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### Viewing cable 10ABUDHABI97, CODEL LOWEY WITH UAE FOREIGN MINISTER ON IRAN

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
10ABUDHABI97 | 2010-02-22 12:12 | 2010-11-28 18:06 | SECRET//NOFORN | Embassy Abu Dhabi

`

    VZCZCXYZ0002
    OO RUEHWEB

    DE RUEHAD #0097/01 0531246
    ZNY SSSSS ZZH
    O R 221246Z FEB 10
    FM AMEMBASSY ABU DHABI
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0346
    INFO GULF COOPERATION COUNCIL COLLECTIVE
    IRAN COLLECTIVE
    RUEHDE/AMCONSUL DUBAI

` `

    S E C R E T ABU DHABI 000097

    NOFORN
    SIPDIS
    FOR NEA/ARP AND NEA/IR

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 2020/02/22
    TAGS: PREL PGOV ETTC UNSC IR AE
    SUBJECT: CODEL LOWEY WITH UAE FOREIGN MINISTER ON IRAN

    CLASSIFIED BY: Richard Olson, Ambassador; REASON: 1.4(B), (D)

    ¶1. (S/NF) Summary.  In a February 17 meeting, UAE Foreign Minister
    Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan (AbZ) discussed Iran with a
    four-member Congressional delegation led by Chairwoman Nita Lowey
    of the House Appropriations Subcommittee on Foreign Operations.
    AbZ told the Codel the nuclear issue is only one aspect of the Iran
    problem, and that Iran's regional meddling was a serious concern.
    He pledged the UAE's backing as the US rallies support for new
    sanctions but questioned whether they would achieve the desired
    effect.  AbZ noted the UAE's growing concern that Gulf allies were
    being shut out of Iran sanctions planning.  End Summary.

    IRAN'S REACTORS AND REACH

    -------------------------

    ¶2. (S/NF) AbZ began by expressing pride in the US-UAE 123 agreement
    and the bilateral relationship generally.  According to AbZ, the
    123 is a powerful example for the region and provides a transparent
    alternative to Iran's nuclear model.  The UAE views Iran as a huge
    problem that goes far beyond nuclear capabilities.  Iranian support
    for terrorism is broader than just Hamas and Hizballah.  Iran has
    influence in Afghanistan, Yemen, Kuwait, Bahrain, the Eastern
    Province of KSA, and Africa (AbZ mentioned Nigeria specifically).
    Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Venezuelan President Hugo
    Chavez have close, cooperative ties.  If Iran acquires nuclear
    weapons, the expeditionary aspect of its foreign policy will become
    ever more challenging for neighboring states.

    POSSIBILITY AND FUTILITY OF SANCTIONS

    -------------------------------------

    ¶3. (S/NF) Lowey asked what AbZ thought about tougher sanctions
    against Iran and how the UAE can help with China.  AbZ said the US
    and its allies "have to decide how to stop Iran" and that the UAE
    was surprised at the Chinese attitude.  AbZ noted the Emiratis and
    the Saudis have spoken to the Chinese, and the UAE expressed a
    willingness to expand its energy ties (Note: AbZ seemed to be
    indicating that this was intended as a carrot, but he acknowledged
    the difficulty of supplanting an Iran-China trade relationship that
    reached $50 billion last year.  End Note.)

    ¶4. (S/NF) AbZ urged quick action on tough new sanctions.  The UAE
    is conscientious in its efforts to enforce existing UNSC sanctions
    but the Iranians have been able to find other routes, bypassing UAE
    ports, to import what they need.  AbZ predicted that smart and
    swift implementation of new sanctions could still be ineffective
    but said that we must try.

    GULF NEIGHBORS FEELING LEFT OUT

    -------------------------------

    ¶5. (S/NF) AbZ highlighted a growing belief the UAE and the GCC are
    being left out of our Iran sanctions consultations.  AbZ told
    Chairwoman Lowey that the P5+1 negotiations with Iran should be
    expanded to included the GCC.  AbZ said there is a "trust barrier"
    to full GCC support for US policy, as there is a deep suspicion
    that the US is proceeding without consulting Gulf allies.

    ¶6. (S/NF) AbZ raised (as he likes to do regularly) the 2005 EU
    package offer to Iran that was briefed to the UAE by the Iranians,
    not the US or another ally.  Things have improved since then, but
    "we still need some serious trust building between the US, the EU,
    and the GCC" on this issue.  The DCM reminded AbZ (and the Codel)
    that there are extensive and privileged communications between the
    UAE and the USG on policy towards Iran and on sanctions planning.
    AbZ acknowledged there was trust from the UAE, but the rest of the
    GCC had continuing concerns.  "Your problem today is to fix your
    relations with the GCC, quickly.  A few countries in the region are
    already dealing with Iran as if they had the bomb."

    ¶7. (S/NF) AbZ said GCC states are left wondering what will happen
    to them in any deal the US and Iran reach through back channel
    conversations.  He compared the current multilateral conversations
    over Iran's nuclear program with negotiations over North Korea's
    nuclear program, asking why North Korea's neighbors are part of the
    Six Party negotiations, but the GCC is not equally involved in
    similar conversations about and with Iran.

    "WHAT IF?" SCENARIOS

    --------------------

    ¶8. (S/NF) In response to questions from members of Congress, AbZ
    said that if Iran goes nuclear others in the region will move
    forward on the same track and the nuclear nonproliferation treaty
    will completely break down.  He said a crisis or confrontation in
    the region would create oil supply problems worldwide.  14 million
    barrels a day pass through the Strait of Hormuz.  That said, he
    noted that the US and UAE militaries have plans to keep Hormuz
    clear.

    ¶9. (S) AbZ concluded the meeting with a soliloquy on the importance
    of a successful peace process between Israel and its neighbors as
    perhaps the most effective way of reducing Iran's regional
    influence.

    ¶10. (SBU) Members of Congress in attendance: Congresswoman Nita
    Lowey, Congressman Tom Cole, Congresswoman Barbara Lee,
    Congresswoman Donna Edwards.
    OLSON

`