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### Viewing cable 04MADRID2164, AMBASSADOR'S VISIT TO SEVILLE, SOCIALIST HEARTLAND

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
04MADRID2164 | 2004-06-09 09:09 | 2010-12-07 12:12 | UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY | Embassy Madrid

`

    This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

` `

    UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 MADRID 002164

    SIPDIS

    SENSITIVE

    E.O. 12958: N/A
    TAGS: PGOV PTER PREL ECON SP MO
    SUBJECT: AMBASSADOR'S VISIT TO SEVILLE, SOCIALIST HEARTLAND

    Sensitive But Unclassified. Please Protect Accordingly.

    Summary

    ¶1. (SBU) During the Ambassador's June 3 visit to Seville,
    Andalusia Region President Manuel Chaves told him that
    Spanish President Zapatero seeks "normal, strong" relations
    with the US despite Zapatero's rapid withdrawal of Spanish
    troops from Iraq. Chaves, a long-time Socialist party
    "boss," stressed that the Popular Party had lost the March 14
    general election because of Aznar's commitment of troops to
    Iraq, not because of the March 11 Madrid terrorist attacks.
    Looking ahead to the June 13 EU Parliament elections, Chaves
    said that while the Socialists are favored to win, the public
    is apathetic. A low turnout would boost the Popular Party's
    chances. The Ambassador also met in Seville with Jose
    Antonio Viera, central government delegate to Andalusia.
    Viera expressed concerns that Islamist terrorists might hide
    among the 2.7 million Moroccans expected to travel through
    Andalusia in July and August. Andalusian business leaders
    expressed high regard for Second VP and Economy Minister
    Solbes, but were worried that the Zapatero government, as a
    whole, might be bad for business. End Summary.

    Reaching out to the Regions

    ¶2. (SBU) The Ambassador made a one-day visit June 3 to
    Seville, the capital of Andalusia, as part of his program of
    regular travel to Spain's 17 regions. Andalusia has long
    been a Socialist stronghold, and Socialist former President
    Felipe Gonzalez hails from there. Andalusia is Spain's
    largest region, both geographically and in population, with
    over 7.4 million inhabitants. It is also one of Spain's
    poorest regions. Tens of thousands of rural residents live
    on welfare payments (known as PER) targeted at seasonal
    agricultural workers. The Socialist government distributes
    the benefits at the local level and this patronage provides
    them with a solid bloc of voters.

    Chaves Adamant on Iraq

    ¶3. (SBU) The Ambassador began his visit to Seville with a
    call on Socialist "Baron," Manuel Chaves. Chaves, President
    of Andalusia since 1990, won re-election to a fourth term on
    March 14 regaining an absolute majority for the Socialists in
    the regional parliament. The Ambassador congratulated
    Chaves on his victory. Chaves responded with a commentary
    on Iraq. He said the withdrawal of Spanish troops from Iraq
    was a political necessity for Zapatero. Aznar's commitment
    of the troops went against the overwhelming sentiment of
    Spanish society. The US resort to force in Iraq was a
    mistake. Zapatero had to withdraw the troops from "Aznar's
    war" since they should never have been there in the first
    place, Chaves said.

    ¶4. (SBU) Chaves stressed to the Ambassador that Zapatero's
    March 14 election victory was due not to the March 11 Madrid
    terrorist train attacks, but to Aznar's involvement in Iraq.
    If Aznar had not committed Spanish troops to Iraq, the PP
    would likely have won nationally on March 14. The terrorist
    attacks drew attention to the Iraq commitment, but the
    Spanish public did not vote for Zapatero on the basis of the
    terrorist attacks, Chaves maintained. What brought the PP
    down was Aznar's decision to implicate Spain in the Iraq war,
    he reiterated.

    ¶5. (SBU) Underlining that he holds the position of national
    President of the Socialist Party (PSOE), Chaves affirmed that
    the Zapatero government wants "normal, strong" relations with
    the US. He noted that despite the differences on Iraq,
    Spain remains a US ally. The transatlantic link is vital;
    indeed it is the linchpin of the world order, Chaves stated.
    He added that both Zapatero and FM Moratinos are committed
    to forging positive relations with the US and were pleased by
    their meeting with Secretary Powell in Madrid in March.

    Rota and Moron

    ¶6. (SBU) The Ambassador expressed thanks for the assistance
    the USG receives from the Andalusian government for the bases
    in Rota and Moron. Chaves raised the issue of the taxation
    of Spanish worker salaries, which the GOS instituted several
    years ago and has resulted in a substantial drop in workers'
    take home pay. Chaves expressed the hope that the US
    military and the GOS taxation authorities could work out "a
    reasonable solution that is fair to the workers."

    Investor Concerns

    ¶7. (SBU) The Ambassador told Chaves he wanted to pass along
    that some business leaders he had spoken with are concerned
    about the economic outlook under the Zapatero government.
    The Ambassador noted that US companies had invested over $50
    billion in Spain in the previous five years and that investor
    confidence was key to keeping that trend going. Chaves said
    he would pass those concerns on to VP/Economy Minister Solbes
    when they meet the next week. Chaves stressed that the
    Zapatero government would not change the fundamental
    direction of Spain's recent economic policy and that there
    was no reason for businessmen to be concerned. The
    appointment of Solbes as Economy Minister was a deliberate
    signal of the commitment of the Zapatero government to a
    responsible economic policy, Chaves said.

    June 13 EU Parliament Election: Turnout Key

    ¶8. (SBU) Regarding the outlook for the June 13 EU
    parliamentary election, Chaves said he was uncertain. Voter
    interest in the EU election is low. Turnout is likely to be
    especially low since the EU vote comes only three months
    after the intense national elections of March 14. In
    addition, previous EU parliamentary elections had been held
    in conjunction with other Spanish elections, while this one
    is stand-alone. Popular Party voters may be more motivated
    than PSOE voters. The PP certainly hopes this is the case,
    and is working hard to turn its voters out. On the positive
    side for PSOE, Chaves said, Zapatero is enjoying a honeymoon.
    The decision to pull the troops from Iraq was highly
    popular.

    2.7 Million Moroccans Crossing the Strait This Summer

    ¶9. (SBU) The Ambassador also met with the central
    government's delegate to the Andalusia, Jose Antonio Viera.
    (One of the delegate's primary functions is to coordinate the
    activities of the national police and Guardia Civil in the
    region.) Viera, who until March was Employment and
    Technology Counselor in Chaves' pre-March 14 government,
    agreed that the June 13 EU parliament election would have
    much lower turnout than the March 14 general election. He
    added that this was unfortunate, since EU issues directly
    affect Andalusia. Labor costs in Andalusia have been
    relatively low by EU standards. However, the expansion of
    the EU largely eliminates the cost advantage of Andalusian
    labor and may encourage some investors to locate in Eastern
    Europe instead. As a result, Andalusian businessmen must
    now focus on Andalusia becoming a higher value investment
    location, not just a low labor cost location.

    ¶10. (SBU) Viera also discussed Morocco. He noted that
    during July and August about 2.7 million Moroccans would
    drive through Spain on their way across the Strait of
    Gibraltar to spend the summer vacation with their families.
    Many come from France, Belgium or elsewhere in the EU.
    Viera expressed concerns about the ability of terrorists to
    mix among the travelers. He said police would step up
    their presence to monitor the Moroccan travelers. He
    commented that Spain, as Europe's frontier state with
    Morocco, was bearing the brunt of such travel. Viera said
    the EU must do more to reach out to the Maghreb to fight
    organized crime, terrorism, drug running and immigrant
    smuggling. Broadening the system for legal guest workers
    is another goal.

    ¶11. (SBU) Regarding the flow of illegal immigrants across
    the Strait of Gibraltar, Viera said that Spain's electronic
    monitoring system was highly effective and enabled Spanish
    police to see the entire coast. Spain will be adding more
    air patrols to the mix in the next few months to improve
    efficiency. This is important to cut down on the many
    immigrant deaths that occur in the crossing of the Strait, he
    said.

    Businessmen: Respect for Solbes, But Still Concern

    ¶12. (SBU) The Ambassador also addressed the Andalusian
    Business Confederation. In the lunch that followed, the
    Andalusian business leaders conveyed a cautious attitude
    toward the Zapatero government's economic policy and the
    potential for a loss of budget discipline. They also
    expressed worries that, in the wake of the Spanish pullout
    from Iraq, Spanish products might face a backlash by US
    consumers. Nonetheless, they had high regard for Economy
    Minister Solbes. Some credited Solbes as being the one who
    started Spain on the path to economic growth when he was in
    Felipe Gonzalez's last cabinet in the mid 1990's. The
    question, they said, is not Solbes, but whether Solbes can
    prevail over others in the Socialist government who do not
    share his philosophy.
    ¶13. (U) In addition to meetings, the Ambassador was
    interviewed by various regional media. Press coverage was
    favorable.
    ARGYROS

`