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### Viewing cable 04THEHAGUE2735, CAUTIOUS DUTCH REACTION TO EC REPORT ON TURKEY

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
04THEHAGUE2735 | 2004-10-22 15:03 | 2011-01-17 00:12 | UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY | Embassy The Hague

`

    This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

` `

    UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 THE HAGUE 002735

    SIPDIS

    SENSITIVE

    E.O. 12958: N/A
    TAGS: PREL PGOV TU NL EUN
    SUBJECT: CAUTIOUS DUTCH REACTION TO EC REPORT ON TURKEY

    THIS CABLE IS SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED.  PLEASE HANDLE
    ACCORDINGLY.

    1...

    21950,10/22/2004 15:09,04THEHAGUE2735,"Embassy The Hague",UNCLASSIFIED//FOR
    OFFICIAL USE ONLY,,"This record is a partial extract of the original cable.
    The full text of the original cable is not available.
    ","UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 THE HAGUE 002735
    SIPDIS
    SENSITIVE
    E.O. 12958: N/A
    TAGS: PREL PGOV TU NL EUN
    SUBJECT: CAUTIOUS DUTCH REACTION TO EC REPORT ON TURKEY
    THIS CABLE IS SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED. PLEASE HANDLE
    ACCORDINGLY.
    ¶1. (SBU) Summary: The Dutch government has officially
    characterized the October 6 European Commission report on
    Turkey, including its recommendation that a date be set for
    accession negotiations, as ""a good basis for decision making
    by the European Council in December."" Parliament also
    received the report favorably, with all major parties in
    favor of starting negotiations -- albeit disagreeing on
    when. The Dutch public, however, remains skeptical about
    Turkey's European credentials, although calls for a
    referendum on Turkish accession have so far gained no
    momentum. The government will continue to tread cautiously
    on Turkey, seeking to balance its EU Presidency obligations
    against the mixed feelings of Dutch citizens while trying to
    avoid divisions within the ruling coalition. End summary.
    Government's public reaction
    ----------------------------
    ¶2. (SBU) Immediately following the October 6 publication of
    the EC report on Turkey, acting Dutch Prime Minister Gerrit
    Zalm described the report as ""thorough and balanced"" and ""a
    good basis"" for decision making in December."" Zalm, who had
    formerly been highly critical of Turkish accession to the
    EU, stopped short of endorsing beginning negotiations, but
    stressed that Dutch citizens should be ""reassured"" by
    Commission proposals for an extended transition period for
    Turkish migrants after accession and the condition that
    accession not drain the EU budget. He also stressed that
    ""positive developments"" in the areas of human rights,
    freedom of speech, and religious freedom ""must continue.""
    Perhaps anticipating domestic criticism of the government's
    response to the report, Zalm emphasized that the
    Netherlands' ""mouth is gagged"" while it holds the EU
    Presidency as other member states monitor Dutch comments
    closely.
    ¶3. (SBU) A few days later on October 15, the GONL sent a
    letter to parliament reiterating Zalm's earlier comments.
    Again finding the Report to be ""a good basis for decision
    making in December,"" the letter stated that ""The decision on
    whether or not to open negotiations will have to take into
    account the suggestions and issues raised by the Commission""
    -- again stopping short of an outright endorsement of
    beginning negotiations.
    ¶4. (SBU) Explaining the government's letter to the press,
    acting Prime Minister Zalm hinted that the Dutch cabinet was
    itself divided on how soon negotiations with Turkey should
    begin. He was confident, however, that the cabinet would
    have a clear position on the matter by the time of the
    December European Council. Zalm described Foreign Minister
    Bot's public speculation that negotiations could probably
    start in the second half of 2005 (and could not be put off
    until 2008, as some suggested) as premature.
    Parliament's reaction
    ---------------------
    ¶5. (SBU) The Commission report was well received in the
    Dutch parliament. All the main political parties supported
    starting negotiations with Turkey on the conditions proposed
    by the Commission. They remain divided, however, as to when
    these negotiations should begin. Spokesmen for the
    coalition Christian Democratic (CDA) and Liberal (VVD)
    parties urged caution; CDA floorleader Verhagen, for
    example, argued against setting a date until Turkey is in
    full compliance with the Copenhagen criteria on respect for
    human rights and the rule of law. Verhagen and the
    spokesmen for the other major parties, however, also made
    clear that they would not bind the government's hands, and
    that they would support an EU consensus decision.
    Public opinion skeptical but can be won over
    --------------------------------------------
    ¶6. (SBU) Large elements of public, and some smaller parties
    in parliament, remain skeptical about the benefits of
    Turkish accession. Geert Wilders, the former VVD (Liberal)
    party member who recently split with the party leadership on
    this issue, continues to attract followers from those
    worried about inflows of Turkish workers. Several recent
    polls indicate that if a referendum on Turkish accession (as
    proposed in France) were held today, a majority would
    oppose. On the other hand, although some politicians,
    including VVD leader van Aartsen, have called for a such a
    referendum, so far there has been no obvious momentum for
    it.
    ¶7. (SBU) While skeptical, the Dutch public does not come out
    strongly opposed to starting negotiations on Turkish
    accession. According to an October 5 poll, 53 percent
    support starting negotiations, and 61 percent support future
    accession if Turkey has complied with a clear set of
    criteria. Supporters list among Turkey's advantages that it
    would be a bridge to the Arab world, that membership would
    enhance European security, and that Turkey would benefit to
    the Union's economy.
    COMMENT:
    -------
    ¶8. (SBU) Although skeptical, the pragmatic Dutch seem
    prepared, in the main, to go along with an EU consensus
    decision to begin negotiations on Turkish accession on a
    date to be determined by the European Council in December.
    That said, underlying doubts about Turkish accession -- and
    suspicions about the EU in general -- still have the
    potential to create domestic political challenges for the
    coalition, especially if Wilders or others are able to
    mobilize this dissatisfaction into an effective political
    force. For now, the government is treading cautiously
    rather than aggressively preparing the population for a
    positive decision in December.
    Russel

`