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### Viewing cable 09STOCKHOLM428, GAERC JULY 26-7 AGENDA: SWEDEN'S PRELIMINARY ITEMS

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
09STOCKHOLM428 | 2009-07-14 14:02 | 2011-01-13 05:05 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy Stockholm

`

    VZCZCXRO6973
    PP RUEHDBU RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHNP RUEHROV RUEHSL RUEHSR
    DE RUEHSM #0428/01 1951423
    ZNY CCCCC ZZH
    P 141423Z JUL 09
    FM AMEMBASSY STOCKHOLM
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 4510
    INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
    RUEHNR/AMEMBASSY NAIROBI PRIORITY 0158
    RUEHGO/AMEMBASSY RANGOON PRIORITY 0140
    RUEHRK/AMEMBASSY REYKJAVIK PRIORITY 0095
    RUEHSI/AMEMBASSY TBILISI PRIORITY 0148

` `

    C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 STOCKHOLM 000428

    SIPDIS

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/14/2018
    TAGS: PREL PARM IC NK BM SO IR KE GG UN EU SW
    SUBJECT: GAERC JULY 26-7 AGENDA: SWEDEN'S PRELIMINARY ITEMS

    Classified By: Pol Couns Marc Koehler for reasons 1.4 (B) & (D).

    ¶1. (C) Summary: On July 14, Poloffs met with MFA Deputy EU
    Correspondent Jonas Wendel to discuss the July 27-8 GAERC
    agenda.  He said that, as the Swedes intended, the agenda is
    short to focus discussion on the most important international
    issues.  Currently, there are three B items: conclusions on
    formulating a political strategy for Somalia; extending the
    mandates of EU Monitoring Mission (EUMM) and EU Special
    Representative (EUSR) Pierre Morel in Georgia; and the way
    forward with Iran (at lunch).  The possible A items are:
    support for the Kofi Annan reconciliation process in Kenya
    (at the request of the Dutch); Iceland's membership
    application (if submitted on time); widening sanctions on
    Burma; and UNSCR 1874 on extending sanctions on North Korea.
    End Summary.

    Somalia: EU's Political Strategy
    --------------------------------

    ¶2. (C) Wendel said the EU intends to give conclusions on the
    comprehensive political strategy that HiRep Solana began in
    June.  The draft strategy, written by the Commission and
    Council Secretariat, is currently under review by EU members.
     Wendel said Somalia is nearing a breaking point, and Sweden
    wants to sharpen the strategy to include a set of concrete
    contingencies should a crisis emerge.  Wendel thinks the
    strategy will be ready by the September GAERC.  In the
    discussion of Somalia, Wendel said that EU members are aware
    that Eritrea is "meddling" with Somalia, but it is too early
    to look at sanctions against Asmara.

    Georgia: Extending Mandates
    ---------------------------

    ¶3. (C) Extending the EUMM and EUSR's Morel's mandates are
    both up for discussion, said Wendel.  FM Bildt wants to focus
    on the technical aspects of extending the mandates, and avoid
    opening up the discussion to broader, political items,
    including the South Caucasus.  Nonetheless, a political
    rational is needed to prolong the mandates.  Sweden wants the
    conclusions to clearly state that Russia has not fulfilled
    all of its commitments since last August, and that South
    Ossetia and Abkhazia are part of Georgia.  Other Member
    States want weaker language that does not name Russia.
    Wendel said FM Carl Bildt will not "throw out" national
    interests and "will hold out as long as possible" to get
    stern language in the conclusions, although the "usual
    members" do not support the specific mention of the two
    regions.

    ¶4. (C) FM Bildt is traveling to the Caucasus on 16 July for a
    week as part of a Troika visit.  There are sensitivities to
    meeting with President Saakashvili, Wendel said, and Sweden
    does not support including him in the EUMM mandate
    discussions.  Bildt is hesitant about what can really be
    accomplished.

    Iran: Contingencies
    -------------------

    ¶5. (C) The discussion topics for this lunch item are still
    being determined, as the EU is waiting to see if the last
    local British Embassy employee is released.  Bildt has been
    in frequent contact with FM Mottaki, who, according to
    Wendel, is playing the "good guy."  However, failed attempts
    over the weekend to set up a call between Bildt and Mottaki
    have raised concern in Sweden.  If the British employee is
    not released by Thursday, the PSC meeting on Friday will be
    consumed with discussing the way ahead with Iran.  One option
    includes "complicating" the issuance of visas for Iranian
    diplomats and officials, and a public announcement of such.
    But visa restrictions would have "shaky legal grounds"
    because a handful of EU members do not require Iranian
    diplomats to have visas to travel.  The Swedes hope that the
    threat would be enough to push the Iranians to release the
    employee, but the Iranians are "experts at finding legal
    loopholes", according to Wendel.  The British might not be
    content with only complicating visa issuance, he added,
    noting that London still advocates pulling all EU Heads of
    Mission out of Iran.  Sweden opposes this, as do other Member
    States.

    ¶6. (C) If the employee is not released by July 26, then the
    Swedes anticipate the discussion to focus on withdrawing EU
    diplomats from Iran, even if temporarily.  The Swedes do not
    support this because "there might not be other cards to play"
    and they, along with other EU members, are concerned that
    their local employees in Tehran could be targeted in

    STOCKHOLM 00000428  002 OF 002

    retaliation.  Solidarity among EU members is strong, and if
    the discussion is emotionally charged, then the ministers
    might agree to a withdrawal.  Wendel added that the British
    are pleased with how Sweden has handled the situation.

    ¶7. (C) If the British Embassy hostage situation is resolved,
    then ministers will discuss the nuclear &crisis."  Wendel
    said that Sweden was happy with the G8 statement on Iran,
    especially because Russia and China supported it.  The UK
    wants a list of sanctions against Iranian entities to be
    prepared now, Wendel said, but Sweden would prefer to keep
    discussion at a general level because if the Iranians (or the
    Russians or the Chinese) became aware of the EU doing
    "specific" and "legal" work on additional sanctions, then
    they would complain that the EU was never serious about
    giving Iran time to respond to the P5 1 offer.  We realize,
    Wendel continued, that we have used this argument for two
    years now and "for our own credibility" Sweden might now have
    to go along with the consensus view of Member States.

    ¶8. (C) Wendel noted that Sweden assesses Iranian leaders have
    "not really made up their minds about where they want the
    process to end."  Will they settle for a break-out
    capability, or do they want to demonstrate their possession
    of a nuclear deterrent like North Korea has done?  Because
    Sweden thinks the Iranians are still trying to decide this,
    Wendel said that the "crunch time" will not come during their
    Presidency but rather during the follow-on Spanish
    Presidency.  Wendel added that Bildt has looked at the
    "assessments of many different countries" relating to the
    pace of Iranian enrichment activity and has concluded that it
    will be "three or four years" before Tehran will have a
    nuclear capability.

    A Items: Kenya, Iceland, Burma and North Korea
    ------------------------------

    -- (U) Kenya: At Dutch request, there will be conclusions in
    support of the Kofi Annan reconciliation process surrounding
    post-2008 elections.

    -- (U) Iceland: Applicant EU members are required to submit
    applications 14 days in advance of a GAERC, which was July 13
    in Iceland's case, said Wendel.  The Icelandic Parliament is
    "unsettled" on the issue, so the application might be delayed
    until September.  In addition, Iceland has not consulted
    beforehand with member countries, as is customary.  EU
    members have warned Sweden not to give preferential treatment
    to Iceland because it is a "Nordic brother."  Sweden, and
    Bildt, would very much like Iceland's membership to be one of
    the accomplishments of its EU Presidency, but Iceland's
    glacial movement on its application is dampening
    expectations.

    -- (U) Burma: The verdict in the trial of Aung San Suu Kyi
    might be known on July 24.  In this case, the EU will need to
    respond.  In the event of a guilty verdict, then the only
    response all EU members unanimously support, according to
    Wendel, is to blacklist the four trial judges.  Other ideas
    being floated, but lacking consensus, are to expand the list
    of banned luxury items and to limit sectoral investments by
    EU businesses.  If there is no verdict, then the EU will
    issue a statement.

    -- (U) North Korea: The GAERC will produce a paper regarding
    the new set of sanctions under UNSCR 1874.  Normally, a UN
    Security Council resolution should be adopted by the EU
    within 45 days, said Wendel.  There already is some agreement
    on the core set of new sanctions under UNSCR 1874, but the
    Council must agree whenever a common position is changed.
    Wendel noted that Sweden opposes France's proposed expansion
    of the list of luxury goods banned for export to the DPRK,
    but discussion on that topic is ongoing.
    SILVERMAN

`