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### Viewing cable 06PARIS1031, SEGOLENE ROYAL DISCUSSES STRATEGY FOR 2007, TRIP

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
06PARIS1031 | 2006-02-17 16:04 | 2010-12-01 12:12 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy Paris

`

    This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

` `

    C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 PARIS 001031

    SIPDIS

    DEPT ALSO FOR EUR/WE, DRL/IL, INR/EUC, EUR/ERA, EUR/PPD,
    AND EB
    DEPT OF COMMERCE FOR ITA
    DEPT OF LABOR FOR ILAB

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/07/2015
    TAGS: PGOV ELAB EU FR PINR SOCI ECON
    SUBJECT: SEGOLENE ROYAL DISCUSSES STRATEGY FOR 2007, TRIP
    TO U.S. WITH AMBASSADOR

    REF: A. (A) EMBASSY PARIS DAILY REPORT FOR FEBRUARY 17

    ¶B. 2006
    ¶C. (B) EMBASSY PARIS DAILY REPORT FOR FEBRUARY 10
    ¶D. (C) EMBASSY PARIS DAILY REPORT FOR FEBRUARY 6
    ¶E. (D) EMBASSY PARIS DAILY REPORT FOR JANUARY 20
    ¶F. (E) EMBASSY PARIS DAILY REPORT FOR DECEMBER 19
    ¶G. 2005
    ¶H. (F) EMBASSY PARIS DAILY REPORT FOR SEPTEMBER 23

    Classified By: Ambassador Craig Stapleton for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)

    ¶1. (C) Summary: In a February 8 meeting with Ambassador,
    Socialist Party (PS) presidential hopeful, current media
    darling and president of the Poitou-Charentes region Segolene
    Royal left no doubt as to her determination to win election
    as president of France in 2007. She matter-of-factly
    assessed her high poll numbers, expressing the conviction
    that her focus on family, school, and social services issues,
    along with her popularity among ordinary people, make her a
    potent political force. (Current polls show that Royal could
    make a formidable candidate in France's presidential
    election, now 14 months away. These polls show she is one of
    only two or three contenders that over half of voters now say
    they could be willing to vote for as president.) Conceding
    that "polls are not elections (ref D)" but adding that "they
    stop being in error about six months before the elections,"
    Royal expressed optimism that her popularity would hold until
    then -- and for six months thereafter, notwithstanding the
    predictions of pundits to the contrary. Royal went to
    considerable lengths to express her openness and friendliness
    towards the U.S. and mentioned the possibility of visiting
    Washington during an upcoming trip to New York to speak at
    Columbia University. End summary.

    A DISARMINGLY DIRECT PRESIDENTIAL HOPEFUL
    -----------------------------------------

    ¶2. (C) In her discussion with Ambassador Stapleton and
    Embassy officers on February 8, Segolene Royal lived up to
    her image as an uncommonly charismatic, subtle and determined
    politician. She very matter-of-factly reviewed her
    sustained, high poll numbers (ref C) and made no bones about
    her intention to pursue the presidency so long as "other
    people think it's possible for me." Unaffectedly applying to
    herself the term "willful" often used about her by
    detractors, Royal said she was determined to stay in the
    presidential race until eliminated or victorious. (Comment:
    According to a recent biography of Royal, she wanted to test
    the waters by running in 2002, and rues having allowed
    herself to be discouraged from doing so by fellow PS
    heavyweights. In this biographer's account, she is
    determined to stay in there to the end this time around. End
    comment.)

    "I'M THE ONE TO BEAT" FOR THE PS NOMINATION
    -------------------------------------------

    ¶3. (C) Royal betrayed no qualms about her ability to shape
    to her benefit the process that is leading to the PS's
    selection of a candidate for 2007 by primary vote among party
    members next November. In contrast to her public remarks
    about securing the PS nomination, where she often quotes
    former president Mitterrand in saying that, in politics "you
    have to give time to time," Royal was much more direct with
    the Ambassador, shrugging off the chances of her more senior
    rivals in the PS by pointing out that, "I'm the one to beat."
    (Note: Among PS party members, who will be the only voters
    in next November's party primary, Royal's current popularity
    ratings nearly double those of her nearest rival, former
    prime minister Lionel Jospin. The popularity of Royal, as a
    potential presidential standard bearer has risen steadily
    among party members since last summer (ref F). Among the
    public at large, she also far outpaces Jospin and other PS
    heavyweights in current polls as the most preferred PS
    presidential candidate. End Note.)

    ¶4. (C) Royal said that the attraction of winning -- with her
    as the standard-bearer most clearly able to deliver victory
    -- was a powerful galvanizer of opinion among party members.
    She judged that her relatively junior standing as a party
    leader and alleged lack of qualifications need not stand in
    the way of her garnering enough support to win from among the
    party's 130,000 card-carrying members. Briefly reviewing her
    electoral and governmental record, she believed her
    experience was more than adequate to overcome any qualms
    party members (and thereafter, voters) might have about it.
    (Note and comment: Royal has been elected to the National
    Assembly four times; has served junior minister for the
    environment, junior minister for elementary education and
    junior minister for families, children and the handicapped.
    Most recently (in 2004) she won the presidency of the
    Poitou-Charentes region, beating the hand-picked candidate of
    then Prime Minister Raffarin. Royal's is a distinguished
    record of achievement and experience. What issue there may
    be over her qualifications within the PS has to be seen in
    light of, for example, former prime minister Laurent Fabius'
    experience as prime minister, president of the National
    Assembly, head of the PS party group in the National
    Assembly, minister of economy and finance and regular
    re-election to parliament since 1978. Since the February 8
    meeting, it has become obvious that former prime minister
    Jospin, in many ways the party's most senior figure, is
    actively seeking the nomination (ref A). End Note and
    comment.)

    GOLD-PLATED IMAGE PLUS FAMILIES-SCHOOLS-NEIGHBORHOODS
    --------------------------------------------- --------

    ¶5. (C) Royal outlined a carefully crafted strategy designed
    to cast her as the candidate of safe change -- i.e., the
    candidate who answers best French voters' simultaneous
    eagerness for change and fear of it. Royal said that she
    believed "people want a new kind of political discourse."
    This conviction, she continued, was prompting her to skip the
    political talk shows and deliberately focus instead on the
    family, school and environmental issues that are her strength
    and "are what matter most to ordinary people." She argued
    that her focus on "soft" social services issues, coupled with
    her very positive public image, her sterling center-left
    credentials and proven effectiveness as a grass-roots
    politician, make her a potent political force. Royal said
    that the core of her candidacy is "having the courage to have
    confidence in the voters."

    NOT A LOT OF POLICY SPECIFICITY
    -------------------------------

    ¶6. (C) Royal spoke in very general, indeed, rather vague,
    terms about what she stands for as a presidential candidate.
    (Comment: Given her popularity, it is probably not in her
    interest to furnish policy prescriptions at this time lest
    she alienate potential supporters. End comment.) She
    described a crisis of confidence among ordinary French people
    who, she said, "are prey to a feeling of decline." She
    evoked how prospects for those in the middle class are
    shrinking, for their children even more so. She pointed to
    narrowing the quality gap between France's elite schools and
    its regular schools and universities as key to
    re-invigorating upward mobility in French society. She also
    criticized the Villepin government's emphasis on employment
    as the engine of upward mobility, lamenting the
    "destabilizing effects" for family life of the increased job
    insecurity implicit in many of the government's employment
    initiatives. Royal said that she would like "to lead a
    national project" that would succeed by renewing "hope in the
    people." Implicitly addressing criticism directed against
    the absence of a program, Royal noted that the successful
    record of the Jospin government didn't prevent him from
    losing in his bid for the presidency in 2002, concluding that
    "you don't win elections on your record or your program" but
    rather on the expectations generated by a candidacy.

    OPENNESS TO THE U.S.
    --------------------

    ¶7. (C) Though she did not dwell on foreign policy issues,
    Royal did make an effort to convey openness towards the U.S.
    Echoing the remarks of other political interlocutors across
    the board, she duly noted her opposition to the U.S. invasion
    of Iraq but went to considerable length in assuring the
    Ambassador that a socialist government would "never have
    actively campaigned against the U.S. in Africa," for example,
    and would have handled differences in a more understanding
    and less confrontational manner than President Chirac and
    then-FM de Villepin. Royal recalled, with evident fondness,
    her work organizing the 1981 Versailles Summit between
    Presidents Reagan and Mitterrand. This was her first
    experience with presidential-level diplomacy and apparently
    involved liaising with the U.S. Secret Service; Royal
    expressed her surprise, at the time, discovering the massive
    logistical underpinnings required by such events. Royal also
    made clear, through a reference to watching "Desperate
    Housewives," that she did not reject American popular
    culture. Royal did not augment her friendly sentiments
    toward the U.S. with any vision for U.S.-France relations.
    She did suggest a need "to find France's place in the world,"
    with the GoF showing less arrogance in how it speaks to the
    world. The latter factor, she suggested, had played a role
    in the defeat of France's 2012 Olympics candidacy.

    ¶8. (U) Royal said she would be visiting the U.S. soon,
    probably in the context of accepting an invitation to speak
    at Columbia University in New York this spring. She
    mentioned the possibility of also visiting Washington at that
    time. The Ambassador said he would be pleased to work with
    her and her staff to design an appropriate program.

    COMMENT
    -------

    ¶9. Royal clearly believes her determination, concern for
    ordinary people and uncommon mix of strengths as a candidate
    make her a real contender, notwithstanding the predictions of
    pundits and her political rivals that the "Segolene
    phenomenon" will not last. Opponents, whether from
    center-right (with the exception of Interior Minister
    Sarkozy) or her own center-left, either insist on her
    "unfitness" for the job (ref D) or suggest she is a stalking
    horse for a "draft" of former PM Jospin. Although it is not
    unfair to be skeptical about Royal's staying power or even
    her qualifications, it is also true that much of the
    disparagement of her stems from envy of the popularity of a
    female upstart, who is also challenging the unwritten rules
    of the political establishment. It is also undeniable that
    Royal has managed to tap into the feelings of an electorate
    looking for change.

    ¶10. Royal appeared to be well disposed towards the U.S.
    That said, as is the case for many on the left of the French
    political spectrum, it would be a mistake to translate a high
    comfort level with American culture into approval for a wide
    range of U.S. polices, foreign and domestic. Royal has only
    made brief trips to the U.S. as a tourist. End comment.
    Please visit Paris' Classified Website at:
    http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/paris/index.c fm

    Stapleton

`