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### Viewing cable 10PARIS79, SCENESETTER FOR YOUR VISIT TO PARIS ON JANUARY 29,

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
10PARIS79 | 2010-01-25 17:05 | 2010-12-23 21:09 | SECRET//NOFORN | Embassy Paris

`

    VZCZCXRO7289
    PP RUEHDBU RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHNP RUEHROV RUEHSL
    DE RUEHFR #0079/01 0251728
    ZNY SSSSS ZZH
    P 251728Z JAN 10
    FM AMEMBASSY PARIS
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8127
    INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
    RUEHIL/AMEMBASSY ISLAMABAD PRIORITY 1063
    RUEHBUL/AMEMBASSY KABUL PRIORITY 0944
    RUEHTV/AMEMBASSY TEL AVIV PRIORITY 0324
    RHEHNSC/WHITE HOUSE NSC WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
    RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY

` `

    S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 05 PARIS 000079

    NOFORN
    SIPDIS

    FOR SECRETARY CLINTON FROM AMBASSADOR RIVKIN

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/22/2020
    TAGS: PREL PGOV FR AF IS IR
    SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR YOUR VISIT TO PARIS ON JANUARY 29,
    2010

    Classified By: Ambassador Charles Rivkin for reasons 1.4(b) and (d).

    ¶1. (C/NF) Madam Secretary: President Sarkozy, Foreign
    Minister Kouchner, and U.S Embassy Paris look forward
    to welcoming you on your first bilateral trip to France as
    Secretary of State. Your visit is taking place at a
    time that many consider to be one of the best periods in
    Franco-American relations. Coming on the heels of the
    highly visible London conference on Afghanistan, we
    anticipate intense media interest in you, your visit,
    and the speech you will be making on European security
    issues. Your meetings with the President, National
    Security Advisor, and Foreign Minister, as well as your
    policy speech, will help us reinforce the need for
    increased French engagement in Afghanistan, consolidate
    support for next steps on Iran, manage expectations on
    the Middle East peace process, exchange latest views on
    Russia and China, promote cooperation on Haiti
    humanitarian assistance and work toward our counter-
    terrorism and non-proliferation goals. Your visit will
    also be an opportunity to demonstrate our close ties
    with two publicly "pro-American" French leaders and to
    express deep appreciation of France as a major bilateral
    partner on global issues. End Summary.

    ------------------
    DOMESTIC SITUATION
    ------------------

    ¶2. (C/NF) President Sarkozy will not face re-election
    until 2012 and his UMP party currently controls both
    houses of Parliament. His domestic political
    opposition remains divided and leaderless. Regional
    elections scheduled for late March will test Sarkozy's
    continuing levels of political support, and we are
    seeing increased political posturing as those campaigns
    get underway nationwide. Responsibility for foreign
    affairs decisions is highly concentrated in the
    activist French President, whose impatience with slower
    diplomatic processes is legendary. Sarkozy is a firm
    believer that it takes the personal intervention of
    leaders to cut through bureaucratic resistance and to
    achieve necessary results, a worldview that pre-
    disposes him to propose high-level summits on
    everything from the Middle East to European security.
    Despite their differing personalities and political
    parties, Kouchner and Sarkozy have
    developed a good working relationship, with Kouchner
    supporting his President and carving out complementary
    areas of responsibility, focusing on humanitarian
    affairs, the Balkans, Africa, and Syria-Lebanon. While
    there is some media speculation about a possible cabinet
    re-shuffle after the March elections, any final decision
    on the Foreign Minister's portfolio will have to take
    into account that Kouchner remains one of the most
    popular politicians in France. Both Sarkozy and
    Kouchner, as well as NSA Levitte, are unabashedly "pro-
    American," which is refreshing after years of French
    politicians defining French power in opposition to,
    rather than cooperation with, American power.

    -----------------------------------
    AFGHANISTAN: COMMITTED BUT SKEPTICAL
    -----------------------------------

    ¶3. (S/NF) Afghanistan will be an intense focus of
    interest as your visit immediately follows the London
    conference, which President Sarkozy has been pushing as
    a way to help sell French engagement in Afghanistan to
    a skeptical public. While Sarkozy said very publicly
    in October 2009 that France would "not send one soldier
    more to Afghanistan," he has reiterated publicly, as
    recently as January 22, his commitment that France will
    remain in Afghanistan "as long as necessary" to
    complete NATO's mission in support of the Afghan
    people. It remains unclear, however, whether France
    will make new public announcements of French
    contributions to Afghanistan in advance of the March
    elections. While France does not have the more
    virulent and active opposition to the war that you see
    in some European countries, the most recent public
    opinion polls show that over 80 percent of the French
    public is opposed to the deployment of troops in

    PARIS 00000079 002 OF 005

    Afghanistan. With over 3,750 soldiers in Afghanistan,
    France is currently the fourth largest contributor of
    troops to ISAF and has lost 39 soldiers in the war,
    several very recently. The French were recently
    embarrassed by the withdrawal of France's candidate to
    become the EU Special Representative to Afghanistan,
    but they hope that naming a new UN Special
    Representative and NATO Senior Civilian Representative
    will send a strong signal of unity and improve overall
    civilian coordination in Afghanistan. Paris supports a
    follow-on meeting in Kabul, but French officials
    believe that it should not take place too soon, the
    better to allow the Afghan government to form its full
    cabinet and develop of
    detailed work program.

    ----------------------------------
    IRAN: FRANCE'S STRONG STANCE
    ----------------------------------

    ¶4. (S/NF) Driven by a personal conviction that time is
    playing against a diplomatic solution to the Iranian
    nuclear issue, Sarkozy has led his government and the
    EU in confronting Iranian nuclear ambitions. Sarkozy
    publicly reiterated on January 22 that the "prospect of
    a nuclear armed Iran is unacceptable" and pressed for
    UNSC action to bring Iran to the negotiating table.
    The GOF is developing a package of sanctions that
    target the broad economic interests of the Iranian
    Revolutionary Guard Corps and include the areas of
    finance, insurance, transport, and oil and gas. The
    French believe Iranian elections in June changed many
    people's opinions about Iran and they expect the EU
    will support enhanced sanctions. The GOF hopes a new
    UN Security Council Resolution on Iran can be passed
    quickly, and it expects Russia will support such a
    move. However, it is less optimistic about China. For
    the past two years, the GOF has pursued rapprochement
    with Syria, in part for the purpose of trying to weaken
    Damascus's ties with Tehran. France has a citizen,
    Clotilde Reiss, being detained by the Iranian regime on
    charges of supporting anti-government protests. Last
    autumn, Sarkozy and Kouchner personalized this issue by
    publicly condemning the actions of the Iranian
    government. Since then, reportedly, Sarkozy has
    personally managed the effort to obtain her release.

    -----------------------------------------
    MIDDLE EAST PEACE: IMPATIENT FOR ACTION
    -----------------------------------------

    ¶5. (S/NF) Sarkozy continues to push France to play a
    major role in finding Middle East peace, but he is
    impatient and often tries to rush events ahead of USG
    plans. For over a year, Sarkozy has promoted a high-
    profile peace conference in Paris, despite our
    cautioning that the Israeli and Palestinian sides must
    first show they are ready to negotiate. During a
    January 12 meeting, NSA Levitte told SE Mitchell that
    Sarkozy now wants to host a conference in the spring
    dedicated to strengthening the institutions of a
    Palestinian state. He added that, in the meantime, if
    progress is made on the political track, the meeting
    could be used to help re-launch peace talks. The
    French agree with us on the need to help President
    Abbas return to the negotiating table by offering
    assistance programs, guarantees, and the support of
    Arab leaders. However Kouchner also mentioned to SE
    Mitchell the controversial idea of offering to
    recognize a Palestinian state now, with undefined
    borders, or offering to recognize a Palestinian state
    within a defined timeline, regardless of the outcome of
    negotiations. Sarkozy's personal engagement in
    supporting the peace process is reflected in his visits
    to the region and in receiving Israeli, Egyptian,
    Lebanese, Syrian, and Palestinian leaders, most
    recently Saad Hariri January 21. France is also
    interested in serving as a possible intermediary to
    help re-launch the Syrian-Israeli peace track.

    --------------------------
    RUSSIA: PUSHING ENGAGEMENT
    --------------------------

    PARIS 00000079 003 OF 005

    ¶6. (C/NF) President Sarkozy is convinced that
    engagement with Moscow is the best way to influence
    Russian behavior and therefore seeks to create
    stronger Russian linkages to western institutions.
    Expect Sarkozy to emphasize the importance of
    developing a common approach with the U.S. toward
    Russia that builds on the Washington-Moscow "reset"
    and reflects French priorities, including: promoting
    economic cooperation; encouraging Russia to work
    through institutions with set rules; publicly
    supporting Russian actions while taking a more
    honest approach in private meetings; and cultivating
    relations with Russian President Dmitri Medvedev, in
    the hope that he can become a leader independent of
    Vladimir Putin. Sarkozy or Kouchner may well seek to
    discuss our next steps with Russia, once the START
    talks have been completed, and they may push for
    an early re-launch of CFE negotiations. If pressed,
    Sarkozy will argue that the proposed sale of
    Mistral-class ships to Russia offers another
    opportunity to anchor Russia to Western institutions
    -- just as French support for an OSCE summit to discuss
    European security is designed to entangle Russia in a
    web of commitments that address the human rights and
    other elements of the OSCE mandate. France will have
    multiple opportunities to engage with senior Russian
    leaders this year, which the French and Russians have
    dubbed, "The Year of Russia in France and the Year of
    France in Russia." Sarkozy will visit Moscow in
    February, and Medvedev will visit France in March.
    Your meeting offers an opportunity to exchange
    ideas and coordinate our positions in advance of these
    meetings.

    ---------------------------------
    NON-PROLIFERATION AND DISARMAMENT
    ---------------------------------

    ¶7. (S/NF) France can act -- and has -- as a "force
    multiplier" for the United States with more passive
    European partners on non-proliferation issues from Iran
    to supporting UN counter-proliferation capacity-building
    efforts. We continue to work closely together on the
    May Review Conference for the Nuclear Non-Proliferation
    Treaty (NPT RevCon) to engage Non-Aligned Movement nations
    who resist stronger non-proliferation measures. However,
    the approach of the NPT RevCon highlights a policy
    divergence on nuclear disarmament. France argues that U.S.
    efforts to highlight our own disarmament commitment at
    the RevCon would open the door for non-aligned nations
    to make the conference a referendum on actual disarmament
    progress by the P3, rather than on proliferation concerns.
    As France has already made significant disarmament efforts
    and has a markedly smaller nuclear arsenal than the United
    States, French officials worry that pressure for
    additional cuts would negatively impact France's nuclear
    deterrent capabilities. The French frequently express
    their concern that any calls for a "world free of nuclear
    weapons" serve to delegitimize nuclear weapons, which
    are a core pillar of French defense. The French
    understand the United States is also committed to
    maintaining a nuclear deterrent force for as long as
    necessary, but will look to the release of the Nuclear
    Posture Review for hints of how the U.S. disarmament
    vision will translate into concrete action.
    Additionally, any efforts at NATO to push for even
    a partial rethink on the role of nuclear weapons in
    alliance strategy would be deeply worrying to the French.

    ----------------------------------
    FRANCE A MAJOR PARTNER IN AFRICA
    ----------------------------------

    ¶8. (C/NF) Under President Sarkozy, France has
    remained one of our strongest partners in Africa.
    Sarkozy has sought to put Franco-African relations on
    firmer, institutional grounds in contrast to the
    personalized leader-to-leader relationships that
    prevailed following French decolonization. FM Kouchner
    particularly appreciates his engagement with you on
    African issues -- particularly your close collaboration
    on Guinea that has borne fruit, with junta leader

    PARIS 00000079 004 OF 005

    Dadis' decision not to return to Guinea and the
    apparent move towards elections. Other areas of
    important cooperation include our countering al Qaida
    in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) and other terrorist
    efforts in the Sahel region, combating piracy off the
    Horn of Africa, and seeking stability in Somalia, where
    the French have been active in training Somali security
    forces.

    ----------------------------
    COUNTER-TERRORISM/GUANTANAMO
    ----------------------------

    ¶9. (C/NF) France engages in a robust intelligence
    exchange with the United States on worldwide
    counter-terrorism issues of interest, including
    Afghanistan, Yemen, the Sahel, and threats to homeland
    security. France is particularly well-placed to
    support U.S. counter-terrorism goals in Africa,
    especially the Sahel region. In meetings with S/CT
    Ambassador Benjamin, French Ministry of Interior
    officials expressed their willingness to work with
    the United States on African counter-terrorism issues
    and asked that we coordinate our operations in the
    region to avoid duplication of effort. Given their
    history in the region, the French would like to be
    seen as leading the counter-terrorism effort in the
    Sahel, rather than simply following us. France
    accepted four former Guantanamo detainees with
    claims to immigration status in France in July 2004
    and an additional three in March 2005.
    France was also the first country to accept detainees
    without any claim to immigration status in the
    accepting country. In May and December 2009,
    France accepted two Algerian/Bosnian former detainees
    and resettled them in France.

    --------------------------------------------- --
    HAITI: U.S.-FRANCE COOPERATION IN RELIEF EFFORT
    --------------------------------------------- --

    ¶10. (C) Responding immediately to the earthquake on
    January 12, France quickly mobilized physical and
    financial resources to assist Haitian disaster victims
    and has coordinated closely with the U.S. Total French
    official bilateral assistance has risen to about 34
    million dollars. FM Kouchner has been at the forefront
    of French assistance efforts, including participating
    in the January 25 Montreal meeting and offering to host
    a follow-on donors' conference on reconstruction.
    Leading government officials have consistently praised
    the work of the Obama administration on the ground and
    defended the need for a strong U.S. role in the
    emergency response, correcting short-lived stories of
    rising diplomatic tension after a junior minister
    criticized the U.S. role in Haiti on January 16.
    France seeks to be a partner with us on relief,
    including assisting orphans.

    ---------------------------------------------
    FRANCE-CHINA RELATIONS BACK ON TRACK, FOR NOW
    ---------------------------------------------

    ¶11. (C/NF) After a year-long campaign, Paris has
    successfully restored productive working relations with
    Beijing following a chill in relations that began with
    Sarkozy's December 2008 meeting with the Dalai Lama and
    the subsequent Chinese retaliation. France has
    aggressively promoted its interests in China; a series
    of high-level bilateral exchanges in 2009 included
    visits to China by the Prime Minister, the Economy Minister,
    and the National Assembly President. Sarkozy has
    agreed to open the Shanghai Expo in June, and President
    Hu is expected to pay an official visit this year.
    Despite the investment in restoring Franco-Chinese
    ties, Sarkozy has not shied from blaming the PRC for
    stalling a climate change agreement in Copenhagen, has
    expressed his discontent recently with China's
    exchange-rate policy, and is reportedly dismayed that
    China is getting a "free ride" while the West pays the
    overhead on international economic and security
    structures.

    PARIS 00000079 005 OF 005

    --------------------------------------
    THE ECONOMIC CRISIS AND EXCHANGE RATES
    --------------------------------------

    ¶12. (SBU) The French economy has been hit less hard by
    the crisis than other EU members or than the United States,
    in part because of an extensive social welfare system and
    the large proportion of government spending in GDP even in
    normal times. In addition, President Sarkozy moved
    early and vigorously to combat the crisis domestically and
    internationally. France is deeply engaged in managing
    the transition from the G8 to the G20 and will chair both
    groups in 2011. Sarkozy has also been militant on the
    need for governments to rein in the financial sector.
    President Obama's latest announcements on bank size and
    trading activities will be well received by the GOF.

    ¶13. (C) Sarkozy is personally preoccupied with the
    weakness of the dollar and exchange rate volatility
    more broadly. The competitiveness of French big ticket
    exports -- aircraft, nuclear reactors, highspeed trains
    -- is particularly hard hit. Consistent with his views
    that the state can often make better decisions than the
    market, Sarkozy favors a more managed exchange rate system
    (as well as a more regulated international oil price).
    He has found little support for these ideas outside
    France.

    ------------------------------
    CLIMATE CHANGE POST-COPENHAGEN
    ------------------------------

    ¶14. (C) The GOF supports the Copenhagen Accord and is
    encouraging African countries to sign on as well.
    Sarkozy said the Accord "is not a revolution, but it is
    the start of a revolution". The GOF has not yet decided
    on a strategy to move forward but is considering alternative
    negotiating groups, broader than the Major Economies
    Forum (MEF), but smaller that the full UN membership.
    Sarkozy likely has his own views on tactics. He understands
    the USG's conundrum of synchronizing international
    commitments with domestic legislative action, but is
    eager to have firm action by the United States.

    ¶15. (SBU) Madam Secretary, all three U.S. missions in
    Paris are looking forward to your visit and to this
    opportunity to discuss these important topics with one
    of our most active European partners. Your visit will
    help us leverage French global influence to advance our
    key policy priorities with France, around the world.
    RIVKIN

`