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### Viewing cable 09REYKJAVIK17, ICELAND: PRIME MINISTER DIAGNOSED WITH CANCER, DATE

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
09REYKJAVIK17 | 2009-01-23 17:05 | 2011-01-13 05:05 | UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY | Embassy Reykjavik

`

    VZCZCXRO3885
    OO RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHDA RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHLN
    RUEHLZ RUEHNP RUEHPOD RUEHROV RUEHSK RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
    DE RUEHRK #0017/01 0231737
    ZNR UUUUU ZZH
    O 231737Z JAN 09
    FM AMEMBASSY REYKJAVIK
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 3959
    RHEHAAA/WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON DC IMMEDIATE
    INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
    RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC
    RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHINGTON DC
    RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
    RUEKDIA/DIA WASHDC

` `

    UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 REYKJAVIK 000017

    SENSITIVE

    SIPDIS

    STATE FOR EUR/NB, INR-B
    OSLO FOR DATT
    DOD FOR OSD-P (FENTON)
    TREASURY FOR LAWRENCE NORTON AND ERIC MEYER

    E.O. 12958: N/A
    TAGS: PGOV PINR PREL ECON IC
    SUBJECT: ICELAND: PRIME MINISTER DIAGNOSED WITH CANCER, DATE
    PROPOSED FOR EARLY ELECTIONS

    Refs: A) Reykjavik 012
      B) Reykjavik 013

    ¶1. (U) Summary:  Iceland's Prime Minister stunned the nation on
    January 23 with an announcement that he has been diagnosed with
    esophageal cancer and will not stand for reelection as Independence
    Party chair at the coming national congress.  PM Haarde said he
    received the diagnosis on January 21 and that his doctors have
    recommended immediate surgery; he will go abroad at the end of the
    month as the necessary treatment is not available in Iceland.  At
    the same time, Haarde announced that his party has proposed holding
    early parliamentary elections in May, subject to further discussion
    with their coalition partners in the Social Democratic Alliance.
    Separately, SDA Chair and Foreign Minister Gisladottir is set to
    return to Iceland on January 23 from Sweden, where she was receiving
    treatment for a brain tumor diagnosed last fall.  According to the
    MFA Spokesman, Gisladottir's tumor was confirmed as benign, though
    it will require further treatment.  Though some are hopeful that the
    government will have some breathing room now that elections are set
    for the spring, a shocked Icelandic public is also facing the second
    major illness for one of the country's leaders in six months and is
    concerned about a leadership vacuum at a crucial time.  End
    Summary.

    ¶2.  (U) Following a week of raucous demonstrations and increasing
    political pressure for early Althingi (parliament) elections
    (reftels), the central committee and MPs of Prime Minister Geir
    Haarde's Independence Party (IP) met on January 23 to discuss the
    status of the coalition government.  The previous night, Foreign
    Minister Ingibjorg Solrun Gisladottir, Chair of coalition partner
    the Social Democratic Alliance (SDA) tamped down rumors of an
    immediate government collapse by pledging to maintain the coalition
    if the parties agreed to hold elections this spring.  This sparked
    new rumors that the IP central committee would decide to postpone
    the party's national congress, which had been set for January
    29-February 1, in order to prepare for such elections.

    ¶3.  (SBU) However, PM Haarde stunned the assembled media with an
    announcement that he has been diagnosed with a malignant tumor in
    his esophagus.  A regular medical examination had revealed the tumor
    last week, but on January 21 Haarde was informed that biopsy results
    indicated that it was malignant. He will have to undergo immediate
    medical treatment, which cannot be performed in Iceland and
    therefore he will travel abroad around the end of the month. (NOTE:
    In a subsequent conversation with Ambassador, Haarde's Foreign
    Affairs Advisor did not specify in which country Haarde will be
    treated.  The Ambassador offered assistance and support.  END NOTE.)
     The PM added that his doctors say the prognosis is good and that he
    expects to maintain full working capacity, at least in the next few
    months. Due to his ill health, Haarde has decided not to seek
    reelection at the IP's national congress. He says his decision was
    made easier knowing that there are highly capable leaders to choose
    from in the IP.

    ¶4.  (U) On the question of early elections, Haarde announced that
    the IP will request that parliamentary elections take place on May
    ¶9. He will discuss this proposed date with SDA Chairman Gisladottir
    over the weekend.  Echoing language that Gisladottir used in her own
    statement the previous night, the PM stressed that the coalition
    government will continue to work hard to carry out the tasks that
    are most urgent to rescue households and businesses in Iceland.
    Haarde added that he would make every effort to see to it that
    preparations for the elections and the election campaign do not
    disrupt the economic recovery program which the government is
    implementing in cooperation with the International Monetary Fund.

    ¶5.  (U) In connection with the spring elections, the IP has also
    decided to postpone its national congress until March 26-29. The
    party will draft its election platform and select a new chairman
    that will lead the party in the upcoming elections.  (COMMENT:  As
    reports have grown in recent weeks of discord within the IP over the
    question of joining the European Union, this may also give the party
    a further chance to coalesce around the idea -- or wake up to
    reality, depending on whom you ask -- of approving a pro-EU
    platform.  END COMMENT.)

    Foreign Minister's Health:  Better News
    ---------------------------------------

    REYKJAVIK 00000017  002 OF 002

    ¶6.  (SBU) Separately, the MFA sent out a press release January 23
    announcing FM Gisladottir's return to Iceland from Sweden, where she
    has been undergoing medical treatment for a brain tumor over the
    past week.  (NOTE:  Gisladottir was diagnosed with a tumor in the
    fourth cerebral ventricle after collapsing during the UN General
    Assembly in New York this past September.  She underwent brain
    surgery before returning to Iceland and has had one subsequent
    procedure here in Reykjavik prior to her trip to Sweden last week.
    END NOTE.)  This morning, her doctors confirmed that the tumor, most
    of which was removed in surgery, was benign. She will not be
    admitted to the National Hospital in Reykjavik upon her arrival as
    had previously been announced, but instead will rest at home and
    will therefore be absent from work for some time.  The MFA's
    spokeswoman confirmed to DCM that the tumor was indeed benign,
    though it had been behaving "peculiarly" and had given rise to fears
    that it was in fact malignant.  The spokeswoman was visibly relieved
    to have heard the news about Gisladottir's health.

    ¶7.  (SBU) Staffers at the Foreign Ministry had been bracing for the
    worst, as Gisladottir's prolonged treatment in Sweden appeared to
    counter earlier claims that the tumor was benign.  Despite some
    policy disputes on certain issues, the FM is very popular among the
    ministry rank-and-file, a surprising development for those used to
    thinking of the MFA as a building full of IP and Progressive Party
    ideologues.  The leadership vacuum at the MFA -- due to
    Gisladottir's illness as well as that of her deputy, the Permanent
    Secretary, who is battling colon cancer -- has been an evident
    strain on the ministry over the last six months.

    A stunned, worried public
    -------------------------

    ¶8.  (SBU) The public reaction to the PM's ill health can only be
    described as utter shock. Even though most offer the PM their
    condolences, people are worried about how the country will be run,
    and who will really be holding the reins of power. After the
    intensifying political tension of this week, a number of
    commentators are relieved to hear that elections will likely be held
    in May.  Independence Party stalwarts tell us that they are relieved
    to have some explanation for what one called Haarde's "strange"
    behavior in recent weeks, and are hopeful that the IP will now have
    a chance to set a clear course and regain the nation's support.
    However, outside the IP, with both the PM and FM afflicted with
    serious illness, some think that the proposed May 9 date is too far
    away.  In particular, MPs from the Left-Green Party used the PM's
    announcement as a reason to renew their calls for immediate
    elections.  There are also doubts regarding the PM's and FM's
    ability to be fully functional when they return to work after
    recovering from medical treatment.

    ¶9.  (U) Bloggers and political commentators are already suggesting
    who will be likely candidates for the chair of the IP. The most
    often mentioned are MP Bjarni Benediktsson; Minister of Health
    Gudlaugur Thor Thordarson; Minister of Education and Deputy Chair
    Thorgerdur Katrin Gunnarsdottir; MP Kristjan Thor Juliusson; and
    even political veteran and former PM and chair Thorsteinn Palsson.

    ¶10.  (U) On the practical question of who will run the country,
    party rules and the coalition agreement designate Minister of
    Education and IP Deputy Chair Gunnarsdottir as Acting Prime Minister
    should the PM take leave of his office.

    ¶11.  (SBU) Comment:  Iceland, already stunned by the demonstrations
    of the past week and the economic collapse, is now jolted by another
    serious blow.  The lack of leadership at the top of the SDA has been
    evident throughout Gisladottir's illness, and many here fear that a
    similar vacuum will develop with the Prime Minister absent.  Others,
    particularly within the IP, are more hopeful that with a clear date
    set for elections, pressure on the government will ease somewhat and
    allow the parties to simply go about the business of governing and
    preparing for a critical economic program review by the IMF in
    February (septel).

    VAN VOORST

`