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### Viewing cable 08USNATO208, USD(P) EDELMAN BRIEFS ON AFGHANISTAN AND PAKISTAN

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
08USNATO208 | 2008-06-18 13:01 | 2010-12-02 21:09 | SECRET//NOFORN | Mission USNATO

`

    VZCZCXRO2333
    PP RUEHPW
    DE RUEHNO #0208/01 1701326
    ZNY SSSSS ZZH
    P 181326Z JUN 08
    FM USMISSION USNATO
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 1978
    INFO RUCNAFG/AFGHANISTAN COLLECTIVE
    RUEHZG/NATO EU COLLECTIVE
    RUEHAM/AMEMBASSY AMMAN 0371
    RUEHKB/AMEMBASSY BAKU 0097
    RUEHBY/AMEMBASSY CANBERRA 0391
    RUEHKV/AMEMBASSY KYIV 0107
    RUEHUL/AMEMBASSY SEOUL 0378
    RUEHGP/AMEMBASSY SINGAPORE 0177
    RUEHSQ/AMEMBASSY SKOPJE 3384
    RUEHSI/AMEMBASSY TBILISI 5602
    RUEHTI/AMEMBASSY TIRANA 4520
    RUEHWL/AMEMBASSY WELLINGTON 0241
    RUEHVB/AMEMBASSY ZAGREB 5501
    RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
    RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 0698
    RHEFDIA/DIA WASHDC
    RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
    RUEKJCS/CJCS WASHDC
    RHMFISS/CDR USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL
    RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHDC
    RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
    RUEPGBA/CDR USEUCOM INTEL VAIHINGEN GE
    RUEHNO/USDELMC BRUSSELS BE

` `

    S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 04 USNATO 000208

    NOFORN
    SIPDIS

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/11/2018
    TAGS: NATO PREL MOPS MARR AF PK
    SUBJECT: USD(P) EDELMAN BRIEFS ON AFGHANISTAN AND PAKISTAN
    AT NATO

    Classified By: Ambassador Victoria Nuland, for reasons 1.4(B) and (D).

    ¶1. (C)  SUMMARY.  Under Secretary of Defense for Policy Eric
    Edelman used his June 5 meeting with NATO PermReps and a
    separate session with NATO SYG de Hoop Scheffer to brief on
    his May 27-June 5 visit to Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Lebanon
    and to urge Allies to contribute more to Afghan police
    training and use their political influence with Islamabad.
    USDP Edelman said he found President Karzai concerned about
    political turmoil in Pakistan and recent border developments.
    Meanwhile, Pakistan's new political leadership
    underestimates the threat from its domestic insurgency, and
    its military is in need of retraining to confront it.
    Regarding Lebanon, USDP Edelman was "more optimistic" than he
    had expected to be.  END SUMMARY.

    ------------------------
    AFGHANISTAN AND PAKISTAN
    ------------------------

    ¶2. (C)  Under Secretary of Defense for Policy Eric Edelman
    told NATO PermReps on June 5 that, after his recent visit to
    Kabul and Islamabad, he believes Afghanistan will require a
    long-term approach that focuses efforts on improving local
    governance and security.  Among his findings:

    - (C)  Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) are far along
    in their plans to assume leadership for security in Kabul
    city this summer.  ANSF are already providing "95 percent" of
    Kabul's security.

    - (C)  In the next few months, the U.S.-led Combined Security
    Transition Command- Afghanistan (CSTC-A) will be short more
    than 100 district-level 12-person Police Mentoring Teams
    (PMTs).  European countries are well-suited for the high-end
    training of police, and Germany and Italy have already
    expressed interest.  Focused District Development (FDD),
    CSTC-A's police training program, gets the Afghan National
    Police (ANP) to about "the 80 percent level", but PMTs are
    needed to mentor them and finish their training.  Edelman
    reported that on his visit to Kapisa province (in RC-East,
    where French forces will soon deploy) the difference was
    clear between towns where the ANP was trained and operating
    effectively versus areas where they were not and as a result
    the Taliban was active.

    - (C) Local governance is key to success.  USDP Edelman
    encouraged Allies to support the GoA's Independent
    Directorate for Local Governance (IDLG).  The estimated cost
    to implement the overall IDLG strategy over a five-year
    period is USD 296 million, of which USD 26 million is for
    IDLG's recently unveiled Afghan Social Outreach Program
    (ASOP) that focuses on developing local governance in eleven
    troubled provinces.

    - (C)  UN SRSG Kai Eide needs support, especially in New York
    where Allies should help ensure he gets the financial and
    staffing resources he requests.

    - (C)  The enemy is adaptive.  Officials in Regional Command
    East and Regional Command Capital have seen an uptick in
    insurgent attacks in Khost, Nangarhar, Kabul, and other areas
    where ISAF has been successful with its development projects.
    The enemy realizes it must destroy what has been built or
    risk losing the support of the people.

    USNATO 00000208  002 OF 004

    - (C)  The Pakistani leadership, including the President,
    Prime Minister, Defense Minister and new National Security
    Advisor all say they are committed to fighting terrorism.
    Edelman raised with them U.S. concerns about the peace
    agreements in the tribal areas, noting that ISAF already sees
    an increase in incidents in eastern Afghanistan attributable
    to reduced pressure on militants in Pakistan.

    - (C)  Pakistan has two fundamental problems:  the insurgency
    in the Federal Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), which the
    political class underestimates because it remains focused on
    political machinations in Islamabad; and the grave economic
    crisis, characterized by low growth and balance of payments
    problems, which are exacerbated by political instability.
    Edelman urged Allies to weigh in with Islamabad on the need
    for a strong counterinsurgency effort, to visit Pakistan at
    the senior level, and to consider economic development
    programs in the tribal areas.

    -----------------
    PermRep Questions
    -----------------

    ¶3. (C) In response to the Greek ambassador, USDP Edelman
    commented that he is not overly concerned about the
    possibility that Karzai might seek to manipulate local
    governance and development programs for his electoral ends,
    because his political base and the root of the insurgency
    overlap in the Pashtun areas.

    ¶4. (C)  In response to the UK ambassador, Edelman noted that
    Pakistani CHOD Kayani has told senior U.S. officials that he
    wants the Pakistani military out of politics, but he noted
    that the army needs retraining and reequipping to confront
    domestic extremists with a counterinsurgency strategy, since
    it is currently oriented towards the Indian threat.  In
    Kabul, Edelman added, he found Karzai eager to divert
    attention to Pakistan as a source of all of Afghanistan's
    problems.

    ¶5. (C)  In response to the Czech ambassador, USDP Edelman
    commented that the U.S. wants to reinvigorate the Tripartite
    Commission and has a very active mil-to-mil relationship with
    Pakistan.  Admiral Mullen and other senior U.S. officials
    make frequent visits to Islamabad.

    ¶6. (C)  In response to the French ambassador, Edelman said
    that neither ISAF nor the Afghan government has been
    successful on counternarcotics, and that eradication programs
    focus mostly on small farmers, making some Allies uneasy.
    Edelman urged greater focus on drug labs and high-value
    targets, such as drug traffickers who are also insurgents.
    He pointed out that U.S. Marines in Garmsir District of
    Helmand Province discovered a Taliban poppy "agro-business"
    had sprung up in the absence of a GoA/ISAF presence.  The UK
    ambassador added that going after traffickers and high-value
    targets has not had a negative effect on local opinion, in
    the UK's experience.  Ambassador Nuland commented that doing
    nothing about narcotics also damages ISAF's image with
    Afghans and noted "neutrality is not an option" when dealing
    with traffickers.

    ¶7. (C)  In response to the Italian ambassador, Edelman
    commented that our efforts to strengthen local governance do
    not undermine the Afghan central government because there has
    never been a tradition of strong central government.  The

    USNATO 00000208  003 OF 004

    best approach is to improve local governance and then link it
    to the central government in Kabul.

    ¶8. (C)  In response to the Norwegian ambassador, Edelman
    expressed optimism regarding the transition to the ANSF of
    security in Kabul, noting that the ANSF have shown
    improvement.  Regarding Provincial Reconstruction Teams
    (PRTs), Edelman similarly urged a phased transition to allow
    the Afghans to assume more and more responsibilities.
    Transition will occur at different paces in different places
    and should not be viewed as ISAF's exit strategy.

    ¶9. (C)  In response to the Polish ambassador, Edelman said
    that Karzai sees two fronts (Iran and Pakistan) to his
    dilemmas.  Edelman noted that when the U.S. Marines went into
    Garmsir District recently, they learned a lot of new
    information about insurgent and narcotics activities, and he
    is concerned that a similar "blind spot" may exist in Nimruz
    along the border with Iran.

    ¶10. (C)  In response to the Canadian representative, Edelman
    said that the notion of a unified approach to the Pashtun
    problems in both Afghanistan and Pakistan was something U.S.
    policy makers had considered, but it would be difficult to
    implement on both sides of the border.

    -------
    LEBANON
    -------

    ¶11. (C) In response to the Greek ambassador, USDP Edelman
    said this was his third visit to Beirut in six months and he
    said he was "more optimistic than expected."  President
    Suleiman is now more self-assured than he had been as CHOD
    and gave an impressive inaugural speech.  Still to play out
    is the question of whether Hezbollah over-reached and damaged
    itself by taking up arms against Lebanese in the recent
    crisis.  He added that he is skeptical that the recent
    Syrian/Israeli dialogue will be successful given the nature
    of the Damascus regime.  Edelman noted that the U.S. is
    developing a good mil-to-mil bilateral relationship with
    Lebanon.

    -----------------------
    SecGen de Hoop Scheffer
    -----------------------

    ¶12. (S//NF)  In his conversation with NATO SYG Jaap de Hoop
    Scheffer, USDP Edelman said that he had raised with Karzai
    the latter's unhelpful comments in Der Spiegel ("I wish I Had
    the Taliban as My Soldiers"), and that Karzai apologized and
    claimed he was misquoted.  SecGen commented on a similar
    interview with the Indian press saying that such coverage
    could lead parliaments in troop contributing nations to
    question the value of sending their troops to Afghanistan.
    SecGen wondered aloud which Karzai would show up for the
    Afghan Donors, Conference in Paris-- the erratic Pashtun
    politician or the rational national leader.  Edelman observed
    that Karzai seemed preoccupied with blaming Pakistan for
    Afghanistan's problems.  SecGen responded that this does not
    bode well for efforts to reinvigorate the Tripartite
    Commission.

    ¶13. (S//NF)  SecGen reported that attempts to update the
    Kosovo Operations Plan had run aground due to Turkish
    "paranoia".  The Turks have prevented PermReps from

    USNATO 00000208  004 OF 004

    discussing the updated plan because of concerns about their
    relationship with the European Union.  SecGen asked for U.S.
    assistance in convincing the Turks to be more flexible.

    ¶14. (S//NF)  SecGen indicated that he disagreed with the U.S.
    response to Turkish complaints about the possible involvement
    of Greek aircraft from a disputed island in the Aegean in
    NATO exercises.  He is concerned that this could lead toward
    a situation in which NATO could never exercise in the Aegean.

    ¶15. (U) USDP Edelman has cleared this cable.
    NULAND

`