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### Viewing cable 10ADDISABABA288, AU SUMMIT - A/S FOR AFRICAN AFFAIRS CARSON MEETS

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
10ADDISABABA288 | 2010-02-11 12:12 | 2010-12-17 21:09 | SECRET | Embassy Addis Ababa

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    VZCZCXRO1754
    PP RUEHBZ RUEHDU RUEHMR RUEHPA RUEHRN RUEHTRO
    DE RUEHDS #0288/01 0421214
    ZNY SSSSS ZZH
    P 111214Z FEB 10 ZDS ZDK
    FM AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 7729
    RHEHAAA/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
    INFO RUEHZO/AFRICAN UNION COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
    RUEHRB/AMEMBASSY RABAT PRIORITY 0955
    RUZEFAA/HQ USAFRICOM STUTTGART GE PRIORITY
    RUEPADJ/CJTF HOA PRIORITY
    RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK PRIORITY 8060
    RUEHBS/USEU BRUSSELS PRIORITY
    RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY

` `

    S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 04 ADDIS ABABA 000288

    SIPDIS

    C O R R E C T E D COPY (ADDED PARAGRAPH 24 TO THIS MESSAGE)

    STATE FOR AF/FO, AF/C, AF/RSA, AF/W, AF/E, AF/S, AND S-USSE
    NEA/MAG, STATE ALSO FOR IO/UNP AND NEA/MAG
    PARIS FOR WBAIN
    LONDON FOR PLORD
    NSC FOR MGAVIN
    USEU FOR AFRICA WATCHER

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/10/2020
    TAGS: PREL PGOV AU
    SUBJECT: AU SUMMIT - A/S FOR AFRICAN AFFAIRS CARSON MEETS
    FRENCH COUNTERPART

    ADDIS ABAB 00000288 001.4 OF 004

    Classified By: USAU Ambassador Michael A. Battle, reasons 1.4 (b) and (
    d).

    ¶1. (U) January 30, 2010, 4:00 p.m.; Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

    ¶2. (U) Participants:

    United States
    Assistant Secretary Johnnie Carson
    NSC Senior Director Michelle Gavin
    USAU Ambassador Michael Battle
    Special Advisor for the Great Lakes Howard Wolpe
    USAU A/DCM Joel Maybury
    USAU Political Officer Lauren Ladenson
    AU Desk Officer Ryan Bowles (notetaker)

    France
    Director-General for Africa Stephane Gompertz
    Ambassador to Ethiopia Jean-Christophe Belliard
    Political Officer Frederic Chole

    ¶3. (C) Summary: During a meeting on the margins of the
    African Union Summit, A/S Carson and French Africa Director
    Stephane Gompertz discussed the next steps for Guinea,
    including the ECOWAS observer mission and how to resume
    foreign assistance. On Niger, Gompertz expressed French
    displeasure over Tandja's extension of term, but said
    France had no plans to cut its foreign aid. Turning to
    Nigeria, Gompertz said the January 28 joint statement sent
    a good message. On Madagascar, Gompertz thought that both
    SADC mediator Joaquim Chissano and other parties had made
    huge blunders. He said the French and U.S. positions
    parted ways on who we consider to be at fault. France
    does not favor any of the political actors, including the
    deposed president, while the U.S. considers coup leader
    Rajoelina to be the villain.

    ¶4. (C) Summary (cont): Moving to Chad, Gompertz expressed
    concern about news that the government was demanding an
    end to the MINURCAT peacekeeping mission by March 15. He
    hoped an accommodation could be reached by renaming the
    mission or changing the mandate. On the Great Lakes
    Region, Gompertz said that Paris and Kigali had resumed
    diplomatic relations. He concurred that MONUC should not
    be terminated this year, as the DRC wished. Gompertz
    alleged that Lord's Resistance Army leader Joseph Kony was
    in Khartoum in late 2009, according to sensitive reporting
    from the French DGSE. Finally, on Sahel counter-terrorism
    issues, Gompertz said Algeria was blocking the long-sought
    conference on coordinating counter-terrorism policy in the
    Sahel. End Summary.

    ---------------------------
    Guinea: Progress being made
    ---------------------------

    ¶5. (SBU) A/S Carson met with French Africa Director Stephane
    Gompertz on January 30 on the sidelines of the African Union
    (AU) Summit in Addis Ababa. Carson began by raising Guinea,
    saying that Morocco played a useful role, and things seem to
    be turning out well in Guinea. Burkinabe President Blaise
    Compaore deserves much credit. Secretary Clinton was
    scheduled to call him and offer her thanks soon. Gompertz
    feels that Compaore wants to go slowly because he is
    concerned about supporters of coup leader Dadis Camara using
    force. Paris wants Morocco to continue to be at the center
    of resolution in Guinea, but also does not want to exclude
    the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS).

    ¶6. (SBU) Carson said that the U.S. will participate in the
    upcoming security sector assessment, and we are prepared to
    be financially supportive of these and other upcoming steps
    towards getting Guinea back on its feet. He said we will
    fund elections via the International Foundation for Electoral
    Systems (IFES) and re-establish our substantial aid
    activities. Gompertz said France will also resume, but not
    with any more money than before the coup. Principally,

    ADDIS ABAB 00000288 002.2 OF 004

    France will un-freeze the Conakry-Airport expressway project
    that it was funding.

    ¶7. (SBU) While the U.S. has not passed any names to Guinean
    officials about who would be "unacceptable" for office, the
    French have suggested some members of the National Council
    for Democracy and Development (CNDD) who would be "toxic."
    Carson believes that no military should take part in the
    transition election.

    -----------------------------------
    Nigeria: Joint statement a success
    -----------------------------------

    ¶8. (SBU) Both Carson and Gompertz felt the January 28 joint
    statement was a great success. Carson is pessimistic
    about the situation in Nigeria. We thought ailing President
    Yar'adua was heading back to Abuja last week, but our
    information turned out to be incorrect. Senior Nigerian
    leadership are still engaged in self-deception, evidenced by
    the recent cabinet declaration that Yar'adua is "not
    incapable" of leading. Gompertz said former Nigerian
    President Obasanjo is frustrated by his inability to
    influence the current situation, which he caused by selecting
    a sick Yar'adua as President in 2006. Carson said the U.S.
    wants a stable transition without military involvement.

    -----
    Niger
    -----

    ¶9. (C) France is embarrassed by the situation in Niger,
    created by Nigerien President Tandja's successful hijacking
    of the constitution for a third term in office. Tandja
    told French President Sarkozy in MarchQQQ8'Ve's inability to
    influence the situation, in part because the Nigerien
    opposition is disorganized. According to Gompertz, the
    Nigerien opposition regularly visits Paris and tells of big
    plans to hold demonstrations and rallies, however, in the
    end these events never take place. He believes a military
    coup is possible, and understands from ECOWAS that
    mediation is more or less dead.

    ¶11. (SBU) Carson responded that we had cut all
    non-humanitarian assistance, which was difficult since
    Niger is an important actor on counter-terrorism. Gompertz
    said that France does not intend to cut aid, even though
    his country's assistance makes up nearly half of Niger's
    national budget, because he worries about destabilizing the
    country further. He lamented AU rules, which
    prevented the AU from taking automatic and decisive action
    on Niger because the third term was via constitutional
    means.

    ¶12. (SBU) Gompertz said he will try and see the Nigerien
    Prime Minister soon; according to him, the Foreign Minister
    is moderate but has no leverage. Gompertz said ECOWAS was
    waiting because Nigeria was paralyzed due to Yar'adua's
    condition.

    ------------------------------
    Madagascar: Agree to disagree
    ------------------------------

    ¶13. (SBU) Gompertz raised the subject of Madagascar by
    saying that this was "obviously a very embarrassing
    subject" for France. He thought the Maputo I and Addis
    Ababa agreements were a good start, but that SADC mediator
    Chissano blundered on Maputo III by not having full
    participation by all parties. The recommendations were
    then presented as decisions, when all parties had not
    participated in the agreement.

    ADDIS ABAB 00000288 003.3 OF 004

    ¶14. (SBU) Meanwhile, Gompertz said, coup leader Rajoelina
    was also "stupid" and resorted to unilateral measures like
    canceling his acceptance of Maputo I. France thinks AU
    Chairperson Jean Ping's initiative is a good one, and said
    that former Mozambican President Joachim Chissano was upset
    merely at Ping's method -- not at the substance.

    ¶15. (C) Gompertz said Rajoelina visited Paris recently and
    met with him and President Sarkozy's Africa Advisor
    Joyandet at the Elysee. Joyandet told Rajoelina that
    Ping's proposal was the last deal, and that he cannot avoid
    the co-presidency. Rajoelina had no substantive response.
    Gompertz said his information from Antananarivo indicated
    that Rajoelina would be unable to pay the army from March
    onwards.

    ¶16. (C) Carson said that we need to avoid having the
    mediation favor the "villain" in the situation -- coup
    leader Rajoelina. We favor an inclusive, broad outcome
    with all political actors included. Gompertz responded by
    saying that this was the point of disagreement between the
    U.S. and France -- for France, they are all villains, none
    caring about the Malagasy people.

    -------------
    Chad/MINURCAT
    -------------

    ¶17. (SBU) Government of Chad demands that the UN Mission in
    the Central African Republic and Chad (MINURCAT) leave Chad
    by March 15 are unrealistic, said Gompertz. He noted that
    the Chadians
    believe the mission has done nothing useful, has not built
    anything, and mostly stays at the airport. This is unlike
    the European Union Forces (EUFOR) mission, which Chad thinks
    is a useful endeavor.

    ¶18. (SBU) Carson said it would be a disaster for MINURCAT
    to leave prior to South Sudan's independence referendum in
    March 2011, as we do not yet know if the vote will lead to
    instability along the Chad-Sudan border. Gompertz opined
    that if Chadian President Deby sticks to the March 15
    deadline, we should offer a face-saving device, like
    changing the mission's name or mandate.

    ------------------
    Great Lakes Region
    ------------------

    ¶19. (SBU) Gompertz relayed news that Paris and Kigali
    recently resumed diplomatic relations. French FM Bernard
    Kouchner visited Kigali to mark the occasion. Rwandan
    President Kagame stressed the need for investment and a
    fresh start. Kouchner was impressed by the new Rwandan
    foreign minister. Rwandan talks with Kinshasa are going
    okay, but there is tension in civil society on the talks.
    This tension was explained to Kouchner by the Archbishop of
    Kigali, who said "look, we had a genocide here."

    ¶20. (C) Gompertz said Kouchner discussed the future of the
    UN Mission in Congo (MONUC) while in Kigali, and everyone
    emphasized to him the need to train Rwandan forces. Carson
    said we want to continue MONUC. Gompertz wondered aloud if
    DRC President Kabila wanted to end MONUC for domestic
    political reasons, or so that he could rig the elections.
    Special Advisor Wolpe responded that in his opinion it was
    for domestic political reasons only.

    ¶21. (S) Gompertz said that the French intelligence service
    had sensitive reporting which indicated that Lord's
    Resistance Army leader Joseph Kony was in Khartoum six
    months ago. Carson said that if that were true it would be
    an enormous bad faith gesture by the Sudanese government,
    and would show the north's intention to tear apart the
    Southern independence movement. It would mean that the
    north could not be trusted as an honest partner. Carson

    ADDIS ABAB 00000288 004.3 OF 004

    said we needed to be 100 percent sure before we could act
    on that kind of information.

    -----------------------
    Sahel Counter-terrorism
    -----------------------

    ¶22. (C) Gompertz thinks the security situation in the
    Sahel remains fairly unchanged from the Paris meetings on
    Sahel counter-terrorism (CT) issues six months ago. He said
    Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Mahgreb (AQIM) is expanding into
    northern Burkina Faso and recruiting in Senegal. The DGSE
    believes AQIM will find weakness in northern Nigeria.

    ¶23. (C) Gompertz saw the Malian Foreign Minister on
    January 29. The FM regretted criticism leveled against his
    country for lack of action, and insisted steps were being
    taken against AQIM. He said no one supports the Sahel CT
    conference favored by the West, and that Algeria is
    actively blocking it. Gompertz added that in his view the
    Algerians are dismissive of the problem and do not want to
    act. Carson said he was troubled by the lack of regional
    cooperation. Gompertz said that Sahel issues were poorly
    understood in the EU, and asked Carson to help him educate
    northern and eastern EU member states on the AQIM problem.
    He said that Lisbon implementation made it even harder for
    the EU to take a comprehensive look at the Sahel.

    ¶24. (U) A/S Carson has not cleared this message.

    YATES

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