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### Viewing cable 09CAIRO722, SCENESETTER FOR AMBASSADOR ROSS' VISIT TO EGYPT

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
09CAIRO722 | 2009-04-28 15:03 | 2010-12-13 21:09 | SECRET//NOFORN | Embassy Cairo

`

    VZCZCXRO1066
    OO RUEHBC RUEHDE RUEHDIR RUEHKUK
    DE RUEHEG #0722/01 1181534
    ZNY SSSSS ZZH
    O 281534Z APR 09
    FM AMEMBASSY CAIRO
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 2296
    INFO RUCNIRA/IRAN COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE

` `

    S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 CAIRO 000722

    NOFORN
    SIPDIS

    FROM AMBASSADOR SCOBEY FOR AMBASSADOR ROSS
    ABU DHABI PLEASE PASS TO ROSS DELEGATION

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/28/2029
    TAGS: PREL PARM KPAL IS LE SU IR EG
    SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR AMBASSADOR ROSS' VISIT TO EGYPT

    REF: A. CAIRO 705
    ¶B. CAIRO 618
    ¶C. CAIRO 451

    Classified By: Ambassador Margaret Scobey for reason 1.4 (b).

    ¶1. KEY POINTS:

    -- (S) President Mubarak sees Iran's attempts to exert
    influence throughout the region as Egypt's primary strategic
    threat. However, Mubarak's focus on the Iranian threat
    differs somewhat from ours. While he will readily admit that
    the Iranian nuclear program is a strategic and existential
    threat to Egypt and the region, he sees that threat as
    relatively "long term." What has seized his immediate
    attention are Iran's non-nuclear destabilizing actions such
    as support for HAMAS, media attacks, weapons and illicit
    funds smuggling, all of which add up in his mind to "Iranian
    influence spreading like a cancer from the GCC to Morocco."

    -- (S) In particular, Egypt views Iran as an adversary that
    is trying to undermine GOE efforts on Palestinian
    reconciliation and preventing weapons smuggling to Gaza,
    while endangering key GOE interests such as stability in
    Lebanon and Sudan.

    -- (S/NF) The GOE remains concerned with Iranian efforts to
    interfere in Gaza, Lebanon, Iraq and Sudan, and Egypt views
    the recently dismantled Sinai Hizballah cell as an
    unacceptable Iranian escalation.

    -- (S) The MFA believes that a harder U.S. line in UN fora on
    Israel's nuclear program would strengthen the U.S. position
    on demanding Iran cease working to develop nuclear weapons.

    ¶2. (S) Ambassador Ross, welcome to Egypt. Your visit comes
    as Egypt continues its efforts to mediate a permanent
    cease-fire between Israel and Hamas, to facilitate
    intra-Palestinian negotiations and to stop the smuggling of
    arms into Gaza. The GOE realizes that Iran is working to
    undermine all of these Egyptian efforts. Many Egyptians see
    the new U.S. Administration as a cause for optimism in both
    the bilateral relationship and in U.S. engagement with the
    region. President Mubarak appears ready to accept President
    Obama's invitation to visit Washington within the next
    several months, which will mark his first visit to Washington
    since April 2004. Special Envoy for the Middle East Senator
    George Mitchell has visited Egypt and the region three times.
    While President Mubarak unfortunately will not be available,
    we have requested meetings for you with Foreign Minister
    Aboul Gheit, Intelligence Chief Omar Soliman, Arab League
    Secretary-General Amre Moussa, National Democratic Party
    Assistant Secretary-General Gamal Mubarak and Interior
    Minister Habib Al-Adly.

    -----------------
    President Mubarak
    -----------------

    ¶3. (S/NF) President Mubarak has made it clear that he sees
    Iran as Egypt's -- and the region's -- primary strategic
    threat. His already dangerous neighborhood, he has stressed,
    has only become more so since the fall of Saddam, who, as
    nasty as he was, nevertheless stood as a wall against Iran,
    according to Mubarak. He now sees Tehran's hand moving with
    ease throughout the region, "from the Gulf to Morocco," as he
    told a recent congressional delegation. The immediate threat
    to Egypt comes from Iranian conspiracies with Hamas (which he
    sees as the "offspring" of his own most dangerous internal
    political threat, the Muslim Brotherhood) to stir up unrest
    in Gaza, but he is also concerned about Iranian machinations
    in Sudan and their efforts to create havoc elsewhere in the
    region, including in Lebanon via Hezbollah. While Tehran's
    nuclear threat is also a cause for concern, Mubarak is more
    urgently seized with what he sees as the rise of pan-Shi'ism
    and Iranian attempts to dominate the Middle East.

    ¶4. (S) The Egyptians have been clear they do not intend to
    resume normal diplomatic ties with the Iranians until
    specific political and security issues are addressed,
    including the renaming of "Islambouli Street" named after
    Sadat's assassin. The GOE recognizes that Iran's long arm
    has extended into Gaza via Hamas, but the same time, they are
    worried that we are going to strike a "grand deal" with the
    Iranians. Accordingly, the Egyptian MFA has reported to us
    that they are in touch with the Iranians and "listen" to them
    on regional issues. The prevailing GOE view remains a
    principled rejection of any diplomatic rapprochement, but we

    CAIRO 00000722 002 OF 003

    believe the Egyptians are maintaining contact in the event
    there is a need for a quick shift in their approach. The
    Egyptians are also marginally increasing cultural and
    economic ties with Iran. The Egyptians are also concerned
    about Iranian Shi'a proselytizing in Egypt.

    -----------------------
    EGIS Chief Omar Soliman
    -----------------------

    ¶5. (S/NF) Soliman, the key GOE advisor on national security
    policy after President Mubarak, recently told us that Egypt
    has started a confrontation with Hezbollah and Iran and will
    not allow Iran to operate in Egypt. Soliman has noted that
    after the GOE's recent arrest of a Hizballah cell in the
    Sinai, Egypt had sent a clear message to Iran that if they
    interfere in Egypt, Egypt will interfere in Iran, adding that
    EGIS had already begun recruiting agents in Iraq and Syria.
    Soliman has warned us against only focusing on one issue at
    time, such as Iran's nuclear weapons program. He believes
    Iran must pay the price for its actions and not be allowed to
    interfere in regional affairs. Soliman has offered GOE
    cooperation on Iran, and welcomes a U.S.-Egyptian partnership
    on combating Iranian influence in the region.

    ¶6. (S/NF) Soliman recently noted that Iranian financial
    support to Hamas amounted to $25 million a month, but that
    Egypt was "succeeding" in preventing financial support from
    entering Gaza through Egypt. According to Soliman, Iran has
    tried several times to pay the salaries for the al-Qassam
    Battalions, but Egypt had succeeded in preventing the money
    from reaching Gaza. Soliman has expressed concern over
    Hezbollah's first attempt to stand up a cell within Egypt,
    and noted to us that Iran was also trying to recruit support
    from the Sinai Bedouins, he claimed, in order to facilitate
    arms smuggling to Gaza.

    ----------------------------
    Foreign Minister Aboul Gheit
    ----------------------------

    ¶7. (C) Aboul Gheit has speculated that the new U.S.
    Administration will engage with Iran, but will be
    disappointed in late 2009 or early 2010 when it realizes that
    Iran will not stop its enrichment activities. Aboul Gheit
    believes Israel may then attack Iran. According to Aboul
    Gheit, the "intransigence" of Israel and Iran will place the
    U.S. in an awkward position with the Islamic world. Aboul
    Gheit will reiterate President Mubarak's strong opinion that
    the only real solution is a nuclear free zone in the Middle
    East, which would require Israel to give up its nuclear
    weapons. Aboul Gheit believes that while the U.S. may not
    perceive a nuclear-armed Israel as a threat, it is so
    perceived throughout the Middle East. In the Foreign
    Minister's opinion, if the U.S. pushed Israel to renounce
    nuclear weapons, the U.S. and Arab governments would be in a
    much stronger position to demand that Iran end its nuclear
    program.

    ¶8. (C) MFA officials have made it clear to us that they do
    not expect Israel to give up its nuclear weapons in the
    absence of comprehensive regional peace; however, the GOE is
    frustrated with what it perceives as a lack of political
    progress in international fora to advance the Middle East
    Resolution that came out of the 1995 Nuclear Proliferation
    Treaty (NPT) Review Conference, which called in part for a
    Middle East Nuclear Weapons Free Zone (MENWFZ). The GOE's
    campaign for progress on the eventual establishment of a
    MENWFZ -- even if the ultimate goal remains far in the future
    -- will likely guide their approach to the 2009 NPT
    Preparatory Conference in May and the 2010 NPT Review
    Conference.

    ------------------------------------
    Arab League Secretary-General Moussa
    ------------------------------------

    ¶9. (C) Moussa has publicly and privately minimized Iran's
    threat, claiming that the Arab world should strengthen its
    economic and cultural ties with Iran. Moussa believes that
    the Israeli-Palestinian conflict poses the greatest danger to
    the region, and has consistently pressed the U.S. to do more
    to stop Israeli settlement activity and advance the political
    process between Israelis and Palestinians. The Arab League's
    views on the importance of advancing a Middle East nuclear
    weapons free zone are similar to those of the MFA. Moussa
    also plays an important role in trying to manage intra-Arab
    squabbles, including Qatar-Syria vs. Egypt-Saudi Arabia. The
    Egyptians have made it clear that they consider the Qataris

    CAIRO 00000722 003 OF 003

    "nouveau riche upstarts" who are trying to buy their way to
    influence via big spending and posing as the "true" champions
    of the Palestinian cause by allying themselves with Syria and
    Iran. The Qatari attempt to invite Iran to the Doha Arab
    League summit incensed the Egyptians, many of whom blamed
    Moussa for mismanaging the issue.

    ----------------------
    Interior Minister Adly
    ----------------------

    ¶10. (S) Interior Minister General Habib Al-Adly focuses on
    counterterrorism and suppressing domestic political
    opposition. He will not offer strategic analysis of Iran
    role in the region, but should be able to provide details on
    the nascent Hizballah cell in the Sinai, which the GOE
    recently dismantled and arrested. Adly may also be able to
    share information on the steps the GOE is taking to disrupt
    the flow of Iranian-supplied arms from Sudan through Egypt to
    Gaza. In March, he told us that Egyptian police had killed
    arms smugglers trying to transfer weapons from Sudan into
    Egypt (ref C). He has described GOE efforts to combat
    smuggling over the long Egyptian-Sudanese border region as
    "difficult."

    -------------
    Gamal Mubarak
    --------------

    ¶11. (C) Ruling National Democratic Party (NDP) Assistant
    Secretary-General and Presidential son Gamal Mubarak does not
    currently play a significant role in Egypt's formal foreign
    policy process, focusing instead on NDP matters and economic
    development. Gamal's recent trip to Washington raised his
    political profile in Egypt, and he is of course a possible
    successor to his father. As a UK-trained former
    international banker, Gamal is perhaps most at home
    discussing economics and the current financial crisis.

    -------------------------------
    Internal Politics and Economics
    -------------------------------

    ¶12. (SBU) We continue to promote democratic reform in Egypt,
    including the expansion of political freedom and pluralism,
    and respect for human rights. Egyptian democracy and human
    rights efforts, however, are being stymied, and the GoE
    remains skeptical of our role in democracy promotion,
    complaining that any efforts to open up will result in
    empowering the Muslim Brotherhood, which currently holds 86
    seats in Egypt's 454-seat parliament. Economic reform is
    ongoing although Egypt still suffers from widespread poverty
    affecting 35-40% of the population. Egyptian-U.S. trade has
    more than doubled in the last four years, reaching almost $9
    billion in 2008. The U.S. exports to Egypt about twice as
    much as it imports. Egyptian banks operate very
    conservatively and have been spared involvement in risky
    financial products, but the effects of the global economic
    crisis on Egypt are beginning to be felt. As the global
    credit crunch worsens, Egypt remains vulnerable as exports,
    Suez Canal revenues, tourism, and remittances -- its largest
    sources of revenue -- are all down and likely to continue to
    fall.
    SCOBEY

`