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### Viewing cable 07SINGAPORE1932, LEE KUAN YEW ON BURMA'S "STUPID" GENERALS AND THE

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
07SINGAPORE1932 | 2007-10-19 08:08 | 2010-12-12 21:09 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy Singapore

`

    VZCZCXRO3881
    PP RUEHCHI RUEHCN RUEHDT RUEHGH RUEHHM RUEHNH RUEHVC
    DE RUEHGP #1932/01 2920841
    ZNY CCCCC ZZH
    P 190841Z OCT 07
    FM AMEMBASSY SINGAPORE
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 4263
    INFO RUCNASE/ASEAN MEMBER COLLECTIVE
    RUEHOO/CHINA POSTS COLLECTIVE
    RUEHBY/AMEMBASSY CANBERRA 1998
    RUEHNE/AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI 1842
    RUEHUL/AMEMBASSY SEOUL 4105
    RUEHKO/AMEMBASSY TOKYO 5723
    RUEHWL/AMEMBASSY WELLINGTON 1359
    RHHMUNA/CDR USPACOM HONOLULU HI
    RHEHNSC/NSC WASHINGTON DC

` `

    C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 SINGAPORE 001932

    SIPDIS

    SIPDIS

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/17/2017
    TAGS: PREL PGOV ECON CH TW BM SN
    SUBJECT: LEE KUAN YEW ON BURMA'S "STUPID" GENERALS AND THE
    "GAMBLER" CHEN SHUI-BIAN

    Classified By: Ambassador Patricia L. Herbold. Reasons 1.4(b)(d)

    ¶1. (C) Summary: ASEAN should not have admitted Burma,
    Cambodia, Laos, and Vietnam into the organization in the
    1990's, Minister Mentor Lee Kuan Yew told visiting EAP DAS
    Christensen and the Ambassador October 16. Expressing his
    scorn for Burma's leaders, MM Lee called them "dense" and
    "stupid." After discussing China's influence over Burma, he
    suggested that Indonesian President Yudhoyono, as a former
    general, could potentially be an interlocutor with the
    regime. Turning to cross-Strait relations, MM Lee
    characterized President Chen Shui-bian as a "gambler" who was
    ready to "go for broke" on independence. He thought that
    Japan might be willing to speak out publicly to constrain
    Taiwan now that Yasuo Fukuda was prime minister. China's
    strategy for Southeast Asia was simple -- "come grow with me"
    because China's rise is inevitable. MM Lee urged the United
    States to pursue more Free Trade Agreements to give the
    region options besides China. End Summary.

    ASEAN's Problematic Newer Members
    ---------------------------------

    ¶2. (C) Regional stability will be enhanced the more ASEAN is
    able to "get its act together," Minister Mentor Lee Kuan Yew
    told visiting EAP DAS Christensen and the Ambassador during
    an October 16 meeting. However, ASEAN should not have
    admitted Burma, Cambodia, Laos and Vietnam as members in the
    1990's, Lee argued. The older members of ASEAN shared common
    values and an antipathy to Communism. Those values had been
    "muddied" by the new members, and their economic and social
    problems made it doubtful they would ever behave like the
    older ASEAN members.

    ¶3. (C) MM Lee was most optimistic about Vietnam. He
    characterized the Vietnamese as "bright, fast learners" who
    will contribute to ASEAN's development. Vietnam also does
    not want to see China's influence in Southeast Asia become
    too great. Cambodia has not recovered yet from its difficult
    history and the political system is too personalized around
    Prime Minister Hun Sen. MM Lee dismissed Laos as an outpost
    for China, saying Laos reports back to China on theQproceedings from all ASEAN
    meetings.

    Burma's Generals: "Dense" and "Stupid"
    --------------------------------------

    ¶4. (C) Turning to Burma, MM Lee expressed his scorn for the
    regime's leadership. He said he had given up on them a
    decade ago, called them "dense" and "stupid" and said they
    had "mismanaged" the country's great natural resources. He
    asserted that China had the greatest influence over the
    regime and had heavily penetrated the Burmese economy. China
    was worried that the country could "blow up" which would
    endanger its significant investments, pipelines, and the
    approximately two million Chinese estimated to be working in
    the country. India was worried about China's influence in
    Burma and was engaged with the regime in an attempt to
    minimize China's influence. India lacked China's finer grasp
    of how Burma worked, however.

    Resolving the Crisis in Burma
    -----------------------------

    ¶5. (C) MM Lee thought one possible solution to the crisis in
    Burma would be for a group of younger military officers who
    were less "obtuse" to step forward and recognize that the
    current situation was untenable. They could share power with
    the democracy activists, although probably not with Aung San
    Suu Kyi, who was anathema to the military. It would be a
    long process. He said that Burma's ambassador in Singapore
    had told MFA that Burma could "survive any sanctions" due to
    its natural resources. Lee said dealing with the regime was
    like "talking to dead people."

    SBY as Envoy?
    -------------

    ¶6. (C) Asked about the possibility of ASEAN naming a Burma
    envoy, MM Lee said an envoy could not be from Singapore,
    because Singapore is seen as too close to the United States.
    He suggested that Indonesian President Yudhoyono could
    potentially be an interlocutor. As a former general, SBY

    SINGAPORE 00001932 002 OF 003

    might be able to meet with Senior General Than Shwe and get
    him to listen. Furthermore, SBY is "keen to play the role of
    peacemaker," but the challenge would be getting someone who
    is not too close to the United States to ask him to do it.
    MM Lee said that Vietnam was a possibility.

    Chen Shui-bian: The Gambler
    ---------------------------

    ¶7. (C) MM Lee told DAS Christensen his September 11 speech to
    the U.S.-Taiwan Business Council set the right "balance" and
    made it clear to both sides where the United States stands.
    He criticized President Chen Shui-bian for being a "gambler."
    Chen had discredited himself with his corruption scandals
    and the only card he had left was promoting Taiwan
    independence; with nothing left to lose, Chen was ready to
    "go for broke." MM Lee asserted that Chen feared a
    post-election criminal investigation regardless of whether
    the KMT or DPP won and had to "consolidate his position."
    Chen wanted to secure his legacy and avoid becoming a mere
    "footnote" in Taiwan history.

    ¶8. (C) Lee said he had told Frank Hsieh and Su Tseng-chang in
    separate meetings earlier this year that Taiwan would gain
    nothing from pursuing independence and would pay a great cost
    if it did. They responded that if Taiwan did nothing, it
    would be reunified with the mainland; they did not want to be
    a part of the PRC under any circumstances. Lee said he
    understood their negative history with the KMT but found
    their "antipathy, hatred, and revulsion" toward China to be
    "unbelievable."

    A Role for Japan
    ----------------

    ¶9. (C) Japan should speak out to restrain Taiwan from making
    provocative moves towards independence, MM Lee said. He
    asked what Japan had agreed to do in response to the proposed
    referendum on joining the UN under the name Taiwan. DAS
    Christensen noted that Japan has expressed its opposition
    privately with President Chen, but did not agree to make any
    public statements opposing the referendum. MM Lee suggested
    that Japan might be willing to make a public statement now
    with Yasuo Fukuda serving as prime minister. Fukuda has
    close ties to the KMT and his father even risked China's ire
    to attend former President Chiang Ching-kuo's funeral in
    1988, according to Lee.

    Dealing with a Rising China
    ---------------------------

    ¶10. (C) The more fundamental issue was how to deal with a
    rising China, MM Lee observed. The intellectual resources of
    the United States were being "sucked away" by the problems in
    the Middle East, making it difficult for the United States to
    focus on China. Over the next several decades, China wants
    to concentrate on its internal economic development and to
    avoid a conflict over Taiwan, Lee averred. However, if
    Taiwan declared independence, China would have no choice but
    to respond with force because its leaders have left
    themselves no "loopholes." China hopes that the Taiwan issue
    will be resolved on its own over the next fifty years when
    Taiwan's economy becomes "totally embedded" into China. He
    pointed to the case of Hong Kong, where the economy has been
    booming in recent years due to its greater access to China's
    market and the influx of tourists from the PRC.

    ASEAN and China
    ---------------

    ¶11. (C) China's strategy for Southeast Asia was fairly
    simple, MM Lee claimed. China tells the region, "come grow
    with me." At the same time, China's leaders want to convey
    the impression that China's rise is inevitable and that
    countries will need to decide if they want to be China's
    friend or foe when it "arrives." China is also willing to
    calibrate its engagement to get what it wants or express its
    displeasure. In the case of Singapore, China took "great
    umbrage" over then-Deputy Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong's
    July 2004 visit to Taiwan. China froze bilateral talks, and
    the proposed bilateral Free Trade Agreement (FTA) has not
    progressed. However, China did not "squeeze" any of
    Singapore's investors and China remains the largest

    SINGAPORE 00001932 003 OF 003

    destination for Singapore's FDI. MM Lee urged the United
    States to pursue more FTAs with ASEAN, or at least key
    members of ASEAN, which would give the region more options.
    He said Malaysia's unwillingness to bend on its "bumiputera"
    policy had been an impediment to a U.S.-Malaysia FTA.

    ¶12. (U) DAS Christensen has cleared this message.

    Visit Embassy Singapore's Classified website:
    http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eap/singapore/ind ex.cfm
    HERBOLD

`