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### Viewing cable 09OSLO146, DREAMS IN POLAR FOG: PROPOSED NORDIC EFENSE AND

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
09OSLO146 | 2009-03-06 11:11 | 2011-01-13 05:05 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy Oslo

`

    VZCZCXRO2028
    RR RUEHSR
    DE RUEHNY #0146/01 0651129
    ZNY CCCCC ZZH
    R 061129Z MAR 09
    FM AMEMBASSY OSLO
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 7402
    INFO RUEHXP/ALL NATO POST COLLECTIVE
    RUEHHE/AMEMBASSY HELSINKI 8061
    RUEHMO/AMEMBASSY MOSCOW 4038
    RUEHSM/AMEMBASSY STOCKHOLM 3373
    RUEHNY/ODC OSLO NO
    RUEHNY/USDAO OSLO NO
    RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE
    RUEHVEN/USMISSION USOSCE 0259
    RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 0303
    RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
    RHMFISS/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC
    RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC

` `

    C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 OSLO 000146

    SIPDIS

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/06/2019
    TAGS: PNR PGOV PREL MARR MCAP MOPS DA IC FI SW
    SUBJECT: DREAMS IN POLAR FOG: PROPOSED NORDIC EFENSE AND
    SECURITY COOPERATION

    REF: 08 OSLO 54

    Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission Kevin . Johnson
    for reasons 1.4 b and d

    1.(C) Summay: Challenged to re-invigorate Nordic
    cooperation, former Norwegian Foreign Minister (and father of
    PM Jens Stoltenberg) Thorvald Stoltenberg presented 13
    recommendations proposing greater civil and military
    cooperation and a Nordic version of NATO's Article Five.
    Stoltenberg delivered his wide-ranging (and non-binding)
    recommendations at the February 9 meeting of the Nordic
    Foreign Ministers.  Norway's current FM, Jonas Gahr Stoere,
    hailed the report as historic and modern.  Reactions from
    other Norwegian policy-makers has been less enthusiastic, but
    several of the recommendations have potential to increase
    Nordic capabilities and cooperation in international
    operations, a plus for the UN and NATO. In addition, the U.S.
    could propose specific areas where we see Nordic cooperation
    contributing to NATO or U.S. priorities. End Summary.

    A Nordic Article Five?
    ---------------------

    2.(C) The most attention-grabbing of Stoltenberg's ideas was
    his call for a Nordic declaration of solidarity, including a
    mutually binding security policy guarantee.  In his
    introductory press conference, Stoltenberg stressed that this
    proposal was not designed to take the place of existing
    treaty commitments, but should be viewed as something
    additional.  Nonetheless, this idea was seen by some as a
    potential challenge to Swedish and Finnish neutrality and to
    Norway's traditional transatlantic orientation.  Reaction in
    Norway has been largely dismissive of the idea but it is easy
    to see echoes of a call by the Norwegian Socialist Left
    Party's defense spokesman for a division of labor in the
    Nordics with Finland responsible for a joint army, Sweden for
    the air force and Norway for the navy.  Senior Norwegian
    officials including the PM's foreign policy advisor and the
    MFA's political director have privately indicated to us that
    there is little or no interest in a Nordic solidarity
    declaration in the GON.

    Saving Money and Sharing Responsibilities
    -----------------------------------------

    3.(U) Declining defense budgets across the Nordic region have
    already inspired the Chiefs of Defense (CHOD) of Norway,
    Sweden and Finland to conduct a study on areas of possible
    cooperation.  Stoltenberg expands on the CHODs' study,
    proposing joint medical units, transport and lift capability
    (both air and sea), cooperation in training and education
    (including firing and exercise ranges) and joint equipment
    upgrades and purchases.  Stoltenberg singled out army
    material as particularly promising citing the common use of
    all Nordics (with the exception of non-military Iceland) of
    Leopard 2 battle tanks, CV-90 combat vehicles and Sisu Pasi
    armored personnel carriers.   Stoltenberg also proposed
    developing a joint amphibious unit, based on current
    cooperation between Sweden and Finland, which could be
    deployed anywhere in the Nordics and in international
    operations.

    4.(C) Lest Iceland feel neglected, Stoltenberg proposed that
    the Nordics take on part of the responsibility for air
    surveillance and patrolling over Iceland.  Initially this
    would be through participation in the regular Northern Viking
    exercises, followed by rotations in the NATO air patrol
    rotations and a possible permanent presence at Keflavik air
    base.  Norway and Denmark already participate in the NATO
    program.  Swedish and Finnish participation would require
    finalization of an agreement between NATO and Sweden and
    Finland on data exchange with NATO's air defense system.   In
    theory this sort of cooperation could be a practical example
    of cooperation under the Partnership for Peace program.
    Surprisingly, Norwegian officials have been very critical of
    this proposal, with the MFA's Political Director and the PM's
    International Advisor both expressing strong dislike for this
    item.

    OSLO 00000146  002 OF 003

    Keeping an eye on Polar Bears and Russians
    ------------------------------------------

    5.(U) Maritime monitoring is a central focus of the report
    with three separate but interrelated recommendations.  These
    include establishing a Nordic maritime monitoring system, a
    joint maritime response force, and a joint satellite system
    for surveillance and communications.  The monitoring system
    and the satellite proposal all reflect the need for
    improvements in the ability to monitor civilian and military
    shipping, environmental data and pollution.  This need will
    increase if shipping volume in the region increases due to
    sea ice melting or development of energy projects such as the
    Shtockman field.  Norway is in the process of developing a
    civilian-military Barents Sea monitoring system called
    Barents Watch, and Sweden and Finland are currently expanding
    their joint defense surveillance system to the entire Baltic
    Sea.  Stoltenberg calls for a joint Nordic effort to ensure
    that national efforts are combatable and do not replicate
    functions.  A joint satellite would allow for complete and
    constant monitoring of the entire Nordic region, as well as
    enabling secure communications in the event of a crisis.
    Currently the Nordic nations purchase satellite services from
    U.S. and European suppliers which do not provide satisfactory
    coverage above 71 degrees north.  Once a monitoring system is
    in place there will be a need for a response capability for
    search and rescue and other emergencies.  This capability
    should include icebreakers fit for Arctic use.  Although
    Baltic capabilities are strong, there are not currently
    enough resources to cover the vast sea areas under Norwegian,
    Danish (Greenland) and Icelandic control, particularly if
    shipping in the area increases.

    Addressing 21st Century Challenges
    ----------------------------------

    6.(U) Stoltenberg also proposed a number of ideas which would
    increase civil cooperation including a Nordic stabilization
    task force, a joint disaster response unit, a Nordic resource
    network to protect against cyber attacks, a war crimes
    investigation unit, cooperation between foreign services, and
    on Arctic issues.  The need for cooperation in war crimes
    prosecution, protection of infrastructure from cyber attack
    and on Arctic issues is clear and relatively
    non-controversial.  Cooperation between foreign services is
    much more difficult and will likely be limited to countries
    where none of the Nordics have representation now.

    7.(U) As envisioned, the Nordic stabilization task force
    would consist of military, humanitarian, state-building
    (police officers, judges, prison officers, election
    observers) and development assistance components.  This unit
    would be intended for use in UN-led operations and for NATO,
    EU, AU or OSCE missions with a UN mandate.  Stoltenberg
    proposes that the military forces allocated to this unit be
    drawn from those currently available for the EU Nordic Battle
    Group and the NATO Response Force.

    Dreams or Reality?
    -----------------

    8.(C) Comment: High defense costs, a genuine preference to
    work with other Nordics and clear regional needs are real
    factors which inspired the Stoltenberg study and which may
    result in some of his recommendations being followed.  The
    Nordic Ministers will meet next on June 9 in Iceland and will
    announce which recommendations will be pursued.  GON
    officials have uniformly stressed that where money can be
    saved and capabilities increased they are positive.  They
    were much less positive about the grander ambitions, such as
    the Nordic solidarity declaration and taking over
    responsibility for Iceland's air patrols.  Where this study
    could result in something of value is primarily in any
    increase in military, international operations and
    surveillance capacity.  Joint Nordic transport capabilities,
    medical teams, amphibious units, a stabilization task force
    and maritime awareness could be important contributions to
    UN, NATO or U.S. missions.

    ¶9. (C) The U.S. should encourage Nordic cooperation to the

    OSLO 00000146  003 OF 003

    extent that it increases the Nordics' willingness and ability
    to improve their internal and international capabilities to
    deal with global challenges.  It may also be of benefit to
    propose specific issues where we see Nordic cooperation
    contributing to NATO or U.S. priorities, such as maritime
    monitoring of the Barents, the development of stabilization
    teams, increases in military capacity, prosecution of war
    criminals, etc.
    WHITNEY

`