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### Viewing cable 09BERLIN978, GERMANY REASSURES THE BALTS TO INCREASE MANEUVER

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
09BERLIN978 | 2009-08-11 10:10 | 2010-12-06 21:09 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy Berlin

`

    VZCZCXRO9421
    OO RUEHDBU RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHNP RUEHROV RUEHSL RUEHSR
    DE RUEHRL #0978/01 2231003
    ZNY CCCCC ZZH
    O 111003Z AUG 09
    FM AMEMBASSY BERLIN
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 4915
    INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE

` `

    C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BERLIN 000978

    SIPDIS

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/10/2019
    TAGS: GM MARR MOPS NATO PREL RU ZB
    SUBJECT: GERMANY REASSURES THE BALTS TO INCREASE MANEUVER
    ROOM WITH RUSSIA

    REF: BERLIN 806

    Classified By: Acting Political Minister Counselor Stan Otto for reason
    s 1.4 (c) and (d).

    ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Germany continues to regard proposed NATO
    contingency planning to defend the Balts against possible
    Russian aggression as counterproductive and unnecessary, but
    it has gone out of its way in recent months to take other
    measures to reassure the Balts that it takes their security
    concerns seriously. Germany has again volunteered to head
    the NATO Baltic Air Policing Mission, and Defense Minister
    Jung made an unprecedented trip to all three countries in
    early June. The German MFA and MOD hope these and other
    measures will assuage Baltic fears sufficiently to allow
    German initiatives in drawing Russia closer to NATO to go
    forward. The MFA sees an opportunity to deepen security
    cooperation, even on missile defense given increased Russian
    concern regarding Iran. Overall, Germany recognizes that
    working with Russia is difficult, but hopes that U.S. efforts
    to improve relations along with increased NATO-Russian
    cooperation will move Russia further along the path to
    becoming a reliable international partner. END SUMMARY.

    REACHING OUT

    ¶2. (C) While the MFA and MOD offices responsible for the
    Baltic countries and NATO do not characterize it as such,
    Germany appears to have undertaken a deliberate effort in
    recent months to demonstrate to the Balts that it takes their
    security concerns seriously. It has volunteered again to
    head the NATO Baltic Air Policing Mission, beginning August
    31, which involves the deployment of four fighter aircraft to
    Lithuania. Everyone recognizes that the aircraft themselves
    could do little against a Russian attack, but Germany hopes
    the Balts see them as a symbol of German (and NATO)
    commitment to Article 5. Given the extreme economic troubles
    in the Balts, the German MOD expects this commitment to last
    several more years, as the countries are unlikely to be able
    to afford their own aircraft anytime soon.

    ¶3. (C) Another indication of German efforts to build bridges
    to the Balts was Defense Minister Jung's unprecedented trip
    to all three countries in early June to discuss how to
    increase security cooperation. During the four-day trip,
    Jung not only met his counterparts, but with the presidents
    of all three countries as well. For the most part, the visit
    was about building upon an already robust relationship, which
    has included German training and exchange programs for
    hundreds of Baltic troops in recent years.

    THE WORRIES AND HOPES

    ¶4. (C) Although MFA Head of Northern Europe Division Thomas
    Terstegen argues that the Baltic states are less concerned
    about Russian aggression than they were last fall in the
    immediate aftermath of the war in Georgia, contacts recognize
    that the fundamental apprehension regarding Russia will not
    disappear soon. MFA Deputy Head of NATO Division Gunnar
    Denecke wondered whether the July 16 open letter to the U.S.
    signed by former Central and Eastern European leaders --
    along with Swedish Defense Minister Tolgfors July 3 comments
    regarding the EU's Baltic Sea Strategy -- would cause the
    Balts to become more suspicious of Russian intentions.

    ¶5. (C) The MFA considers the efforts of "some NATO partners,
    like the Balts" to stall NATO-Russia Council (NRC)
    cooperation as an impediment to U.S. efforts to improve
    relations with Russia. Moreover, the Balts' demand for NATO
    contingency planning against possible Russian aggression is
    likely to worry Russia even more, according to the MOD. Even
    though the Balts are proving troublesome in the NRC, the MFA
    is equally frustrated by Russia's attempts to block
    cooperation. The MFA believes the best move Russia could
    take to improve NRC relations would be to remove (Russian
    Permanent Representative) Rogozin from Brussels.

    ¶6. (C) Despite these tensions, the MFA sees a window of
    opportunity to improve security cooperation with Russia
    because of growing Russian suspicion of Iran. Looking at the
    recent G8 Summit statement and conversations from
    German-Russian consultations in July, the MFA thinks Russia
    may be willing to cooperate more with NATO vis-a-vis Iran,
    perhaps even on missile defense (MD). Although the MFA
    acknowledges that it would be a hard sell, they do not
    consider it a lost cause.

    COMMENT

    ¶7. (C) The Germans are well-aware that their attempts to
    accommodate and reach out to the Russians are viewed with
    suspicion by many countries in eastern Europe. Defense

    BERLIN 00000978 002 OF 002

    Minister Jung's trip to the Baltic countries, Germany's
    participation in the NATO Baltic Air Policing Mission and
    Steinmeier's joint visit to Ukraine with Polish FM Sikorski
    (reftel) are all aimed at reassuring the Balts and other east
    Europeans that Berlin takes their security concerns
    seriously. The German calculation is that these efforts will
    give them more freedom to draw Russia closer to NATO without
    incurring automatic opposition from the new Allies. The
    Germans are also hoping to forestall moves that they feel
    would be counterproductive to the development of closer
    NATO-Russia relations, particularly NATO contingency planning
    oriented specifically against possible Russian aggression.
    On MD, the Germans seem to be betting that in the end, we
    will decide to pursue some kind of system to protect European
    allies and forward-deployed U.S. forces against missile
    threats. As a result, they are urging the Russians to keep
    an open mind about MD so that this issue does not derail
    overall NATO-Russia cooperation down the road. End Comment.
    Bradtke

`