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### Viewing cable 09BEIJING2063, PRC LEADERSHIP STABLE DESPITE TENSIONS; XI STILL

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
09BEIJING2063 | 2009-07-20 10:10 | 2010-12-28 21:09 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy Beijing

`

    VZCZCXRO1479
    OO RUEHCN RUEHGH RUEHVC
    DE RUEHBJ #2063/01 2011043
    ZNY CCCCC ZZH
    O 201043Z JUL 09
    FM AMEMBASSY BEIJING
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 5286
    INFO RUEHOO/CHINA POSTS COLLECTIVE
    RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC

` `

    C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIJING 002063

    SIPDIS

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/20/3034
    TAGS: PGOV CH
    SUBJECT: PRC LEADERSHIP STABLE DESPITE TENSIONS; XI STILL
    ON TOP

    REF: A. BEIJING 2040
    ¶B. SHENYANG 127

    Classified By: Acting Political Minster Counselor Benjamin Moeling. Re
    asons 1.4 (b/d).

    Summary
    -------

    ¶1. (C) Embassy contacts have reported that relations among
    China's top leaders remained largely stable, and the
    arrangements put in train for succession at the 18th Party
    Congress in 2012 appeared to be holding, with Xi Jinping
    likely to become Party chief and Li Keqiang to become
    Premier. Three years out, however, this succession scenario
    was by no means guaranteed, contacts contended, as a number
    of factors could cause Xi to stumble. End Summary.

    Tense, but Stable, Succession in Place...
    ------------------------------------------

    ¶2. (C) Echoing views we have heard from a number of contacts
    over the past several months XXXXXXXXXXXX, told PolOff
    on May 13 that the Party leadership, in general, was
    "stable." Chen said it was too early to be certain about the
    outcome of the 18th Party Congress in 2012, but that he
    considered Xi Jinping to still be the front runner and Li
    Keqiang the runner-up. On May 26, XXXXXXXXXXXX
    senior editor at the Central Committee paper Guangming Ribao,
    separately agreed that the final succession outcome was too
    early to call but that the situation at the top was stable.
    All the leaders know that they had to hang together, Dong
    said, or they would hang separately. That was the lesson of
    the 1989 Tiananmen unrest and the fall of the former Soviet
    Union, according to Dong.

    ¶3. XXXXXXXXXXXX who served on the Central
    Committee General Office research staff when Premier Wen
    Jiabao was General Office Director in the late 1980s, stated
    in a meeting with PolOffs on May 18 that despite natural
    tensions and differences of view, the leadership was "very
    stable" and will remain so through 2012. In his view, Deng's
    final legacy to the Party was a system designed to avoid the
    vicious infighting of the past. The leadership lineup put in
    place at the 17th Congress was not likely to change, with Xi
    Jinping most likely becoming Party General Secretary and Li
    Keqiang taking the Premier slot.

    Hu to Retain CMC Chair?
    -----------------------

    ¶4. (C) XXXXXXXXXXXX separately predicted that, as things now
    stand, Hu Jintao would probably stay on as Central Military
    Commission Chair at the 18th Party Congress in 2012,
    following the example of former Party chief Jiang Zemin in
    ¶2002. Chen dismissed the possibility of Hu trying to retain
    his positions of General Secretary and President, even though
    there was no formal rule mandating that he step down. There
    was strong consensus in the Party against China's top leader
    serving beyond two five-year "terms." Chen claimed that Li
    Changchun, He Guoqiang, and Zhou Yongkang, widely perceived
    as belonging to the Jiang Zemin-Zeng Qinghong political
    network, had all "sided with" and "supported" Hu Jintao and,
    in return, hoped this would pay dividends for their political
    allies in 2012. As a result, Chen asserted, Hu Jintao was
    now "very strong," even though he still must rule primarily
    through consensus as the "first among equals" among the
    nine-member Politburo Standing Committee (PBSC).

    ... But Succession Sweepstakes Not Set in Stone
    --------------------------------------------- --

    ¶5. (C) XXXXXXXXXXXX said, it
    was still "very early," and Xi could "stumble," potentially
    resulting in changes to the lineup in 2012. For example, if
    Hu's strength continued to grow, Hu might yet try to elevate
    Li Keqiang into the top job, Chen calculated. Chen said that
    the upcoming provincial personnel reshuffles would provide
    one clue to the leadership plans for 2012 as well as a
    barometer to measure Hu's strength.

    ¶6. XXXXXXXXXXXX formerly international page
    columnist of China Youth Daily, told PolOff on March 11 that
    one should not assume that Xi's promotion to Party chief was
    inevitable. Xi's role as PRC Vice President was "useless,"
    Wang said, and there had only been one succession in Party
    history that went according to plan, the transfer of power
    from Jiang Zemin to Hu Jintao in 2002. Wang said that rumors
    continued to circulate that people were trying to undermine

    BEIJING 00002063 002 OF 002

    Xi as heir apparent. Wang claimed that Xi's extended
    diplomatic visits to Mexico and five Latin American and
    Caribbean nations, February 8-23, were unusual for a Vice
    President and speculated that Xi may have been sent hoping he
    would perform poorly and show that he was not cut out to be
    China's top leader. Xi's "inappropriate" comments in Mexico,
    Wang huffed, were unbecoming a Vice President and showed that
    Xi was not very well cultivated (ge ren xiu yang bu hao).
    (Note: In Mexico, Xi lashed out at "idle foreigners with
    nothing better to do" than criticize China.) The CYL group
    still hoped Li Keqiang could takeover from Hu, Wang stated.
    (See Ref B for rumors of possible maneuvering between Xi and
    Li in China's northeast.)

    Wen-Hu Tensions Downplayed
    --------------------------

    ¶7. (C) Chen dismissed reports in Western media of tension
    between Wen and Hu. In particular, he discounted
    interpretations of Wen's absence at the May 12 memorial
    ceremony commemorating last year's Wenchuan earthquake as
    evidence of such tension. Chen stated that it would be
    unusual for both Hu and Wen to appear together at such an
    event, noting that there was only one other Politburo
    Standing Committee member present, seventh-ranking Li
    Keqiang XXXXXXXXXXXX  was not a
    sign of tension with Hu. Wu attributed the absence of Wen
    photographs in the commemorative displays, which many
    observers claimed was a sign of tension because of Wen's high
    profile presence in Wenchuan at the time of the earthquake,
    to political maneuvering by Sichuan Party Secretary Liu
    Qibao. Liu, a CYL-faction official in Hu's camp, was simply
    trying to curry favor with Hu, according to Wu. Wu
    maintained that despite natural differences of views between
    Hu and Wen, the two had a very close working relationship
    which would continue until the next leadership turnover in
    ¶2012. (See Ref A for persistent criticism of Wen Jiabao).

    Jiang and Zeng Retain Influence
    -------------------------------

    ¶8. (C) Wu Jiaxiang said that former Party chief Jiang Zemin
    remained powerful but that his influence was waning over
    time. Chen Jieren similarly told PolOff last fall that Jiang
    could not be dismissed as a factor in leadership politics but
    that his age and ill health were starting to erode his
    authority. Chen dismissed rumors circulating last year that
    Hu Jintao was attempting to undermine Jiang, stating that it
    "made no sense" for Hu to risk provoking a conflict when
    Jiang's influence was already decreasing.

    ¶9. (C) Chen claimed that former PBSC member, and close Jiang
    ally, Zeng Qinghong also retained considerable influence and
    that Jiang exercised influence through Zeng. Wu, who knows
    Zeng Qinghong personally, said that Zeng was still powerful
    and exercised his influence through Xi Jinping. Zeng was one
    of Xi's strong supporters in the General Secretary
    sweepstakes at the 17th Party Congress, according to Wu. Wu
    added that it was not strange that Zeng had withdrawn from
    public view since he retired. In addition to current Party
    norms which favored retired leaders staying out of public
    view, Zeng shunned the limelight of his own accord. In
    addition, Zeng had been suffering from minor health problems
    lately.

    Biographical Note on Zeng Qinghong
    -------------------------

    ¶10. (C) Zeng was one of the most open-minded of all
    contemporary Chinese leaders and was a strong supporter of
    political reform, according to Wu Jiaxiang. In Wu's view,
    had Zeng become Party General Secretary, he would have led
    China toward democracy. While Zeng was a strong supporter of
    former Party paramount leader Deng Xiaoping, Zeng's mindset
    was closer to that of former Party chiefs Hu Yaobang and Zhao
    Ziyang and former Politburo members Wan Li and Xi Zhongxun,
    Wu claimed. In addition, Wu said that Zeng had "a big heart"
    and was somewhat of an unsung hero within the Party who had
    quietly come to the aid of many comrades in trouble. Wu
    related a personal experience with Zeng following the
    military crackdown in Tiananmen Square in 1989 when Wu,
    having attempted suicide, was "covered with blood," and Zeng
    used his influence to ensure that Wu was promptly sent to a
    hospital and treated for his wounds. Zeng "saved my life,"
    Wu related, adding that Zeng had similarly "saved" many other
    people
    GOLDBERG

`