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### Viewing cable 08STATE114173, NORDIC AND BALTIC POLITICAL DIRECTORS, OCTOBER 2

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
08STATE114173 | 2008-10-27 16:04 | 2011-01-13 05:05 | CONFIDENTIAL | Secretary of State

`

    VZCZCXYZ0008
    OO RUEHWEB

    DE RUEHC #4173 3011616
    ZNY CCCCC ZZH
    O 271610Z OCT 08
    FM SECSTATE WASHDC
    TO RUEHGB/AMEMBASSY BAGHDAD IMMEDIATE 0000
    RUEHCH/AMEMBASSY CHISINAU IMMEDIATE 0000
    RUEHCP/AMEMBASSY COPENHAGEN IMMEDIATE 0000
    RUEHHE/AMEMBASSY HELSINKI IMMEDIATE 0000
    RUEHBUL/AMEMBASSY KABUL IMMEDIATE 0000
    RUEHKV/AMEMBASSY KYIV IMMEDIATE 0000
    RUEHMO/AMEMBASSY MOSCOW IMMEDIATE 0000
    RUEHNY/AMEMBASSY OSLO IMMEDIATE 0000
    RUEHRK/AMEMBASSY REYKJAVIK IMMEDIATE 0000
    RUEHRA/AMEMBASSY RIGA IMMEDIATE 0000
    RUEHSM/AMEMBASSY STOCKHOLM IMMEDIATE 0000
    RUEHTL/AMEMBASSY TALLINN IMMEDIATE 0000
    RUEHSI/AMEMBASSY TBILISI IMMEDIATE 0000
    RUEHVL/AMEMBASSY VILNIUS IMMEDIATE 0000
    RUEHNO/USMISSION USNATO IMMEDIATE 0000
    RUEHVEN/USMISSION USOSCE IMMEDIATE 0000

` `

    C O N F I D E N T I A L STATE 114173

    SIPDIS

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/24/2018
    TAGS: KNEI PREL EUR BO GG RS UP XG SW NO LG LH IC EN FI
    DA, AF, IZ, MD
    SUBJECT: NORDIC AND BALTIC POLITICAL DIRECTORS, OCTOBER 2
    CONSULTATIONS IN VILNIUS

    Classified By: Classified by EUR Assistant Secretary Daniel Fried,
    Reasons: 1.4(b) and (d).

     ¶1. (C) Summary.  On October 2, political directors and other
    senior officials from the nine members of the Expanded
    Partnership
    in Northern Europe (E-PINE), including EUR Assistant
    Secretary Dan
    Fried, met in Vilnius for semi-annual consultations.  The
    principal
    issues discussed were Georgia, Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova,
    Iraq, and
    Afghanistan.  On Georgia, PolDirs exchanged views on how best
    to
    support that country's territorial integrity and democratic
    processes.
    With respect to Belarus, they agreed that the recent
    elections
    were disappointing, but that too much isolation might only
    serve
    to force the GOB closer to Russia.  The participants shared
    concerns
    over the political infighting in Ukraine, as well as over the
    possibility of Russian subversion in the Crimea.  They
    concurred that
    5 2 format remained the best way forward for Moldova.
    Participants
    reviewed the positive trends in Iraq, as well as recent areas
    of
    concern in Afghanistan, which they agreed reflected in part
    the
    need for stronger government institutions.  The U.S. will
    host
    the next e-PINE Political Directors' meeting in Washington
    in 2009.  End Summary.

    Georgia
    -------
    ¶2. (C) Swedish Political Director Bjorn Lyrvall led off the
    discussion on Georgia noting that Russia had failed to
    achieve
    its primary goal there, i.e. regime change.  He said it is
    important to maintain pressure on Russia to abide by the
    terms
    of the ceasefire.  He stressed the need to show support for
    Georgia, and to ensure Ministerial-level attendance at the
    October 22 donor conference.  Getting observers into the
    disputed
    regions is also very important.  The EU should work towards
    rollover
    to international observers in South Ossetia and Abkhazia,
    adding that
    Russian demands for restrictions on Georgian military and
    police
    movement are unacceptable.  He emphasized that business as
    usual
    with Russia is not possible.

    ¶3. (C) A/S Fried agreed that regime change was the ultimate
    goal
    of the Russian invasion and that while the GOR had failed for
    now,
    it is unlikely to give up.  It is therefore important to
    shore up
    the Georgian economy, help stabilize the political system,
    keep
    pressure on the GOG to reform and strengthen its democratic
    institutions, and to strengthen the military so Georgia can
    defend
    itself.  Russia and Georgia must be treated equally at
    negotiations;
    it should be clear that South Ossetia and Abkhazia are not on
    the
    same footing as Georgia.  Should Russia pull out of
    uncontested
    Georgia, then the acute phase of the crisis will be over. It
    is
    important to find a way forward that prevents Russia from
    shoring
    up any gains.

    ¶4. (C) Estonian Political Director Kull noted that there are
    challenges ahead in maintaining Georgia's territorial
    integrity
    and in ensuring EU cooperation.  The problem is that not all
    EU
    members agree about what needs to be done, especially on visa
    facilitation.  Danish Political Director Damsgaard agreed
    that
    there is a need to stress territorial integrity, and that the
    EU
    mandate concerns the whole of Georgia, including the
    contested areas.

    ¶5. (C) Latvian Political Director Usubs was most concerned
    about
    the October 15 international talks on security and stability
    in
    the Georgian regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia as
    provided
    for in the September 8 Sarkozy-Medvedev agreement.  He
    worried that
    Russia will pressure CIS countries, especially those with a
    need
    for energy, to recognize South Ossetia and Abkhazia.  The
    engagement
    of the EU in monitoring missions lends an element of
    credibility.
    Finland's Vierros agreed that the EU presence is welcome; she
    found
    it worrisome, however, that monitors are still having trouble
    accessing South Ossetia.

    ¶6. (C) A/S Fried reiterated that the August ceasefire should
    not be renegotiated - the six point plan calls for Russia's
    withdrawal to the lines of August 7.  If Russia shows it is
    serious in the October 15 conference, then we can respond
    seriously.
    If they are non-compliant, then we still have something to
    talk
    about.  However, if Russia wastes everyone's time with talk
    of no fly zones and arms embargoes, then we'll know how to
    respond to that as well.  We will not accept arrangements
    where South Ossetia, Abkhazia, and Georgia are treated as
    equals - they are not.  Russia may be testing the limits of
    the
    international community to see whether it can turn the
    meetings
    into a circus.  On the other hand, Russia itself may not know
    what it wants.

    ¶7. (C) Denmark's Damsgaard opined that the issue of MAP
    probably
    will not be solved in December for either Georgia or Ukraine
    and that there is a need to think constructively about how
    to get around that problem.  Estonian Political Director Kull
    was also concerned about Georgia's prospects for MAP
    in December, as some countries that had previously been
    supportive
    are now hesitant.  A/S Fried said that MAP is the right thing
    to do
    and that the U.S. is supportive.  Norwegian PolDir Ellefsen
    mentioned
    that there will probably be no agreement in December and that
    the
    allies will need to be creative, not confrontational.  It is
    also
    important that Russia understand that its actions have
    instilled
    fear in its neighbors.

    Belarus
    --------
    ¶8. (C) E-PINE participants largely concurred that
    notwithstanding
    some positive developments in Belarus, the recent elections
    were disappointing.  A/S Fried noted the USG had responded
    quickly
    to the release of political prisoners by temporarily lifting
    the sanctions on some companies and sending DAS Merkel to
    Minsk.  Pavilionis thought that isolating the regime too much
    would be a strategic mistake; most other e-PINE countries
    supported
    limited engagement with civil society groups, the opposition,
    and
    mid-level officials as a means to break Belarusian isolation.

    All thought that it was important to offer Belarus
    alternatives to
    dependence on Russia, but were hesitant to do much more for
    fear of
    rewarding bad behavior.

    Ukraine
    --------
    ¶9. (C) The Ukraine discussion focused on continued domestic
    political turmoil, the need for reform, and the potential
    for instability in Crimea.  Damsgaard noted that Ukraine
    needs to realize there is more to democracy than holding
    free and fair elections, adding that the GOU's constant
    internal power struggles undermined effective governance.
    Turning to the issue of NATO membership, A/S Fried pointed
    out that although Ukraine is ambivalent about being issued
    a MAP, its increasing engagement with the EU is a good thing.

    He expressed concern about possible Russian subversion in
    Crimea,
    adding that there is a need for more social programs
    and investment there and the Russians should not be allowed
    to
    operate freely.  Lyrvall suggested that although getting
    observers
    into Crimea would be very difficult, it would not be a bad
    idea
    to set up EU information offices to get visitors into the
    area.
    Pavilionis continued to urge MAP for Ukraine, fearing
    that talk of compromise at this stage would leave ministers
    nothing to discuss in December.

    Moldova
    --------
    ¶10. (C) Vierros began the discussion on Moldova, saying that
    the OSCE's overall objective at present is formal 5 2
    negotiations.  Romania would like to be integrated into the
    format, but its participation should be channeled through
    the EU.  Russian influence in Transnistria is increasing
    and they are trying to re-launch their 2003 federation plan.
    A/S Fried said that Moldova should not feel compelled to
    adopt
    a plan that is bad for the country, reiterating USG support
    for the 5 2 talks.  The Moldovan constitution ensures
    neutrality
    and the USG is not needed as a guarantor of that.  If that is
    what Moldova wants, then it is their choice; neutrality is no
    hindrance to bilateral cooperation.  Lyrvall noted that the
    EU needs
    to make Moldova an attractive option for Transnistria and
    that
    the EU can be helpful in that regard through an enhanced
    agreement and confidence-building measures.  Pavilionis
    thought
    that Moldova is a partial success and that now is the time
    for
    the EU to get serious and complete its mandate, to prolong
    EUBAM
    and develop its role.  The EU also needs to be ready to
    develop
    a civilian mission there.

    Iraq
    ----
    ¶11. (C) Estonia's Kull led off the Iraq discussion, noting
    that
    the on-going conflict is a challenge to trans-Atlantic
    relations,
    counter-terrorism efforts, and Muslim-Christian relations.
    He
    was pleased the GOI is more able to control the security
    situation
    now, but questioned how it will do when the number of foreign
    troops decreases.  The Maliki government's pressure to limit
    foreign
    troops is creating problems reaching agreement on the SOFA
    and
    he expressed hope that this will be resolved by the end of
    the year.
    A/S Fried thanked the e-PINE countries for their various
    contributions.

    Afghanistan
    -----------
    ¶12. (C) Ellefsen led the discussion, noting the increasing
    pessimism in Kabul, which he said pointed to the need for
    stronger government institutions and more coordination.
    A/S Fried said that there are a number of problems that
    must be tackled including better civil-military coordination
    and the need for a stronger coalition. He emphasized the need
    to support the Afghan military as it expands and that the USG
    has asked most of the e-PINE countries to contribute to that
    effort.  We appreciate the efforts of contributors and know
    that there are many challenges ahead.  Lithuania agreed with
    A/S Fried's assessment of the situation and thanked the U.S.
    for its assistance with their PRT in Ghor Province and the
    Swedes for their assistance on the Herat road feasibility
    study.

    Participants
    -------------
    ¶13. (U) Participants:

    Denmark
    ¶A. Carsten Damsgaard    Political Director
    William Boe Deputy Director,
          European Neighborhood and Russia Dept.

    Estonia
    Clyde Kull  Political Director
    Jaan Salulaid     Counselor

    Finland
    Pilvi-Sisko Vierros     Political Director
    Sari Rautio First Secretary

    Iceland
    Nikilas Hannigan  Deputy Political Director

    Latvia
    Peteris Ustubs    Political Director
    Kristaps Brusbardis       European Correspondent

    Lithuania
    Zygimantas Pavilionis   Political Director
    Egidijus Navikas  European Correspondent

    Norway
    Vegard Ellefsen   Political Director
    Stephanie Bjoro   Senior Executive Officer

    Sweden
    Bjorn Lyrvall     Director-General for Political Affairs
    Anna Hammarlund Blixt   European Correspondent

    United States
    Daniel Fried      Assistant Secretary for European
    and Eurasian Affairs
    Joseph Boski      Political Officer, Embassy Vilnius
    Julie-Anne Peterson     e-PINE Coordinator, EUR/NB
    RICE

`