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### Viewing cable 06THEHAGUE1782, NETHERLANDS/LEBANON/VENEZUELA/JSF: AMBASSADOR

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
06THEHAGUE1782 | 2006-08-14 15:03 | 2011-01-17 00:12 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy The Hague

`

    VZCZCXRO9888
    PP RUEHDBU RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHROV RUEHSR
    DE RUEHTC #1782/01 2261543
    ZNY CCCCC ZZH
    P 141543Z AUG 06
    FM AMEMBASSY THE HAGUE
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 6543
    INFO RUEHXK/ARAB ISRAELI COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
    RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
    RUEHGG/UN SECURITY COUNCIL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY

` `

    C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 THE HAGUE 001782

    SIPDIS

    SIPDIS

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/14/2016
    TAGS: PREL PGOV UNSC MOPS NL
    SUBJECT: NETHERLANDS/LEBANON/VENEZUELA/JSF: AMBASSADOR
    ARNALL'S 8/14 MEETING WITH PM BALKENENDE

    REF:...

    74802,8/14/2006 15:43,06THEHAGUE1782,"Embassy The
    Hague",CONFIDENTIAL,06THEHAGUE1768,"VZCZCXRO9888
    PP RUEHDBU RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHROV RUEHSR
    DE RUEHTC #1782/01 2261543
    ZNY CCCCC ZZH
    P 141543Z AUG 06
    FM AMEMBASSY THE HAGUE
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 6543
    INFO RUEHXK/ARAB ISRAELI COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
    RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
    RUEHGG/UN SECURITY COUNCIL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY","C O N F I D E N T
    I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 THE HAGUE 001782
    SIPDIS
    SIPDIS
    E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/14/2016
    TAGS: PREL PGOV UNSC MOPS NL
    SUBJECT: NETHERLANDS/LEBANON/VENEZUELA/JSF: AMBASSADOR
    ARNALL'S 8/14 MEETING WITH PM BALKENENDE
    REF: A. THE HAGUE 1768
    ¶B. THE HAGUE 1766
    Classified By: AMBASSADOR ROLAND ARNALL FOR REASONS 1.4 (B/D).

    ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Dutch Prime Minister Balkenende is confident
    his Christian Democrats (CDA) will do better than originally
    expected in the upcoming November elections, possibly even
    beating Labor (PvdA) to remain the largest party in
    Parliament. Balkenende welcomed the adoption of UNSCR 1701
    on Lebanon, but was noncommittal on a possible Dutch
    contribution to a peacekeeping force. On Venezuela,
    Balkenende stressed that Dutch remain concerned about Chavez'
    ambitions but feel they must take a ""subtle"" approach to
    dealing with him. The Prime Minister remains committed to
    the Joint Strike Fighter (JSF) project but wants to avoid
    handing an election issue to the opposition. Ambassador
    Arnall briefed Balkenende on upcoming Embassy plans to
    promote diversity and Muslim outreach and received an
    enthusiastic response. END SUMMARY.

    DOMESTIC POLITICS: CDA ON THE REBOUND:
    ---------------------------------------

    ¶2. (C) During a 45 minute tour d'horizon meeting with
    Ambassador Arnall on August 14, an obviously well-rested
    Prime Minister Balkenende expressed cautious optimism about
    the Christian Democrats' (CDA) prospects for November's
    parliamentary elections. He noted that the gap between CDA
    and the leading opposition Labor Party (PvdA) had narrowed
    dramatically since the local elections last March, when polls
    showed PvdA leading by 30 seats; today, only a few seats
    (4-5) separated the two parties. Balkenende credited the
    shift primarily to the strong performance of the Dutch
    economy -- which, he said, vindicated the government's tough
    reform policies -- but said that PvdA leader Wouter Bos'
    missteps on pension reform and other issues were also
    contributory factors. Balkenende made clear that the CDA
    intended to campaign vigorously on his government's record in
    upcoming months.

    LEBANON: DUTCH STILL CAUTIOUS ON PEACEKEEPING ROLE:
    --------------------------------------------- -------

    ¶3. (C) Turning to the Middle East, Ambassador Arnall thanked
    the Dutch for their strong demonstration of support for UNSCR
    1701 (reftel) and generally responsible approach to the
    conflict. Balkenende reiterated Dutch support for the
    resolution, but stressed that implementation on the ground
    could be difficult. In response to the Ambassador's query,
    Balkenende said the Dutch ""did not rule out"" participating in
    the anticipated peacekeeping force in some way at some point
    in the future, but argued that taking on a new military role
    would be extremely difficult at this time. Dutch forces, he
    noted, are currently deployed in Africa, the Balkans, Iraq
    (via NTM-I), and Afghanistan. Adding a new mission during an
    election year may be too much to ask. Echoing a familiar
    Dutch theme, Balkenende added that the anticipated deployment
    provided a good opportunity for ""other allies"" who are not as
    stretched to shoulder greater international responsibilities.

    VENEZUELA: ""SUBTLE"" APPROACH NEEDED:
    -------------------------------------

    ¶4. (C) Noting recent Dutch mixed signals regarding
    Venezuela's bid for a UN Security Council Seat (ref b),
    Ambassador Arnall pushed for a clear sign of support for
    Guatemala. Balkenende responded that the issue was being
    reviewed by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. He stressed,
    however, that the GONL remained deeply concerned by Chavez'
    ""meddling"" in the Dutch Antilles and elsewhere. While the
    Dutch agreed completely on the need to restrain Chavez'
    ambitions, they had no interest in needlessly provoking a
    large and powerful neighbor. For that reason, Balkenende
    argued that the Dutch had no choice but to deal ""subtly"" with
    the Venezuelan threat.

    JOINT STRIKE FIGHTER: POLITICAL HOT POTATO:
    --------------------------------------------

    ¶5. (C) Ambassador Arnall briefed Balkenende on the upcoming
    Parliamentary visit (septel) to the United States to review
    the current state of play on the Joint Strike Fighter (JSF)
    project. Balkenende said that his government remained
    committed to the project, but cautioned that it could become
    a difficult issue in an election year. While some senior
    PvdA leaders, he noted, understood that the JSF was ""the best
    plane for the best price,"" Balkenende worried that, in the
    THE HAGUE 00001782 002 OF 002
    heat of an election campaign, more extreme elements would
    force the party to take a hard-line position -- one it would
    then not be able to change if/when the PvdA came into
    government.

    MUSLIM OUTREACH/DIVERSITY DIALOGUE: DUTCH SOCIETY CHANGING:
    --------------------------------------------- ---------------

    ¶6. (C) Balkenende expressed strong interest in the Embassy's
    plans to host a ""Diversity Dialogue"" conference bringing
    Dutch and U.S. Muslim communities together in November, as
    well as in its plans to host a follow-up conference on
    diversity in the workplace. He pointed out that during the
    Dutch EU Presidency in 2004, he had personally promoted a
    European-wide discussion of ""values and norms."" Such issues
    were critical given the demographic and social changes
    occurring in the Netherlands and elsewhere in Europe.
    Balkenende agreed with the Ambassador that providing real
    economic opportunities for immigrants was one of the most
    important steps in the integration process.

    COMMENT:
    --------

    ¶7. (C) Recently returned from vacation -- during which Dutch
    papers ran photos of him sunning on a Mediterranean beach --
    Balkenende appeared confident and relaxed throughout the
    meeting. The devastating results of the March local
    elections -- after which Balkenende's personal polls reached
    historic lows -- and June's government crisis are clearly
    behind him; if anything, these events appear to have
    energized both Balkenende and the CDA for the difficult fight
    ahead. While the CDA still lags behind PvdA in most polls,
    they are gaining ground and -- unlike the PvdA -- can count
    on at least one other large party -- the Liberals (VVD) -- to
    help form a majority in Parliament and serve in a coalition
    government. The real campaigning will not begin in earnest
    for several weeks, but Balkenende appears not only up to the
    challenge, but positively eager to at last have an
    opportunity to get his message out to the public.
    ARNALL

`