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### Viewing cable 07CAIRO974, XXXXXXXXXXXX MP ON PRESIDENTIAL SUCCESSION

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
07CAIRO974 | 2007-04-04 17:05 | 2011-01-28 00:12 | SECRET | Embassy Cairo

`

    VZCZCXRO4822
    RR RUEHBC RUEHDE RUEHKUK RUEHROV
    DE RUEHEG #0974/01 0941717
    ZNY SSSSS ZZH
    R 041717Z APR 07
    FM AMEMBASSY CAIRO
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 4450
    INFO RUEHXK/ARAB ISRAELI COLLECTIVE
    RUEHEE/ARAB LEAGUE COLLECTIVE

` `

    S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 CAIRO 000974

    SIPDIS

    SIPDIS

    NSC FOR WATERS

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/03/2047
    TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM PHUM EG
    SUBJECT: XXXXXXXXXXXX MP ON PRESIDENTIAL SUCCESSION

    REF: A. 2006 CAIRO 4612
         ¶B. 2006 CAIRO 6600

    Classified By: Minister-Counselor for Economic and Political Affairs,
    William R. Stewart, for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

    ¶1. (C) Summary: In a recent meeting with poloff, XXXXXXXXXXXX
    parliamentarian XXXXXXXXXXXX discussed presidential son Gamal Mubarak's
    possible succession of his father, and opined that Gamal
    increasingly views Minister of Defense Mohamed Hussein
    Tantawi and EGIS head Omar Suleiman as a threat to his
    presidential ambitions.  XXXXXXXXXXXX alleged that Tantawi recently
    told him, in confidence, of his deepening frustration with
    Gamal.  End summary.

    ---------------------------------------------
    GAMAL ANGLING TO "GET RID" OF HIS COMPETITION
    ---------------------------------------------

    ¶2. (S) On March 29, XXXXXXXXXXXX noted to poloff his assessment that
    the recently approved constitutional amendments package is
    largely aimed at ensuring Gamal Mubarak's succession of his
    father, and "a more controllable, stable political scene when
    he does take the reins."  Opining that "Gamal and his clique"
    are becoming more confident in the inevitability of Gamal's
    succession, and are now angling to remove potential
    "stumbling blocks," XXXXXXXXXXXX said that speculation among Cairo's
    elite is that there could be a cabinet reshuffle as soon as
    May or June, in which Minister of Defense Tantawi and/or EGIS
    head Omar Suleiman would be replaced. "Those two are
    increasingly viewed as a threat by Gamal and those around
    him," and thus Gamal is reportedly pushing Mubarak to get
    them out of the way, so they "could not pose any problems" in
    the event of a succession.  XXXXXXXXXXXX speculated that "hitches"
    to a Gamal succession could occur if Mubarak died before
    installing his son: "Gamal knows this, and so wants to stack
    the deck in his favor as much as possible now, while Mubarak
    is firmly in control, just in case his father drops dead
    sooner rather than later."

    ¶3. (S) XXXXXXXXXXXX said XXXXXXXXXXXX had commented to him in a recent
    private meeting that, "he has had it 'up to here' with Gamal
    and his cronies, and the tremendous corruption they are
    facilitating." "XXXXXXXXXXXX told me he is having trouble sleeping
    at night," he continued, "and that he cannot stand what has
    happened to the country, and what may yet happen to the
    country."  Disappointed by the recent constitutional
    amendments, and skeptical about the will of either Mubarak or
    Gamal to push forward meaningful political reforms, XXXXXXXXXXXX
    said he viewed a post-Mubarak military coup as "the best
    possible way out for Egypt ... we are in a terrible spot, and
    that is the best of all the bad options available." (Note:
    XXXXXXXXXXXX provided no further details about a possible coup
    scenario, and appeared to simply be theorizing about the
    future.  To date, we have not heard other interlocutors
    speculate about a possible coup option.  End note).

    ----------------------------
    CURRENT GOSSIP IN PARLIAMENT
    ----------------------------

    ¶4. (C) XXXXXXXXXXXX said that parliamentarians are abuzz over rumors
    that, under newly amended constitutional Article 136 (which
    now gives the president the ability to dissolve the People's
    Assembly by executive decree alone, without a national
    referendum), the People,s Assembly will be dissolved in
    roughly a year, so as to rid it of the "troublesome" 88
    Muslim Brotherhood MP's.  New elections would then be held,
    but "as under the new constitutional amendments, there will
    be no direct judicial supervision of elections to help to
    guard against fraud, the government can be expected to
    engineer the results" so that there are far fewer MB MP,s in
    the new parliament. "The government is happy to deal with
    fairly tame and non-threatening oppositionists such as
    XXXXXXXXXXXX, Wafd, and Taggamu.  But they do not want such a
    powerful bloc of MB MP,s to remain, particularly when they
    would make the most noise in the event of a Gamal succession."

    ¶5. (C) In terms of his personal political aspirations, XXXXXXXXXXXX
    told poloff he has XXXXXXXXXXXX the XXXXXXXXXXXX, founded by XXXXXXXXXXXX

    ---------------------------------------
    XXXXXXXXXXXX
    ---------------------------------------

    ¶6. (C) XXXXXXXXXXXX noted that hisXXXXXXXXXXXX (per ref B, a
    XXXXXXXXXXXX), is XXXXXXXXXXXX at the XXXXXXXXXXXX, due to what XXXXXXXXXXXX termed the continuing XXXXXXXXXXXX.  According
    to XXXXXXXXXXXX, MinDef Tantawi called him XXXXXXXXXXXX to
    ensure that XXXXXXXXXXXX was satisfied as to how XXXXXXXXXXXX was being
    XXXXXXXXXXXX.  XXXXXXXXXXXX said he engaged XXXXXXXXXXXX with XXXXXXXXXXXX, asking him to help get XXXXXXXXXXXX, as he has already XXXXXXXXXXXX and
    "XXXXXXXXXXXX"  XXXXXXXXXXXX allegedly checked with XXXXXXXXXXXX,
    then replied that XXXXXXXXXXXX cannot be XXXXXXXXXXXX before he XXXXXXXXXXXX, as, "we are under terrible foreign pressure to
    XXXXXXXXXXXX, so cannot XXXXXXXXXXXX, as they will
    then criticize us for not XXXXXXXXXXXX too."  XXXXXXXXXXXX
    subsequent suggestion to XXXXXXXXXXXX both XXXXXXXXXXXX and XXXXXXXXXXXX went
    unheeded.  However, XXXXXXXXXXXX allegedly told XXXXXXXXXXXX that he had
    instructed XXXXXXXXXXXX to not
    undertake any procedures to divest XXXXXXXXXXXX of his
    XXXXXXXXXXXX; XXXXXXXXXXXX
    therefore believes XXXXXXXXXXXX will be able to re-assume XXXXXXXXXXXX

    ¶7. (S) Comment: While XXXXXXXXXXXX is a useful interlocutor and a
    well-placed parliamentarian, we stress that he is the only
    Embassy contact to date who has raised with us the spectre of
    a post-Mubarak military coup.  While discussion of
    presidential succession is a favorite parlor game in Cairo
    salons, hypothesizing about the acutely sensitive topic of a
    coup is certainly not regularly undertaken in Egyptian
    circles.
    RICCIARDONE

`