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### Viewing cable 08WARSAW1409, POLAND: A NATURAL U.S. ALLY ON EASTERN POLICY

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
08WARSAW1409 | 2008-12-12 06:06 | 2010-12-06 21:09 | SECRET | Embassy Warsaw

`

    VZCZCXRO4450
    OO RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHNP RUEHROV
    DE RUEHWR #1409/01 3470645
    ZNY SSSSS ZZH
    O 120645Z DEC 08
    FM AMEMBASSY WARSAW
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 7485
    INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE

` `

    S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 WARSAW 001409

    SIPDIS

    EUR/CE FOR MORRIS, PIERANGELO

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/06/2018
    TAGS: PREL PHUM PGOV BO GG UP RS PL
    SUBJECT: POLAND: A NATURAL U.S. ALLY ON EASTERN POLICY

    REF: A. STATE 111058
    ¶B. WARSAW 1010
    ¶C. STOCKHOLM 792

    Classified By: DCM Quanrud for reasons 1.4 (B) AND (D)

    ¶1. (S) SUMMARY: Like us, Poland seeks to draw key countries
    on the eastern boundary of Europe, like Ukraine and Georgia,
    towards Western institutions. An increasingly active regional
    player, Poland has evolved since 1989 from aid-recipient to
    donor, helping us to spur reforms in the region. Warsaw has
    lead EU engagement with its eastern neighbors through the
    joint Polish-Swedish Eastern Partnership proposal, which was
    accelerated in the shadow of the Georgia crisis and is now
    embedded in European Commission strategy. Yet growing
    self-confidence and an historical distrust of Russia can
    sometimes lead Poland to get too far out in front -- like
    when the Poles transferred sensitive armaments to Georgia and
    took a gamble by pushing through the sudden removal of most
    EU sanctions against Belarus. Despite the occasional
    overstepping, Poland's Eastern Policy is an excellent
    complement to our own, and projects like the Eastern
    Partnership merit our support. END SUMMARY.

    STRATEGY BEHIND EASTERN PARTNERSHIP
    -----------------------------------

    ¶2. (C) The Eastern Partnership -- a proposal championed by
    Poland and Sweden to deepen EU relations with Ukraine,
    Georgia, Moldova, Belarus, Armenia, and Azerbaijan --
    embraces the central goals of Poland's increasingly active
    regional policy:

    -- Counter Russia's influence in Eastern Europe (although
    Russia is officially welcome to take part in the Partnership);
    -- Energize EU engagement with eastern neighbors in the
    face of enlargement fatigue; and
    -- Entice former Soviet states to embrace Western
    democratic and free-market principles by offering tangible
    benefits -- particularly a free trade area and eventual
    visa-free travel.

    ¶3. (C) The Eastern Partnership and other Polish policies in
    the region aim to counter a resurgent Russia. Foreign
    Minister Sikorski told U.S. officials the GoP used to think
    Russia would be a danger in 10-15 years, but after the
    Georgia crisis, it could be as little as 10-15 months.
    Polish analysts tell us having a pro-Western buffer zone in
    Ukraine and Belarus would keep Poland off the front line with
    an increasingly assertive Russia. By offering former Soviet
    republics the prospect of free trade and visa-free travel to
    the EU, the Eastern Partnership can spur the reforms needed
    for eventual EU membership and stem growing Russian
    influence. MFA officials note that the holder of a Russian
    passport in Georgia currently faces fewer travel restrictions
    in Europe than a holder of a Georgian passport. On the
    economic front, Polish officials believe a larger western
    business presence in countries like Belarus and Ukraine will
    provide an alternative to Russian state-controlled companies,
    and EU good governance programs can fight the corruption that
    facilitates Russian political and economic influence.

    ¶4. (C) Convinced that the EU has greater leverage with Moscow
    than do individual Member States, the Tusk Government has
    shed the confrontational rhetoric of its predecessor and
    sought to build coalitions among EU members. Foreign
    Minister Sikorski developed the Eastern Partnership with
    Swedish FM Bildt, and Polish and Swedish embassies in EU
    capitals jointly lobbied other Member States to support the
    package. EU colleagues in Warsaw praise the undertaking as a
    real coming of age for Poland in the EU. Tusk has also
    striven to improve relations with Germany, which the Polish
    MFA hopes will bring more financial backing for the Eastern
    Partnership. The Prime Minister struck a deal with Paris in
    March 2008 to support French proposals on the EU's southern
    dimension initiative in exchange for France's support for the
    Partnership.

    ¶5. (C) Poland itself has evolved from aid recipient to
    assistance provider, bilaterally allocating PLN 26 million
    (USD 8.7 million) to Belarus and PLN 16 million (USD 5.3
    million) to Ukraine in 2008. The aid will enhance
    independent broadcasting media, border cooperation, public
    administration, and people-to-people contacts. Poland has
    also committed 6 million euro (USD 7.8 million) to Georgia
    for the period 2008-2010. Robert Tyszkiewicz, the Deputy
    Chair of the Sejm's Foreign Relations Committee, described
    Poland's assistance as "modest, but useful and credible,
    because we struggled with many of the same post-Communist
    challenges." MFA officials have called for a high-level
    strategic dialogue between Washington and Brussels -- with

    WARSAW 00001409 002 OF 003

    Polish participation -- on targeting assistance to eastern
    neighbors.

    STRENGTHENING THE NATIONAL SECURITY UMBRELLA
    --------------------------------------------

    ¶6. (S) To complement increased EU engagement, Warsaw seeks to
    bolster the U.S. and NATO security stance in Eastern Europe.
    Polish officials perceive Russia's invasion of Georgia in
    August as a vindication of their warnings about Moscow,s
    aggressive behavior. According to the "Sikorski Doctrine,"
    any further attempt by Russia to redraw borders by force or
    subversion should be regarded by Europe as a threat to its
    security, entailing a proportional response by the entire
    Euro-Atlantic community. Poland has pushed hard for Ukraine
    and Georgia's NATO accession, and called on NATO to make sure
    it can make good on Article V guarantees. Sikorski has
    complained that NATO has evolved into a political club with
    no teeth and warned that Poland would not be able to ignore a
    repetition of the Georgia scenario in Ukraine. He has also
    told U.S. officials that, in light of Russian excesses in
    Georgia, Poland's risky policy of arming the Georgians with
    MANPADS proved the right thing to do despite USG objections
    (Ref B).

    ¶7. (C) Poland's perennial concerns about the adequacy of its
    Allies' security guarantees played a key role in the decision
    to sign the Ballistic Missile Defense Agreement (BMDA) with
    the U.S. The GoP wants US/NATO boots (and infrastructure) on
    the ground so that the U.S. will feel obliged to defend
    Poland's territorial sovereignty in the event of a conflict.
    Immediately after Russia's invasion of Georgia, Tusk
    emphasized Poland's sense of vulnerability when he asked
    high-level U.S. officials, "Now do you see why we wanted the
    Patriot missiles and further security guarantees (as
    requested during the Missile Defense talks)?"

    RUSH TO REDUCE MINSK SANCTIONS
    ------------------------------

    ¶8. (C) The Polish government -- lead by Sikorski -- pushed
    through the temporary repeal of almost all EU visa sanctions
    against Belarusian President Lukashenka's regime, despite USG
    calls for a more gradual easing of sanctions. Sikorski
    publicly suggested the U.S. was engaging in double standards
    because of our close relations with a "dictatorship in Saudi
    Arabia, but not in Belarus." Both Sikorski and Tusk
    acknowledge that the GoP risks being perceived as embracing a
    dictator; but they argue that engaging Belarus is
    particularly important after the Russian invasion of Georgia.
    The Prime Minister and Foreign Minister told U.S. officials
    in August that Poland is responding to Belarus' signals of
    interest in dialogue, and, like the U.S., to the release of
    political prisoners in Belarus.

    ¶9. (C) Tusk and Sikorski see engagement with Belarusian
    authorities as the lesser of two evils. In the Poles' view,
    an isolated Belarus could become completely ensnared by
    Russia, with or without Lukashenka in power. Russian
    domination would jeopardize democratic transformation and --
    more importantly, in Warsaw's view -- would dash hopes that
    Belarus could become a buffer state between Poland and
    Russia. The GoP is betting that Lukashenka enjoys enough
    power to resist the elimination of independent Belarusian
    institutions and maintain his freedom of maneuver. MFA
    officials tell us that in response to the lifting of EU visa
    sanctions, Belarus has signaled Brussels that Minsk would
    ease some media restrictions.

    CHALLENGES AHEAD
    ----------------

    ¶10. (C) MFA officials understand Poland's eastern policies
    could elicit a sharp Russian reaction, but they see a greater
    danger in doing nothing since they believe a resurgent,
    aggressive Russia is here to stay. Poland has sought to
    mitigate the risk of a backlash by maintaining a cordial
    dialogue with Moscow and pursuing a united US-EU front
    vis-a-vis Russia on sensitive energy and security issues.
    President Lech Kaczynski, the Prime Minister's top political
    rival, takes a more confrontational approach to Russia; he
    often visits Georgia and makes pronouncements there without
    coordinating with the government. To a certain extent,
    Kaczynski's lurching east takes pressure off the Tusk
    Government to be tough in public with Russia, but the two
    leaders' divergent approaches could also hamper their ability
    to achieve the shared goal of extending European and
    trans-Atlantic institutions eastward.

    ¶11. (C) The Eastern Partnership competes for EU financing
    with other projects, particularly the Union's Southern

    WARSAW 00001409 003 OF 003

    Initiative with Mediterranean countries. The European
    Commission's Eastern Partnership proposal included a request
    for 350 million euro in fresh funds for 2010-13, which was
    much less than the 600 million euro sum originally proposed
    by Poland and Sweden. In contrast to the Southern
    Initiative, the Partnership lacks a high-level special
    coordinator who can advocate on the program's behalf within
    the EU bureaucracy. Polish MFA officials also point out that
    the success of the program depends on identifying and
    implementing credible projects.

    HELPING THE EASTERN PARTNERSHIP SUCCEED
    ---------------------------------------

    ¶12. (C) Poland can be a reliable ally as we looks for ways to
    enhance western influence beyond NATO's eastern borders.
    Russian President Medvedev's threat to deploy Iskander
    missiles in Kaliningrad in response to the Missile Defense
    program has redoubled Polish determination to work with the
    U.S. and the EU to shore up its eastern neighbors as a
    bulwark against Russian encroachment. It is also very much
    in our interest to work closely with Warsaw, Brussels, and
    the incoming Czech and Swedish EU presidencies to ensure the
    Partnership's success in enhancing EU ties with its eastern
    neighborhood.
    ASHE

`