD President Cavaco Silva. Rather than try to present a
    unified front now, PS International Secretary Jose Lello
    (presumably with Socrates' consent) has taken to attacking
    Alegre in the media on a regular basis, attacks that dominate
    coverage of the PS at the expense of any programmatic ideas
    they might wish to put forward.

    ¶9. (C/NF) Even though the PS needs to augment the number of
    women on its legislative list to meet the one third
    requirement, party leaders dumped three sitting female
    parliamentarians who are perceived to be Alegre supporters.
    Much media coverage of the party reflects leftist frustration
    that the PS "isn't Socialist anymore." Socrates remains
    upbeat, but will have difficulty governing should he lose the
    party's absolute majority in parliament. Corruption
    allegations against Socrates from his time as Environment
    Minister will not likely result in any formal sanction, but
    tarnish his image (Ref A).

    SOCIAL DEMOCRATIC PARTY (PSD)
    -----------------------------
    ¶10. (C/NF) The center-right PSD is the second largest
    Portuguese party and natural rival to the center-left PS.
    One might think the internal divisions in the PS would
    encourage the PSD to take advantage of the situation by
    forging internal unity. That has not happened, as the PSD is
    on its third leader in two years, with another leadership
    change possible before autumn elections. Current leader
    Manuela Ferreira Leite won an extremely tight three-way
    internal election last summer. Her selling point is that, as
    a former Economy Minister, she could fight the PS where they
    were traditionally weakest. Unfortunately, she was Economy
    Minister during the worst economy of the last twenty years,
    following which the then-PSD government was turfed out of
    power by a large majority that voted for the PS. Ferreira
    Leite subsequently denied her main rival, Pedro Passos
    Coelho, a party leadership position, freeing him to present
    his own proposals to the public in a nation-wide "listening
    tour." President Cavaco Silva is PSD but eschews party
    infighting and strives for balance within and among the
    parties.

    ¶11. (C/NF) PSD backbenchers argue so much about whether the
    party should promote "more tax cuts" or "better tax cuts"
    that no one really knows -- least of all the PSD
    parliamentarians themselves -- the party's position. The PSD
    polls well on infrastructure issues and is socially more
    Catholic than the PS. This keeps them in the picture,
    despite concerns regarding leadership ability. The PSD has a
    good chance to regain the Lisbon mayor's seat, with former
    Prime Minister Santana Lopes displacing the competent but
    abrasive PS Mayor Antonio Costa. The PSD has not been able
    to capitalize on Socrates' corruption allegations as a number
    of its own leaders face similar allegations.

    PEOPLE'S PARTY (CDS-PP)
    -----------------------
    ¶12. (C/NF) The right-of-center CDS-PP had the same leadership
    mess as the PSD, until former leader and former Defense
    Minister Paulo Portas returned to take the reins in April
    ¶2007. Portas can be abrasive but he is also highly
    respected. He has placed the CDS-PP in the center of most
    policy debates, filling the vacuum left by both the PS and
    PSD. Current polling data show the CDS-PP below the
    threshold for representation in the national parliament.
    With popular support at such low levels, the CDS-PP will
    likely not do well in the European elections, but many
    believe that Portas could rally support for national
    elections. The CDS-PP supporters are generally wealthy and
    well-educated, a small demographic in Portugal.

    FAR LEFT: COMMUNIST, LEFT BLOC, & GREENS (PCP, BE, & PEV)
    --------------------------------------------- ------------
    ¶13. (C/NF) The Portuguese Communist Party (PCP) used to be a
    major political force but is a shadow of its former self.

    LISBON 00000289 003 OF 003

    The Socialists' abandonment of the extreme left, however,
    gave the PCP a new lease on life, and it is polling at its
    former numbers, despite having no good leaders. The Left
    Bloc (BE), comprises the younger left. The BE was vocal and
    effective in opposition to PS reform proposals.

    ¶14. (C/NF) Both the PCP and BE are poised to gain support in
    national legislative elections, but are too small to govern.
    Each party hopes to form a coalition with the PS, not
    recognizing that the PS leadership is fleeing from the far
    left and would prefer a weak minority government to a
    coalition with the far left.

    ¶15. (C/NF) The "other" leftist party, the Greens (PEV) counts
    more on links to other green parties around the world than on
    any substantive platform. Global attention has helped the
    PEV's polling numbers somewhat, but the party recently kicked
    its one articulate and respected parliamentarian off of the
    national committee and is now left without a respected public
    representative.

    EUROPEAN ELECTION EXPECTATIONS
    ------------------------------
    ¶16. (U) The current 24-member Portuguese delegation to the
    European Parliament breaks down like this:

    PS: 12
    PSD: 7
    CDS-PP: 2
    PCP: 2
    BE: 1

    ¶17. (C/NF) PS list leader Vital Moreira got in the news for
    public shouting matches with PS left-wingers at campaign
    rallies and then for proposing a European-wide tax on
    financial transactions, which was lampooned by the opposition
    and repudiated by Prime Minister Socrates. The PS would be
    happy to keep ten seats in the new 22-seat delegation. No
    PSD leaders inspire confidence, but the PSD might maintain
    its hold on its seven seats at the expense of the CDS-PP (who
    ran a combined list with the PSD last time). The two seats
    the CDS-PP hold were won at the high water mark of the
    party's popularity and influence, so maintaining even one
    seat would be a success. The PCP and BE have small voter
    bases, but they tend to turn out strongly on election day.
    The PCP hopes to get four seats and the BE hopes to get
    three. It would be an extraordinary success if they reached
    seven seats combined, but they are certainly bound to have
    more than the three they currently hold.

    COMMENT
    -------
    ¶18. (C/NF) Does anyone want to win this thing? The ruling PS
    should be running away with all three rounds of Portuguese
    elections, given the PSD's hopeless management of the economy
    during its last turn in government, but internal bickering,
    silly gaffes, and the global economic crisis have left the
    door open to others. Corruption allegations affect virtually
    all the parties, but Portuguese voters appear not to be
    bothered by them. Polls indicate that most voters think all
    politicians are corrupt, so specific allegations -- like
    those facing PM Socrates -- are not a bar to office. In the
    final run-up to June 7 European elections, the campaigns have
    all turned to negative attacks on specific individuals, many
    of whom -- like Socrates and Portas -- are not currently
    candidates, a dubious strategy in an election process the
    uses a party list system.

    For more reporting from Embassy Lisbon and information about Portugal,
    please see our Intelink site:

    http://www.intelink.sgov.gov/wiki/portal:port ugal

    STEPHENSON

`