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### Viewing cable 09LIMA1659, Sendero Luminoso: Incremental Gains in Mixed Picture

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
09LIMA1659 | 2009-11-19 18:06 | 2010-12-12 21:09 | CONFIDENTIAL//NOFORN | Embassy Lima

`

    VZCZCXYZ0018
    RR RUEHWEB

    DE RUEHPE #1659/01 3231850
    ZNY CCCCC ZZH
    R 191850Z NOV 09
    FM AMEMBASSY LIMA
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0120
    INFO RHEHAAA/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC
    RUEHAC/AMEMBASSY ASUNCION
    RUEHBO/AMEMBASSY BOGOTA
    RUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA 0052
    RUEHBU/AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES
    RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS
    RUEHLP/AMEMBASSY LA PAZ
    RUEHMN/AMEMBASSY MONTEVIDEO
    RUEHPE/AMEMBASSY LIMA
    RUEHQT/AMEMBASSY QUITO
    RUEHSG/AMEMBASSY SANTIAGO

` `

    C O N F I D E N T I A L LIMA 001659

    SIPDIS
    NOFORN

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 2019/11/19
    TAGS: PTER SNAR SOCI PGOV MOPS PE
    SUBJECT: Sendero Luminoso: Incremental Gains in Mixed Picture

    REF: LIMA 1209; LIMA 1299 AND PREVIOUS; LIMA 1647; LIMA 1653

    CLASSIFIED BY: P. Michael McKinley, Ambassador; REASON: 1.4(B), (D)

    ¶1. (C) Summary. Most analysts believe Sendero Luminoso (SL)
    insurgents are making incremental gains in the Apurimac-Ene River
    Valley (VRAE). Local observers in Ayacucho say frustrations with
    government at every level have strengthened the anti-system
    opposition and in some cases generated sympathy for SL. In the
    most recent incident, SL elements attacked a provisional military
    base in the VRAE on November 5, killing one soldier and injuring
    four others. According to senior-level GOP officials, quashing SL
    in the VRAE remains a top government priority, and recent efforts
    include signing a $9 million contract with an Israeli defense
    specialist. Several SL members have expressed interest in
    participating in elections, but most politicians still see an
    association with the organization as a kiss of death. End summary.

    SL Expanding Influence in Ayacucho

    -------------------------------------------

    ¶2. (C) While there have been fewer casualties in the VRAE this
    year so far than last, according to Peruvian military sources, most
    analysts believe SL in the VRAE and environs is a growing threat.
    For one, the terrorist group has likely gained firepower over the
    past several years, fueled mostly by weapons stolen from security
    forces in recent attacks (refs). Observers have also told us SL's
    VRAE faction is particularly dangerous now because of its deceptive
    tactics. Whereas SL in the 80s was often gruesomely violent with
    villagers and grassroots organizations, today's incarnation now
    actively befriends and financially supports communities, in some
    cases seeking to supplant a state that has abandoned them.
    Several contacts in Ayacucho (where SL founder Abimael Guzman was a
    university professor) recently told us that Jose's "proseguir"
    faction in the VRAE has successfully branded itself as a kinder,
    gentler group, and is at least tacitly accepted by rural
    communities and by the very self-defense committees that played a
    pivotal role in the original SL's defeat.

    ¶3. (C) During a recent visit to Ayacucho, local contacts told us
    that general discontent and disillusionment with the government,
    and a particular distaste for the ruling APRA party, had expanded
    and deepened popular sympathy for "anti-system" alternatives. In
    some cases, movements that have espoused or used violence such as
    the "Etnocaceristas" (headed by Antauro Humala, who is currently
    serving a 25 year prison sentence for instigating a 2005 armed
    uprising in Andahuaylas) and SL itself have benefited from these
    anti-government sentiments. Several contacts told us that when
    Guzman's attorney Alfredo Crespo visited Ayacucho in September to
    tout Guzman's recently published book, he was warmly received by
    local radio stations, print media and university student groups.
    Others told us that pervasive corruption amongst local politicians
    made some people feel nostalgia for the days when SL would kill
    corrupt politicians as a warning to others. Several observers said
    that, with education, health, and employment opportunities sorely
    lacking, disgruntled locals willingly joined local defense fronts -
    whose leaders often have ideological ties with SL - in strikes and
    protests. In addition, jobless youth from the highlands frequently
    work stints as "burriers" for drug traffickers, who are deeply
    intertwined with SL in the VRAE.

    November 5 Attack
    ------------------------

    ¶4. (C) The most recent VRAE attack occurred on November 5, when
    one soldier was killed and four others wounded during a four-hour
    assault by Shining Path (SL) terrorists on a provisional military
    base located where the Vizcatan and Mantaro rivers meet. SL forces
    were repelled after attempting to overrun the base, which was

    manned by 45 soldiers from the 2nd Infantry Brigade. According to
    VRAE Military Region sources, the SL's motive was probably to
    obtain more weapons, and reflected "desperation" because it had
    been unable to dislodge any of the temporary military bases set up
    in the VRAE since Operation Excellence 777 began in August 2008.
    Other observers maintained that the Government's recently expanded
    rewards campaign for capturing SL leaders "Jose" in the VRAE and
    "Artemio" in the Upper Huallaga Valley (UHV) - the bounty on both
    their heads was increased from 500K to 1 million soles (roughly USD
    350K) -- may have also played a part in SL's belligerence. One
    prominent analyst, however, suggested that SL attacks on relatively
    fortified military bases rather than security patrols or
    helicopters vulnerable to ambush indicate SL was increasingly well
    equipped and regaining strength.

    VRAE Remains Top Focus

    ------------------------------

    ¶5. (C) According to senior GOP officials, quashing SL in the VRAE
    remains a top government priority. Defense Minister Rey has
    emphasized his intention to refocus Peru's security efforts on the
    internal threat. Media reports have alluded to the imminent
    purchase of several combat-capable helicopters (the armed forces
    only have about half a dozen operational helicopters, having lost
    two in the last few months [refs]), suitable for operations in the
    VRAE. According to government and congressional sources, the MOD
    is close to obtaining around USD 130 million from the Ministry of
    the Economy for VRAE operations. In a recent conversation with the
    Ambassador, FM Garcia Belaunde said that, notwithstanding tensions
    with Chile and an announced U.S. arms sales, the VRAE would remain
    Peru's central security focus. The GOP's efforts have even
    included signing a reported one year, $9 million contract with
    former Israeli Brigadier General Israel Baruch Ziv, who promised to
    help Peru defeat SL in the VRAE once and for all. According to
    media sources, Ziv will focus on training for elite special
    operations forces, strengthening intelligence networks, while
    Peruvian joint forces will prioritize the killing or capture of SL
    leaders rather than control of territory.

    SL in Politics

    ---------------

    ¶6. (C) Current and former SL members have expressed interest in
    participating in elections, but most politicians and parties still
    see any alliance or association with SL as politically toxic. We
    have heard that Guzman's attorney has publicly stated that SL would
    seek to participate in the 2010 regional and 2011 national
    elections. Guzman's partner and imprisoned SL leader, Elena
    Iparraguirre, publicly reiterated SL's interest, and even named
    Cajamarca priest, environmental activist and probable presidential
    aspirant Marco Arana as a possible political ally. (Arana quickly
    distanced himself publicly from Iparraguirre and SL.) Similarly, a
    controversy broke out after Elsa Malpartida, Andean Community
    parliamentarian representing Humala's Nationalist Party (PNP), was
    reported to have belonged to SL in the 1980s. Malpartida publicly
    argued that, like others in Peru's rural areas, she had been forced
    to cooperate with SL and had formally severed her ties long ago.
    Government officials, including Justice Minister Aurelio Pastor,
    have publicly stated that SL would be prohibited from participating
    in the political process because it remained a terrorist
    organization that consciously used violence for political ends.

    Comment: The Chile Distraction

    ---------------------------------------

    ¶7. (C) One problem with the continuing spy controversy that has
    roiled relations between Peru and Chile (refs) is that political
    calculations might compel the GOP to turn its attention (and

    resources) away from the country's real and immediate internal
    threat: the potentially reemerging SL terrorist threat and
    unchecked drug trafficking interests, particularly in the VRAE. So
    far, our Peruvian counterparts have assured us this will not
    happen.
    MCKINLEY

`