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### Viewing cable 08BERLIN1387, GERMANY: BUNDESTAG SET TO RENEW A BEEFED-UP ISAF

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
08BERLIN1387 | 2008-10-10 17:05 | 2010-12-02 21:09 | CONFIDENTIAL//NOFORN | Embassy Berlin
Appears in these articles: http://www.spiegel.de

`

    VZCZCXYZ0000
    OO RUEHWEB

    DE RUEHRL #1387/01 2841731
    ZNY CCCCC ZZH
    O 101731Z OCT 08
    FM AMEMBASSY BERLIN
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 2351
    RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC IMMEDIATE
    INFO RUEHZG/NATO EU COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
    RUEHBUL/AMEMBASSY KABUL PRIORITY 0564
    RHMFISS/COMSOCEUR VAIHINGEN GE PRIORITY
    RHMFISS/CDRUSAREUR HEIDELBERG GE PRIORITY
    RHMFISS/HQ USAFE RAMSTEIN AB GE PRIORITY
    RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE PRIORITY
    RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
    RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY

` `

    C O N F I D E N T I A L BERLIN 001387

    NOFORN

    SIPDIS

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/09/2018
    TAGS: PREL MARR PGOV AF GM
    SUBJECT: GERMANY: BUNDESTAG SET TO RENEW A BEEFED-UP ISAF
    MANDATE AND A SCALED-DOWN OEF COUNTERPART

    REF: A. BERLIN 1045
    ¶B. SECDEF MSG DTG 301601z SEP 08

    Classified By: CHARGE D'AFFAIRES JOHN KOENIG. REASONS: 1.4 (B) AND (D).

    ¶1. (C/NF) SUMMARY: The Bundestag is expected to approve on
    October 16 a 14-month extension of the parliamentary mandate
    that authorizes Bundeswehr participation in the NATO ISAF
    mission in Afghanistan. The renewed ISAF mandate will
    continue to limit German forces essentially to the north of
    Afghanistan, although provisions for deploying some
    non-combat support in the rest of the country will be spelled
    out for the first time. The renewed mandate will have a
    significantly higher troop ceiling (an increase from 3,500 to
    4,500), allowing Germany to fulfill its commitments on ANA
    training and offering additional flexibility in responding to
    crisis situations and in surging forces in support of the
    Afghan presidential election. The renewed ISAF mandate will
    not include authorization to participate in the planned NATO
    AWACS mission, thereby requiring the government to seek a
    separate stand-alone mandate once there is a NATO decision.
    The new mandate will also not include expanded authority to
    conduct counternarcotics interdiction, as has been requested
    by SACEUR. Meanwhile, Chancellor Merkel, FM Steinmeier and
    DefMin Jung have agreed to eliminate the German Special
    Forces (KSK) element from the separate OEF parliamentary
    mandate when it comes up for renewal in November. Steinmeier
    and the SPD have been spinning this in the media as an SPD
    success, much to the annoyance of the Chancellery.
    Eliminating the controversial KSK element -- which has gone
    unused for the past four years -- was seen as a price to pay
    to ensure strong parliamentary support (especially in the
    SPD) for renewal of the ISAF mandate. The elimination of the
    KSK element from the OEF mandate may open opportunities for
    the USG to press Germany to increase its Special Forces
    capability within ISAF. END SUMMARY.

    Large majority expected for mandate renewal

    ¶2. (SBU) The German cabinet agreed October 7 to seek a
    14-month extension of the parliamentary mandate that
    authorizes Bundeswehr participation in the NATO ISAF mission
    in Afghanistan. This longer mandate (the normal mandate
    period is one year) is intended to ensure that the
    mandate will not come up for renewal until after the seating
    of the new Bundestag following the September 2009
    parliamentary election, diminishing Afghanistan as a campaign
    issue next year. The Bundestag held the first reading of the
    draft mandate right after cabinet approval
    and is scheduled to vote on it October 16. All indications
    are that the mandate extension will be approved by a wide
    margin, with all the Bundestag parties supporting it, except
    for the small Left Party, which opposes all overseas
    deployments and which has consistently voted as a solid block
    against the mandate. Most Green Party parliamentarians
    either abstained or voted against the mandate last year, but
    are expected to support it this time around, given that their
    concerns about the possible combat role of the German Tornado
    reconnaissance aircraft under the mandate have not
    materialized.

    Rolling-over the previous mandate

    ¶3. (C) The proposed mandate is similar to the existing one,
    which essentially limits German forces to the north of
    Afghanistan. The mandate technically allows deployments,
    limited in time and scope, outside the north on an
    exceptional basis, if deemed by the German defense
    minister to be absolutely essential to the ISAF mission. But
    up to now, the German government has been very reluctant to
    exercise this authority in regard to combat forces. For
    example, the government still does not allow German
    Operational and Mentoring Liaison Teams (OMLTs) to
    accompany their assigned Afghan National Army (ANA) units on
    deployments outside the north. With less than a year to go
    before Bundestag elections, we anticipate the government will
    remain exceedingly cautious and conservative in making use of
    the exception in the mandate.

    New features in renewed mandate

    ¶4. (SBU) While the renewed mandate will be mostly unchanged,
    there are a few notable improvements:

    -- Increase in the troop ceiling from the 3,500 to 4,500:
    Germany is currently right up against the 3,500 troop ceiling
    because of the need over the past several months to
    deploy additional troops to respond to the deteriorating
    security situation in the north, to fill in for departing
    Allied troops (primarily Czech and Danish soldiers who
    re-deployed to the south and east), and to take on new tasks
    (like the 200-man RC-North Quick Reaction Force). Defense
    Minister Jung has emphasized that the increase in the troop
    ceiling does not mean Germany will be sending an additional
    1,000 soldiers to Afghanistan immediately. While there may
    be a small increase in troops right away (up to 3,800 or
    3,900) so that Germany can fulfill its previous ANA training
    commitments, the rest of the additional troop authorization
    will be held in reserve. It will be used to give military
    leaders additional flexibility in responding to crisis
    situations and in surging forces in support of the 2009
    Afghan presidential elections.

    -- Blanket authorization to exceed the troop ceiling during
    rotations: This will give the Bundeswehr more flexibility in
    moving units in and out of Afghanistan without having to
    worry about temporarily exceeding the troop ceiling.

    -- Explicit permission for certain units and assets to
    operate throughout Afghanistan: Some 30 radio operators have
    been based in Kandahar for more than a year under the
    exception in the mandate that allows time-limited deployments
    outside the north. Under the new mandate, they
    will be covered as a permanent deployment. Other assets and
    personnel that will be included in this category:
    Psychological operations personnel, Tornado reconnaissance
    aircraft, C-160 aircraft providing intra-theater airlift, and
    MEDEVAC helicopters.

    No authorization for awacs

    ¶5. (C) After much hand-wringing over the summer about the
    potential impact on maintaining a strict divide between
    Operation Enduring Freedom (OEF) and ISAF (ref A), the
    government was prepared to include an authorization in the
    renewed ISAF mandate for German air crews to
    participate in the proposed NATO AWACS mission in
    Afghanistan. But those plans were dashed in late September
    when France blocked a NATO decision giving the green light
    for planning the mission. MFA officials have rejected
    including language in the renewed ISAF mandate that would
    anticipate a future NATO decision on AWACS, claiming that the
    Bundestag would oppose this as a "blank check." As a result,
    the renewed ISAF mandate will be completely silent
    on the issue, requiring, therefore, the government to seek a
    separate stand-alone mandate on AWACS later once there is a
    NATO decision authorizing the mission. We have been assured
    by senior sources in the Chancellery (protect) that Germany
    will approve the required mandate for the deployment of
    German AWACS crews, once NATO approves the AWACS mission.

    ¶6. (C) Current thinking in the MFA is that the government
    will not seek a AWACS mandate until the end of the NATO
    decision-making process, when all the details over financing
    and stationing of the NATO AWACS have been worked out. This
    ensures that there will be a decent interval between approval
    of the ISAF mandate and the need for the government to go
    back to the Bundestag for the stand-alone AWACS mandate. MFA
    officials acknowledge that waiting until the end of the
    process to seek Bundestag authorization also ensures that
    they do not waste political capital on obtaining a mandate
    that may never be used because of possible problems or delays
    in NATO decision-making.

    No additional authority on counternarcotics

    ¶7. (C) The renewed ISAF mandate will also contain no expanded
    authorization for the Bundeswehr soldiers to engage in
    counternarcotics (CN) interdiction in Afghanistan. According
    to xxxxxxxxxxxx, the Chancellery supported
    including language to expand ISAF CN tasks in the Bundestag
    mandate, but was pushed back by DefMin Jung. At this stage,

    German officials remain opposed to a Bundeswehr lead role in
    CN interdiction operations. xxxxxxxxxxxx
    told the DCM that Germany would try to support the temporary
    "opt in" arrangement endorsed by NATO Defense Ministers at
    their October 9-10 meeting in Budapest. He saw potential
    problems, including with the Bundestag, if Allies that "opt
    in" need to draw on common ISAF capabilities. He said
    assurances on this score would be helpful. The MFA has also
    stressed its reservations about other Allies or ISAF
    contributors taking a lead role in CN operations, for fear of
    the knock-on effects for German forces. As a result, under
    the renewed ISAF mandate, the Bundeswehr will be limited to
    the CN support activities already outlined in the current
    ISAF Operations Plan (OPLAN).

    No deadline for withdrawal

    ¶8. (U) Peter Ramsauer, the Bundestag leader of the Christian
    Social Union (CSU), the Bavarian sister party of Chancellor
    Merkel's CDU, had publicly advocated adopting an "exit
    strategy" and setting a timeline for the eventual withdrawal
    of the Bundeswehr from Afghanistan, but this was rejected by
    both Merkel and Steinmeier. A government spokesman said the
    Chancellor and Foreign Minister "were agreed that it would be
    irresponsible to discuss a withdrawal deadline or an end of
    the mandate now."

    Oef mandate

    ¶9. (C) There is a separate parliamentary mandate that covers
    the Bundeswehr's participation in OEF, the renewal of which
    will be debated and voted on in November. The current
    mandate authorizes the deployment of up to 100 German Special
    Forces (KSK) in Afghanistan as well as the deployment of
    naval personnel and ships around the Horn of Africa. The
    current OEF troop ceiling is 1,400, but only about 250
    Bundeswehr military personnel are now deployed under the
    mandate, all of whom participate in the maritime mission; the
    KSK reportedly has not been deployed to Afghanistan under OEF
    in the last four years. Jung announced months ago that he
    planned to seek a reduction in the OEF ceiling to 800 during
    the next mandate renewal.

    ¶10. (S/NF) One of the most dramatic developments in recent
    weeks has been the decision of the government to eliminate
    the German Special Forces (KSK) element from the separate OEF
    parliamentary mandate when it comes up for renewal in
    November. Steinmeier and his Social Democratic Party (SPD)
    have spun this to the public as their achievement.
    Eliminating the controversial KSK element -- which has gone
    unused for the past four years -- was seen by the governing
    coalition as a price to pay to ensure strong parliamentary
    support, especially in the SPD, for renewal of the ISAF
    mandate. xxxxxxxxxxxx While deleting the
    KSK from the OEF mandate will have no practical effect on the
    ground in Afghanistan, it will formally end Germany's
    participation in OEF in Afghanistan, which could be
    misconstrued by some as a symbolic step back from supporting
    the war on terror.

    Total cost of mission: over 1 billion euros per year

    ¶11. (SBU) Germany's military deployment is expected to cost
    almost 700 million Euros over the next year. Combined with
    the 140 million Euros that it has budgeted for
    reconstruction, development and humanitarian assistance, plus
    what it spends on the police training mission, Germany's
    total outlay per year for the mission in Afghanistan is now
    more than 1 billion Euros.

    Comment

    ¶12. (C) Germany remains committed to the ISAF mission
    without time limits or conditions and has steadily increased
    its overall contributions and filled all the shortfalls in
    its region. However, up to now, it has remained unwilling to
    deploy combat troops outside the north. The elimination of
    the KSK element from the OEF mandate may open opportunities
    to seek greater use of German Special Forces on a
    country-wide basis under ISAF. The KSK is, in fact, already
    deployed in Afghanistan, and has been for months, but is
    apparently there under German national control to track down
    those responsible for recent attacks on the Bundeswehr. As
    far as we are aware, the KSK has not yet been made available
    to COMISAF for ISAF missions outside the north, even though
    such missions could be covered under the exception in the
    ISAF mandate. Convincing the Germans to make the KSK
    available for country-wide missions under ISAF would take
    time and would probably require direct engagement with
    Chancellor Merkel and FM Steinmeier. Even after general
    approval was received, each specific deployment outside the
    north would likely require the consent of DefMin Jung as
    specified in the ISAF mandate.
    Koenig

`