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### Viewing cable 10COPENHAGEN69, SBU) DENMARK: GOVERNMENT WEATHERS COP-15 AFTERMATH

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
10COPENHAGEN69 | 2010-02-05 07:07 | 2010-12-10 21:09 | UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY | Embassy Copenhagen

`

    VZCZCXRO0171
    RR RUEHIK
    DE RUEHCP #0069/01 0360703
    ZNR UUUUU ZZH
    R 050703Z FEB 10 ZDK
    FM AMEMBASSY COPENHAGEN
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 5478
    INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
    RUEHZN/ENVIRONMENT SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY COLLECTIVE

` `

    UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 COPENHAGEN 000069

    SENSITIVE
    SIPDIS

    DEPT FOR S/SECC, OES, EUR/NB

    E.O. 12958: N/A
    TAGS: KGHG PGOV PREL DA
    SUBJECT: (SBU) DENMARK: GOVERNMENT WEATHERS COP-15 AFTERMATH

    REF: A) 09 STATE 132367
    B) 09 COPENHAGEN 537

    COPENHAGEN 00000069 001.4 OF 003

    (U) SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED--NOT FOR INTERNET DISTRIBUTION.

    ¶1. (SBU) Summary: Unrealistic public expectations for the outcome
    of COP-15 and initial confusion over how to interpret the Copenhagen
    Accord led to intense media and opposition questioning of Denmark's
    role as host of the conference, in particular focused on PM Lars
    Loekke Rasmussen's performance as President of the COP. In
    response, the Government has defended the Copenhagen Accord as the
    best outcome possible at COP-15 and a positive step forward toward a
    legally binding agreement, and public interest appears to be
    shifting to other issues.

    ¶2. (SBU) While it remains publicly committed to pursue a legally
    binding accord under its COP presidency (which ends in December when
    Mexico assumes that role at the next COP in Cancun), we note signs
    that the Government seeks to play a less exposed role in
    international negotiations this year, preferring to work privately
    with the UN, Mexico, and the EU in search of a way forward. Denmark
    will continue to be a useful partner on climate, especially on
    Copenhagen Accord implementation, and we will continue to work
    closely with the Government and others in pursuit of shared
    interests. End Summary.

    ¶3. (SBU) The Danish Government (like the USG) admits that the
    Copenhagen Accord did not fulfil all its hopes for COP-15, but
    defends the Accord as an important outcome of the COP-15 climate
    conference. Critics, including the parliamentary opposition, have
    criticized the Accord for its non-binding nature and criticized PM
    Lars Loekke Rasmussen for a weak performance as President of the
    15th Conference of Parties (COP-15) climate conference held in
    Copenhagen December 7-18, 2009 (for a complete description of the
    COP-15 endgame and results, see Ref A).

    ¶4. (SBU) National media have fully aired opinions about the
    handling and results of this historic event for Denmark, to the
    point where public interest is beginning to reach saturation levels.
    Most awkward for the Government has been a focus on the PM's
    performance during COP-15. Danish conservative daily 'Berlingske
    Tidende' cites an unnamed Foreign Ministry source who reportedly
    witnessed an angry Prime Minister dressing down his leading climate
    advisor, Bo Lidegaard, in front of Danish delegates during COP15
    after feeling himself humiliated by foreign diplomats when he
    assumed the chair of the conference as it entered the crucial final
    days. Press have also highlighted procedural errors made by
    Rasmussen while in the chair, and the opposition has criticized the
    PM for "throwing in the towel" by giving up the chair in the waning
    hours of the conference after being thwarted by stubborn opposition
    from the ALBA countries to COP approval of the Copenhagen Accord.
    One anonymous analyst charged that the PM was unprepared to assume
    leadership over this international event, and letting him do so was
    equivalent to "throwing him to the sharks."

    Defending the Accord
    --------------------

    ¶5. (SBU) In several public appearances since COP-15, PM Rasmussen
    and new Climate Minister Lykke Friis have answered pointed questions
    from the press and the opposition on the significance of the
    Copenhagen Accord and the way ahead before Parliament. While freely
    admitting the Accord was not ideal, they have defended it as the
    best agreement possible at COP-15, and an important step forward
    towards a binding international agreement to address climate change.

    ¶6. (SBU) In an appearance before Parliament on January 26, the PM
    was faulted by the opposition for his inability to push through a
    legally binding agreement. Social Democrat climate spokesperson
    Mette Gjerskov criticized a "much too close" Danish alliance with
    the U.S. in the lead-up to the COP, saying "it was not enough just
    to get Obama to town and hope to then buy the votes of developing
    nations." Gjerskov said the PM had chaired COP-15 "as though it was
    a village hall discussion, not a gathering of world leaders," and
    urged the government to admit its mistakes and assume greater
    responsibility for the negotiating process in the lead-up to COP-16
    in Mexico. Continuing, she declared that "it is now over a month
    since delegates saw their COP15 chairman throw in the towel and walk
    out of the conference and nobody has seen or heard from him since.
    No meetings have been called, no strategy has been laid out.
    Where's the leadership? Our Prime Minister seems to be suffering
    from a climate coma."

    ¶7. (SBU) In response, PM Rasmussen defended the accord as the best
    possible outcome and a reflection of "the art of the possible" and
    "the reality of the situation." The PM said the Copenhagen Accord
    was an important step forward towards a binding agreement that
    remains the end goal of the Government. While acknowledging the

    COPENHAGEN 00000069 002.4 OF 003

    opposition had a right to try to label the outcome of the COP a
    'disaster,' the PM said that view displayed "a very modest
    understanding of what was--and is--at stake in the international
    climate debate." On forming alliances, the PM dismissed the
    criticism and indicated that he sees a much broader alliance behind
    the Copenhagen Accord. The accord, he said, was supported by
    countries responsible for more than 80 percent of global
    CO2-emissions.

    Friis to the Front--Still Ambitious
    -----------------------------------

    ¶8. (SBU) Climate and Energy Minister Lykke Friis, who assumed her
    ministerial duties when her predecessor, Connie Hedegaard, stepped
    down just before COP-15 (see Ref B), told Parliament on January 26
    that Denmark was committed to pursuing international collaboration
    on climate change along all tracks (i.e. UN, Kyoto, Copenhagen
    Accord).

    ¶9. (SBU) To do so, she said, Denmark will specifically:
    --Work with EU and other developed countries on delivering the
    finance outlined in the accord;
    --coordinate its efforts with the UN, Mexico, Germany (for the June
    UNFCCC meeting in Bonn);
    --keep working through diplomatic channels, via its embassy climate
    attaches in strategic countries (adding a new one in Mexico City and
    extending its current attache in South Africa, in anticipation of
    South Africa's hosting of COP-17 in 2011);
    --the Minister said she would attend the World Economic Forum in
    Doha January 26-27, and would subsequently visit Delhi (Feb 5-6,
    coupled with a visit to Beijing).
    (Note: Friis' staff told REO on January 26 that she is also
    considering whether and when to continue her predecessor's
    "Greenland Dialogue" process.)

    But Not Too Ambitious
    ---------------------

    ¶10. (SBU) PM Rasmussen has flatly rejected calls from the
    opposition and - intriguingly - from some within the governing
    coalition (specifically from the Conservative Party of former
    Climate Minister and EC Commissioner-designate Connie Hedegaard),
    for more ambitious international leadership by Denmark on climate
    issues in the wake of COP-15. On January 13 during another
    appearance before Parliament, the PM was denounced by Social Liberal
    Party leader Margrethe Vestager for "trying to lead from the back
    seat." Instead, she said, "Denmark could do something on its own.
    We should say: first we will go for 30 percent, and we are willing
    to go even further."

    ¶11. (SBU) Rasmussen responded that "we could say 100 percent. We
    could declare that we will end the consumption of fossil fuels by
    the end of the year, then we would have made a marginal, marginal
    contribution to the fight against global warming. Because even if
    we did, even if the whole EU did, even if all developed nations of
    the world did it, it would still not be enough to reach the 2
    degrees target. We would then probably have set ourselves some
    challenges that are...very challenging financially. It's about
    balance. And I accept that there is a positive competitive effect
    of being a frontrunner, but there is also a competitive disadvantage
    by being too much of a front-runner, and therefore the right place
    for this discussion right here and now is (within) the EU."

    Comment
    -------

    ¶12. (SBU) COP-15 was certainly a disappointment to the Danish
    Government in that it did not provide the public relations boost it
    had hoped for. Yet neither was it a bust--the opposition has not
    been noticeably boosted, and recriminations over COP-15 seem to be
    losing public interest, especially as implementation of the
    Copenhagen Accord gathers steam. Instead, Danes seem eager to leave
    the mixed results of COP-15 behind, choosing to move on to focus
    political debate on other issues. Polls show a slight opposition
    lead over the government, but that edge was not significantly
    affected by COP-15. That said, emerging disagreements within the
    governing coalition and with the opposition over international
    climate negotiations have the potential to play out further, with
    electoral implications.

    ¶13. (SBU) While the outcome of COP-15 is not directly destabilizing
    the Rasmussen Government in the short term, the PM appears chastened
    by his experience and unlikely to risk further high-stakes
    appearances on the international stage. We expect Minister Friis to
    now assume a more visible role enunciating Danish climate policy, as
    Denmark transitions to a more modest role in international
    negotiations. As COP-15 president for the remainder of 2010,
    however, Denmark will remain an important player in international
    climate negotiations, and we will continue to work together with the

    COPENHAGEN 00000069 003.4 OF 003

    Government on shared interests in encouraging full implementation of
    the Copenhagen Accord and building support for an effective
    international agreement. In coordination with the Department, we
    will engage with Minister Friis to exchange views on the best way
    forward.

    FULTON

`