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### Viewing cable 05PARIS4760, PS FIRST SECRETARY FRANCOIS HOLLANDE UNDERWHELMS

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
05PARIS4760 | 2005-07-08 08:08 | 2010-12-01 12:12 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy Paris

`

    This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

    080857Z Jul 05

` `

    C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PARIS 004760

    SIPDIS

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/07/2015
    TAGS: PGOV PREL FR
    SUBJECT: PS FIRST SECRETARY FRANCOIS HOLLANDE UNDERWHELMS
    AMBASSADORIAL GROUP

    Classified By: DCM Alex Wolff for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

    ¶1. (C) Summary: Francois Hollande, First Secretary of
    France's deeply fragmented Socialist Party (PS), on June 30
    presented his take on a variety of French, EU and foreign
    policy issues to an informal "Circle of Ambassadors" group,
    attended by Charge. Hollande's analysis impressed
    participants as sound and insightful. His lack of a clear
    program of action to contend with French socio-economic
    difficulties, however, left his audience asking if he is
    capable of projecting himself as a candidate with a clear
    message and a winning program. On display were both
    Hollande's questionable viability as a candidate in the 2007
    elections and the PS's lack of unity and coherent vision.
    End Summary.

    EU Constitution and the PS
    --------------------------
    ¶2. (SBU) France's Socialist Party (PS) hosted, for the first
    time, a "Circle of Ambassadors" group to hear party First
    Secretary Francois Hollande give an overview of key issues

    SIPDIS
    and answer participants' questions. While his general
    presentation was unremarkable, Hollande proved more
    insightful in answering questions. Addressing the failed EU
    Constitutional referendum, Hollande noted there were a number
    of reasons for the 'no' outcome, including the need for a
    collective effort earlier in the campaign to better explain
    the content of the treaty. Part of the problem, Hollande
    reasoned, was in the prevailing view of the EU; whereas it
    had previously been seen as a protective institution, issues
    such as the Bolkestein proposal to create a single services
    market and "liberal" (free-market) labor laws have sparked
    fear and concern. Hollande also saw rising nationalism as a
    factor. Rather than seeing the EU as the guarantor of peace
    and stability, citizens are asking what is in it for them.
    Hollande expressed his disappointment in the lack of
    discipline within the PS in support of the Constitution
    adding that just as lack of party discipline had had
    consequences for the future of Europe, it should also have
    consequences for those party members who broke ranks. The
    split within the Socialists over the EU Constitution was a
    key factor in its defeat, according to Hollande. The divide
    legitimized both the PS 'yes' and 'no' camps, as supporters
    of either could point to a PS leader championing their cause.
    Hollande took a swipe at PS no-camp leader Laurent Fabius,
    stating that his support of the 'no' was not based on the
    merits of the Constitution, but on "ulterior motives" -- that
    is, Fabius's ambition to make himself the PS candidate in the
    2007 presidential election. Hollande announced that the PS
    would decide on its candidate for 2007 at the party congress
    in mid-November, and added that party members who,
    afterwards, presented themselves as an alternative candidate
    would be expelled from the party.

    Future of the EU
    ----------------
    3.. (SBU) All elections within Europe have an EU dimension,
    according to Hollande, who added that domestic and EU policy
    were becoming difficult to separate. Hollande noted that,
    over the medium-to-long term, politics in European countries
    tend towards regular alternation in power between center-left
    and center-right -- which should currently favor the
    center-left, as many European countries (among them France,
    the Netherlands, and Italy) are currently led by the
    center-right. Hollande said that the center-left parties of
    Europe needed to work together and develop a coordinated,
    common approach. Hollande also remarked that Europe was
    facing a crisis of confidence and identity. The French and
    Dutch rejections of the EU Constitution laid bare this crisis
    in Europe and would have the effect of prolonging it. First
    among the concerns was the issue of EU borders. An EU-wide
    debate was necessary to discuss how big the EU should become
    and what its purpose should be. These comments struck many
    as intimating re-consideration by the PS of its position
    favoring Turkey's inclusion in the EU. Hollande also noted
    that the EU shouldn't wait for any new constitutional
    initiatives to secure several essential goals, such as a
    common foreign minister and voting weights and other
    decision-making changes.

    French Politics and 2007 Presidential Race
    ------------------------------------------
    ¶4. (SBU) Hollande asserted that victory in the presidential
    election in 2007 would go to the party that provides
    solutions to the problems of France. If the Socialists can't
    engender confidence, he stated, they risk resorting to
    populism and the "us against them" mentality that showed
    itself during the EU Constitutional debate in the guise of
    the Polish plumber. Hollande stated that reforms in France
    were difficult to effect and often the result of legislation
    imposed by the majority party rather than compromise among
    stakeholders -- a system Hollande characterized as
    ineffective. Hollande cited job creation as a most urgent
    challenge facing France, and pointed out that 70 percent of
    jobs in France are short term or of a fixed duration. (Note.
    This is largely a result of the French employment laws that
    make it inordinately difficult to fire full-time employees.
    End Note.) Hollande observed that the vaunted "French social
    model" (often invoked by President Chirac) was a recent idea,
    and added that he did not know what it meant. The PS, he
    stated, speaks of an EU social model, but the current French
    government touts a model no one wants to follow.

    ¶5. (SBU) Hollande made several predictions regarding the
    2007 presidential elections, notably that Chirac would not be
    a candidate. Sarkozy would leave the government before the
    elections, likely under protest so he could criticize Chirac
    and Villepin. The Socialists would reunify before 2007,
    unless an opposition candidate rose to challenge the official
    flag-bearer. Hollande foresaw the UMP candidate making the
    second round of elections, with the PS candidate representing
    the left. Ultimately, Hollande reiterated, the winner would
    be the candidate offering the most credible promise of
    change. (Paradoxically, his presentation inspired no such
    impression.)

    Asia and Africa
    ---------------
    ¶6. (SBU) Describing Asia as a dynamic, competitive, and
    important region, Hollande similarly noted that it was
    causing economic unease in France. It was not constructive
    to simply tell people to work harder, he said. Hollande
    stated that regulations were needed to protect economic
    interests, but was careful to underline that he did not
    support protectionism, just the guarantee that all parties
    should play by the same rules. Touching briefly on Africa,
    Hollande remarked that France had a unique responsibility to
    the continent. The EU is seen as the panacea to African
    problems and aid to Africa should be increased, he added.

    Comment
    -------
    ¶7. (C) Hollande is right that the next President of France
    is likely to be the candidate who offers the most credible
    promise of change. Hollande, however, seems unlikely to be
    that candidate. Hollande does not project as a leader
    implementing a clear program of action. He has often been
    criticized for his diffidence and lack of "political punch."
    True to that image, he did not demonstrate the confidence or
    talent for galvanizing others to action that voters look for
    in a candidate. His comments on issues focused on general
    diagnoses, not concrete remedies. His vision for the party
    made the Socialists appear adrift. Interestingly, every
    positive example of Socialist leadership that Hollande
    outlined came under Jospin, which raises the question as to
    whether Hollande is preparing Jospin's return, even if
    unconsciously. End Comment.
    STAPLETON

`