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### Viewing cable 09BAKU695, IRAN POLITICS: TEHRAN UNIVERSITYSCHOLAR STRESSES

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
09BAKU695 | 2009-09-02 11:11 | 2010-12-29 21:09 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy Baku

`

    VZCZCXRO6814
    RR RUEHBC RUEHDE RUEHDIR RUEHKUK RUEHTRO
    DE RUEHKB #0695/01 2451109
    ZNY CCCCC ZZH
    R 021109Z SEP 09
    FM AMEMBASSY BAKU
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 1674
    INFO RUCNIRA/IRAN COLLECTIVE
    RUEHIT/AMCONSUL ISTANBUL 0145
    RHMFISS/CDR USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL
    RHMFISS/CDR USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE
    RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
    RUEKDIA/DIA WASHDC
    RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHDC
    RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
    RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC

` `

    C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BAKU 000695

    SIPDIS

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/28/2019
    TAGS: PGOV SNAR KISL AJ IR
    SUBJECT: IRAN POLITICS: TEHRAN UNIVERSITYSCHOLAR STRESSES
    POLITICAL ROLE OF MESBAH-YAZDI, SAYS IRAN UNDERGOING
    "HISTORIC TRANSFORMATION"

    Classified By: Political/Economic Counselor Rob Garverick, Reason 1.4 (
    B and D)

    Summary
    --------

    ¶1. (C) XXXXXXXXXXXX, told Baku Iran watcher that the latter is "more
    powerful than Ahmadinejad," and played a key role in the
    Iranian election fraud and other regime activities. He
    described Mesbah-Yazdi's political ideology as profoundly
    anti-democratic, and argued that his behind-the-scenes
    influence is underestimated by many foreign observers. The
    scholar argued that Iran is currently going through a
    historic psychological and political transformation, and
    asserted that this process is continuing. He delineated
    three "critical phases" in this evolving transformation,
    which he claimed crosses age and class barriers. He
    portrayed Khameini as caught in this political maelstrom
    between a rock (Rafsanjani) and a hard place (Mesbah-Yazdi's
    circle), and searching for room to maneuver. He also
    stressed the "effective" use by the opposition of the
    internet and international media in getting their message
    out. The scholar also commented on Iranian drug addiction
    problems, noting the widespread and cheap availability of
    opiates and other addictive drugs. End Summary.

    ¶2. XXXXXXXXXXXX

    Focus on Mesbah-Yazdi
    ---------------------

    ¶3. XXXXXXXXXXXX, said that for several years he has
    been researching the life, ideology, and political activities
    of Ayatollah Mesbah-Yazdi, on whom he now considers himself
    an expert.XXXXXXXXXXXX .

    ¶4. (C) XXXXXXXXXXXXsaid that Mesbah-Yazdi likes to work behind
    the scenes, and as a result his significance in current
    Iranian politics (XXXXXXXXXXXX) is widely underestimated. Kaymars said that,
    like Khomeini, Mesbah-Yazdi sometimes cites Plato, and
    notably The Republic (as interpreted by him) as a
    "philosophical" guide. According to XXXXXXXXXXXX, Mesbah-Yazdi is
    deeply "anti-liberal democratic," regarding liberal democracy
    and its trappings as a charade leading to a wrongly-guided
    state based on selfishness, immorality, and diversion from
    morally and politically "right" paths.XXXXXXXXXXXX asserted that
    Mesbah-Yazdi has been quietly expanding his influence with
    Revolutionary Guard and Basij figures for years, and was the
    single most important player in the election fraud, and also
    played a key role in many other regime pre- and post-
    election actions. "You can't understand what's been going on
    in Iran without understanding (the beliefs and activities of)
    Mesbah-Yazdi," he claimed.

    "Iran is Being Transformed"
    --------------------------

    ¶5. (C) XXXXXXXXXXXX contended that an historic transformation is
    currently going on in Iran, unifying wide ranges of classes
    and ages. He described the transformation as a process with
    three "critical phases." Phase One, immediately after the
    election, was characterized by shock, anger, and "people

    BAKU 00000695 002 OF 003

    sobbing in the streets." He explained that before the
    election, many Iranians had argued that there was at least
    some democracy in the system, and that if left alone the
    regime would by itself evolve into a more democratic and
    liberal state. Even system opponents and self-declared
    skeptics felt that evolutionary change within the system was
    possible. According to XXXXXXXXXXXX, the blatantly stolen
    election and the cynical, repressive aftermath were "blows to
    the face" that largely demolished this view.

    ¶6. (C) Kaymars called Ayatollah Khameini's June 19 sermon
    "the second transformational point." He asserted that after
    Khameini's public anointment of Ahmedinejad, and references
    to his "divinely inspired" election victory, "Tehran
    exploded." He compared public reaction in the days after the
    election to the 1999 Tehran student demonstrations (in which
    he also participated). He explained that in 1999, "we hoped
    (in vain) for South Tehranis to join us," but in June and
    July 2009 "South Tehranis were everywhere."

    ¶7. (C) In contrast to 1999, he continued, for many days
    "everybody" protested and/or shouted slogans from the
    rooftops: &North Tehranis, South Tehranis, students,
    bazaaris, were chanting death to Khameini, death to the
    dictator, we are unified,8 and other protest slogans. "A
    lot of people were in the streets (in the days after the
    sermon), and a lot of shooting occurred," he said. XXXXXXXXXXXX"

    ¶8. (C) According to XXXXXXXXXXXX, "Phase Three" began with
    Rafsanjani's re-galvanizing sermon on July 17, and is
    currently ongoing. "Don't be misled by the current calm
    surface," he warned, "a lot of political activity is
    happening." XXXXXXXXXXXX. He nonetheless acknowledged
    Rafsanjani's "cleverness" and strength of personality, and
    said he remains important in the near term for intra-regime
    political maneuvering, and for "funneling money" to support
    the opposition.

    Khameini "Not Close to Ahmadinejad"
    -----------------------------------

    ¶9. (C) XXXXXXXXXXXX observed that Supreme Leader Khameini is not
    personally close to Ahmadinejad, or even strongly in favor of
    him, but is caught between the "rock" of Rafsanjani/Moussavi
    and the "hard place" of Mesbah-Yazdi, Ahmadinejad, and their
    Revolutionary Guard allies. He claimed that Khameini has
    limited political maneuverability, and is primarily focused
    on protecting his and his son Mojtaba's future. He asserted
    that opposition efforts are underway to split Khameini from
    the Mebah-Yazdi group, and scapegoat the latter for legal and
    human rights abuses.

    Opposition Use of Foreign Media and the Internet
    --------------------------------------------- --

    ¶10. (C) XXXXXXXXXXXX asserted that most Iranians are repulsed and
    embarrassed by the show trials, and despite nagging
    historical "default" suspicion of Britain, "no one believes
    that foreign countries were behind the protests." He said
    that Iranians have no confidence in domestic media, and
    claimed that Mousavi and his allies are effectively using
    foreign media and the internet to propagandize and get their
    word out. He said that, "even in villages, at least one
    person in every family is internet-literate," and claimed
    that Iranians have become adept at successfully playing "hide
    and seek" with the authorities," and are becoming more so."
    He added that BBC and VOA are widely watched, and are also
    playing "a very important role" in delivering and spreading
    opposition-based and other information.

    BAKU 00000695 003 OF 003

    Narcotics and Drug Addiction
    ----------------------------

    ¶11. (SBU)XXXXXXXXXXXX related that at three AM in Tehran
    University dorms, "you can't buy sweets, but can buy all
    kinds of narcotics," including heroin. One dose of
    heroin-based &Iranian Crack8 costs one dollar. In addition
    to the widespread availability of cheap opiate derivatives,
    he noted that the addictive, &high8 producing pain-killer
    Tramadol (AKA &Zydol8) is very popular and can be purchased
    without a prescription at any pharmacy, at the price of ten
    pills for 50 cents.

    Obama/U.S. "Very Popular" in Iran
    ---------------------------------

    ¶12. (SBU) According to XXXXXXXXXXXX, Iranians like President
    Obama very much, and appreciate his outreach efforts. "He's
    the only politician I've ever liked," he said. In general,
    the U.S. was and is very popular among Iranians, he noted.
    LU

`