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### Viewing cable 01STATE176819, AFGHANISTAN'S POLITICAL FUTURE (CORRECTED COPY)

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
01STATE176819 | 2001-10-11 01:01 | 2011-01-20 22:10 | CONFIDENTIAL | Secretary of State

`

    P 110117Z OCT 01
    FM SECSTATE WASHDC
    TO AMEMBASSY PARIS PRIORITY
    AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI PRIORITY
    AMEMBASSY MOSCOW PRIORITY
    AMEMBASSY TASHKENT PRIORITY
    AMEMBASSY ANKARA PRIORITY
    AMEMBASSY BERLIN PRIORITY
    AMEMBASSY LONDON PRIORITY
    AMEMBASSY ISLAMABAD PRIORITY
    AMEMBASSY CANBERRA PRIORITY
    AMEMBASSY TOKYO PRIORITY
    AMEMBASSY ROME PRIORITY
    AMEMBASSY BEIJING PRIORITY
    AMEMBASSY DOHA PRIORITY
    AMEMBASSY RIYADH PRIORITY
    AMEMBASSY ASHGABAT PRIORITY
    AMEMBASSY DUSHANBE PRIORITY
    AMEMBASSY ALMATY PRIORITY
    AMEMBASSY BISHKEK PRIORITY
    INFO USMISSION USNATO PRIORITY
    USMISSION USUN NEW YORK PRIORITY
    AMCONSUL JEDDAH PRIORITY

` `

    C O N F I D E N T I A L STATE 176819

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/10/11
    TAGS: PREL AF PK
    SUBJECT: AFGHANISTAN'S POLITICAL FUTURE (CORRECTED COPY)

    REF: (A)STATE 175414 (NOTAL), (B)ISLAMABAD 5601

    (U) CLASSIFIED BY: CHRISTINA B. ROCCA, ASSISTANT SECRETARY
    FOR SOUTH ASIAN AFFAIRS; REASON: 1.5 (B AND D).

    (U) THIS IS A CORRECTED COPY OF CABLE PREVIOUSLY SENT WITH
    SAME SUBJECT. (MRN NOT AVAILABLE)

    ¶1. (C) ACTION ADDRESSEES SHOULD DRAW FROM POINTS BELOW IN
    DISCUSSIONS WITH HOST GOVERNMENTS REGARDING U.S. VIEWS ON
    THE POLITICAL FUTURE OF AFGHANISTAN. NOTING SPECIFICALLY
    THAT THESE ARE PRELIMINARY THOUGHTS, ACTION ADDRESSEES
    SHOULD REQUEST HOST COUNTRY INPUT. EMBASSY ISLAMABAD HAS
    MADE A SIMILAR APPROACH (REF A) TO THE GOP BUT MAY USE
    THESE EXPANDED POINTS TO AMPLIFY ITS DISCUSSION.

    ¶2. (C) BACKGROUND:

    -- AFGHANISTAN'S STABILITY IS PREDICATED UPON HAVING A
    GOVERNMENT WITHOUT TERRORIST TIES, FRIENDLY TO ITS
    NEIGHBORS, ABLE TO GOVERN, AND ENGAGED IN OVERALL REGIONAL
    COOPERATION AND ECONOMIC REHABILITATION. A FUTURE
    GOVERNMENT WILL LIKELY EMERGE FROM THE SUPREME COUNCIL
    UNDER FORMER KING ZAHIR SHAH'S SYMBOLIC LEADERSHIP WITH
    NORTHERN ALLIANCE, MAJOR ETHNIC, PARTICULARLY PASHTUN, AND
    SECTARIAN GROUPS. AFGHANISTAN WILL NEED INTERNATIONAL
    ASSISTANCE WITH A SECURITY ARRANGEMENT THAT WOULD PROVIDE
    STABILITY FOR POLITICAL, ECONOMIC, AND SOCIAL RECOVERY,
    INCLUDING HOLDING KABUL AND OTHER URBAN AREAS, AND PROTECT
    THE GOVERNMENT AND INTERNATIONAL ASSISTANCE WORKERS FROM
    THOSE THAT SEEK TO CONTINUE THE CONFLICT.

    -- AFGHANS WILL NEED HELP TO FORM A GOVERNMENT THAT IN
    COOPERATION WITH THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY CAN CLOSE
    DOWN TERRORISTS' OPERATIONS, ADHERES TO INTERNATIONAL
    NORMS AND PRACTICES, PARTICULARLY HUMAN RIGHTS AND ISSUES
    CONCERNING WOMEN, AND FACILITATES SAFE DELIVERY OF
    HUMANITARIAN AND ECONOMIC ASSISTANCE. CONSULTATIONS WITH
    COALITION PARTNERS, PARTICULARLY ISLAMIC COUNTRIES AND
    REGIONAL STATES, WILL BE IMPORTANT IN DETERMINING AND
    IMPLEMENTING A SECURITY ARRANGEMENT THAT WOULD BE WELCOMED
    BY THE SUPREME COUNCIL AND A FUTURE AFGHAN GOVERNMENT.

    ¶3. (C) TALKING POINTS:

    -- WITH EVENTS MOVING RAPIDLY, WE BELIEVE IT IMPERATIVE TO
    DISCUSS THE POLITICAL FUTURE OF AFGHANISTAN. WE
    ANTICIPATE MANY FUTURE, DETAILED EXCHANGES
    OF VIEWS ON THIS IMPORTANT TOPIC AS EVENTS PROCEED.

    -- WE WOULD LIKE TO MAKE IT VERY CLEAR THAT WE DO NOT
    INTEND TO, NOR DO WE BELIEVE WE COULD, DETERMINE THIS
    FUTURE.

    -- AS YOU KNOW WE ARE PROVIDING HUMANITARIAN AID TO COMBAT
    THE PRESENT CRISIS. WE ARE ALSO LOOKING AT HOW THE
    INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY COULD WORK TO REBUILD THE ECONOMY
    IN A FUTURE AFGHANISTAN.

    -- USG WELCOMES APPOINTMENT OF AMBASSADOR LAKHDAR BRAHIMI
    AS SECRETARY GENERAL'S SPECIAL ENVOY FOR AFGHANISTAN AND
    LOOKS FORWARD TO WORKING WITH HIM. WE EXPECT TO ENGAGE IN
    DISCUSSIONS WITH HIM IN THE NEAR FUTURE REGARDING HIS
    ROLE. WE ENCOURAGE OTHERS TO BE IN CONTACT WITH HIM AS
    WELL.

    -- WE BELIEVE YOUR GOVERNMENT HAS A KEY ROLE TO PLAY IN
    SOLVING THE PROBLEMS OF AFGHANISTAN. WE WELCOME INCREASED
    DIALOGUE WITH THE FORMER KING AND BROADENED CONTACTS WITH
    AFGHANS TO ENCOURAGE ANTI-TALIBAN UNITY.

    -- WE HAVE ALSO BEEN IN CONTACT WITH THE FORMER KING AT A
    HIGH LEVEL AND EXPECT TO BE ENGAGING IN SIMILAR
    DISCUSSIONS WITH BOTH THE NORTHERN ALLIANCE AND OTHER
    INDEPENDENT AFGHANS, PARTICULARLY PASHTUNS, INSIDE AND
    OUTSIDE AFGHANISTAN. WE WELCOME THE FORMATION OF A
    SUPREME COUNCIL FOR NATIONAL UNITY OF AFGHANISTAN
    COMBINING THE ROME GROUP WITH THE NORTHERN ALLIANCE AND
    OTHER AFGHAN GROUPS.

    -- WE ARE LOOKING AT PROVIDING FINANCIAL ASSISTANCE TO THE
    ROME GROUP TO DEFRAY IMMEDIATE ADMINISTRATIVE EXPENSES.

    -- ULTIMATELY, IT IS UP TO THE PEOPLE OF AFGHANISTAN TO
    DETERMINE THEIR OWN FUTURE. THAT SAID, WE BELIEVE THAT
    THERE ARE CERTAIN GENERALLY ACCEPTED INTERNATIONAL
    PRINCIPLES WHICH ANY GOVERNMENT WILL NEED TO ADHERE TO. IT
    WILL NEED TO BE BROAD-BASED, MULTI-ETHNIC, AND GENERALLY
    REPRESENTATIVE, RESPECT HUMAN RIGHTS, END ALL SUPPORT FOR
    TERRORISM, AND FOLLOW ACCEPTED STANDARDS OF INTERNATIONAL
    BEHAVIOR.

    -- BY DEFINITION, ANY TRANSITION OR FUTURE GOVERNMENT
    COULD NOT BE COMPOSED OF JUST ONE AFGHAN FACTION. TO BE
    SPECIFIC, WE DO NOT BELIEVE THE NORTHERN ALLIANCE
    (COMPOSED LARGELY OF TAJIKS AND UZBEKS) ALONE COULD OR
    SHOULD RULE AFGHANISTAN GIVEN ITS LIMITED ETHNIC
    COMPOSITION. THE NA WILL, OF COURSE, HAVE A ROLE IN ANY
    FUTURE GOVERNMENT, AS SHOULD OTHER SIGNIFICANT ELEMENTS OF
    AFGHAN SOCIETY.

    -- WE ALSO UNDERSTAND THAT AFGHANISTAN'S NEIGHBORS HAVE
    LEGITIMATE NATIONAL INTERESTS RELATING TO AFGHANISTAN. WE
    BELIEVE THAT ANY FUTURE GOVERNMENT SHOULD TAKE THOSE

    INTERESTS INTO ACCOUNT. PAKISTAN DOES NOT WANT TO BE FACED
    WITH A HOSTILE AFGHANISTAN WITH TERRITORIAL CLAIMS. IRAN
    WANTS THE SHI'A PROTECTED AND NO DRUGS. PAKISTAN AND IRAN
    WANT REFUGEES TO RETURN HOME. UZBEKISTAN, TURKMENISTAN,
    AND TAJIKISTAN WANT PEACEFUL BORDERS.

    -- WE WOULD NOTE, HOWEVER, THAT OTHER NEIGHBORING
    COUNTRIES ALSO HAVE LEGITIMATE INTERESTS IN THE FUTURE
    POLITICAL SETUP IN AFGHANISTAN. WE DO NOT SEE ANY
    IRRECONCILABLE CONFLICT AMONG THESE INTERESTS AS LONG AS
    AFGHANS AND OUTSIDE INTERESTS ARE FLEXIBLE.

    -- WE HAVE MADE THESE POINTS TO OUR AFGHAN CONTACTS.

    -- YOUR COOPERATION IS VITAL AND WELCOMED ON ALL
    FRONTS. WE EXPECT TO BE IN FREQUENT CONTACT WITH YOU ON
    THIS TOPIC AND WELCOME YOUR VIEWS.

    ¶4. (C) BELOW ADDRESSEES SHOULD ADD THE FOLLOWING POINTS:

    FOR SIX PLUS TWO MEMBERS:

    -- YOUR COUNTRY, ALONG WITH AFGHANISTAN'S OTHER NEIGHBORS,
    HAS LEGITIMATE NATIONAL INTERESTS RELATING TO AFGHANISTAN
    THAT NEED TO BE TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT. YOUR COOPERATION IS
    VITAL TO THE EMERGENCE OF A FUTURE PEACEFUL, STABLE
    AFGHANISTAN.

    -- WE ARE CONSIDERING WHEN AND AT WHAT LEVEL THE SIX PLUS
    TWO MIGHT MEET TO DISCUSS THESE ISSUES.

    FOR EMBASSY NEW DELHI:

    -- INDIA HAS A LONG HISTORY WITH AFGHANISTAN AS WELL AS
    KEY INTERESTS THAT NEED TO BE TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT. INDIA,
    LIKE PAKISTAN, SHOULD NOT BE FACED WITH A HOSTILE
    AFGHANISTAN.

    -- INDIA'S COOPERATION IS VITAL AND WELCOMED. WE
    ANTICIPATE A DIALOGUE WITH INDIA ON REGIONAL IMPLICATIONS
    OF THIS TOPIC AS THE SITUATION DEVELOPS.

    FOR EMBASSY TOKYO:

    -- VERY MUCH APPRECIATE YOUR STRONG INTEREST IN THE
    ECONOMIC, POLITICAL, AND SOCIAL FUTURE OF AFGHANISTAN.

    -- WE VALUE OUR BILATERAL EXCHANGES ON THIS ISSUE, BOTH IN
    TOKYO AND IN WASHINGTON, AS WELL AS ON THE MARGINS OF
    RECENT MEETINGS IN BERLIN AND GENEVA.

    -- WE ALSO THINK YOUR SUPPORT FOR PAKISTAN AS IT GRAPPLES
    WITH ITS ECONOMIC NEEDS IS VERY HELPFUL, ESPECIALLY AS
    PRESIDENT MUSHARRAF HAS BEEN TAKING RISKS DOMESTICALLY BY
    JOINING OUR INTERNATIONAL COALITION AGAINST TERRORISM.

    -- WE VIEW YOU AS AN INTEGRAL PARTNER AS WE FOCUS ON AN
    ASSISTANCE AND POLITICAL/ECONOMIC RECOVERY PLAN FOR A
    FUTURE AFGHANISTAN.

    FOR EMBASSY PARIS:

    -- WE WERE DELIGHTED TO SEE THAT, IN YOUR EXCELLENT PLAN
    FOR ASSISTING AFGHANISTAN, YOU ARE CONCENTRATING ON THE
    SAME AREAS OUR OWN THINKING ENCOMPASSES. FRENCH
    LEADERSHIP ON THHIS ISSUE WILL ASSURE THAT THE
    INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY ADDRESSES THESE URGENT TASKS
    EFFICIENTLY AND WELL. WE SHOULD STAY IN CLOSE TOUCH ON
    THE WAY FORWARD.

    -- WE SHARE YOUR PARTICULAR CONCERNS REGARDING ERADICATION
    OF OPIUM POPPY CULTIVATION.

    --WE BELIEVE FRANCE AND OTHER MEMBERS OF THE EU HAVE AN
    IMPORTANT ROLE TO PLAY IN PROVIDING A BETTER FUTURE FOR
    THE AFGHAN PEOPLE AND WELCOME THE EU'S EXPERTISE IN
    DEVISING A RECONSTRUCTION PROGRAMME.

    ¶5. (U) DUSHANBE MINIMIZE CONSIDERED.

    POWELL

`